Политические риски кандидатов в премьер-министры Великобритании
Политические риски

Political risks are escalating around candidates for the Prime Minister in the UK

After the current British Prime Minister T. May announced the date of her resignation on June 7, the political risks in the UK around Brexit shifted priority to the political risks around the candidature of the minister. The situation with political risks can be found in the article “Political risks in the UK increase the chances of Brexit without a deal.”

Front runners

According to preliminary forecasts, extremely radical candidates may take the post of the British Prime Minister. There are 12 candidates for the post of the British Prime Minister. But out of this set there are two clear leaders: the  Conservative leader Boris Johnson and Labor leader Jeremy Corbin. Moreover, both candidates are very eccentric and the victory of any one preserves a lot of risks.

Conservative leader Boris Johnson is a supporter of Brexit and can support a British exit from the EU without a deal. He is an ardent euro skeptic and, before the Brexit referendum, made very loud statements about the EU. Therefore, in the event of his victory in the race for the post of the Prime Minister, a significant deterioration in relations with the Eurozone is not excluded and, as a result, a tough Brexit.

An additional plus for Boris Johnson’s candidacy is his support by the US President D. Trump and support in the Conservative Party. But the British government and the ruling coalition are not ready to go for Brexit without a deal, given the possibility of losing even the terms that T. May chose during the negotiations.

The complete political opposite is Jeremy Corbin. He can bring Brexit to the logical end without significant losses in terms of obtaining significant support. But this candidacy is clearly exacerbate UK relations with the United States and has low popularity among investors because of promises to raise taxes.

The third force remains the parliament itself, which will elect a person to the post of prime minister of Great Britain. In addition to the election of the Prime Minister himself, an active parliament should be formed around this candidate, without which a tough Brexit might not look as dangerous as a disabled UK government in the face of significant risks.

Therefore, pre-determined candidates should already be able to find compromises in the government so as not to aggravate the already difficult situation in the UK.

Anton Hanzenko

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