U.S. jobs report

• Average hourly earnings (compared to the same period last year) (y/y) (December),  fact 3.2%,  forecast 3.0%.
• Average hourly earnings (m/m) (December), fact 0.4%, forecast 0.3%.
• Nonfarm payrolls (December), fact 312K, forecast 178K.
• Private nonfarm payrolls (December), fact 301K, forecast 175K.
• Unemployment rate (December), fact 3.9%, the forecast 3.7%.

The US jobs report for December was very positive due to the change in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector. This indicator showed an unexpected increase, approaching close to annual maximums. Additional support was provided by data on wage growth, which indicates a more significant increase in the target inflation rate in the United States. The unemployment rate, which grew, but remains near historic lows, has been a deterrent to the employment report.

Fig. 1. U.S. nonfarm payrolls chart

Positive employment data in the United States returned optimism to the US currency and resumed an uptrend in the dollar index, which in the conditions of the repulse from the level of 96.20 opens the way for buyers to 96.50 and 96.70 marks. The risk factor remains the speech of the US Federal Reserve Chairman, who can resume the pessimism on American dollar thanks to dovish rhetoric. Support levels are: 96.20 and 96.00.

Fig. 2. The US dollar index chart. The current price is 96.40 (10-year government bonds yield is the blue line)

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Andre Green

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