U.K. Employment Data

• Average earnings with bonuses (Sept),  fact  3.6%,  forecast 3.8%.
• Claimant count change (October), fact 33.0K, forecast 24.2K.
• Employment change, 3m/3m (m/m) (Sept), fact -58K, forecast -94K.
• Unemployment rate (September),  fact  3.8%,  forecast  3.9%.

The UK employment report for September was mixed. The negative side of the report was a decrease in wages and an increase in the number of applications for unemployment benefits. First of all, it will negatively affect consumer inflation. Positive data was a decrease in unemployment to historical lows.

Fig. 1. Average earnings with bonuses in the UK

As a result, the British pound has modestly strengthened on data from the UK. Since the decline in unemployment remains a key indicator, and the slowdown in wage growth meets the statistical error, maintaining upward momentum.

As a result, the GBP/USD pair has received a support, but is limited by Brexit risks and attempts to correct after growth, while maintaining a downtrend and trading range from 1.2870-1.2900 to 1.2800-1.2770.

Fig. 2. GBP/USD chart

Hanzenko Anton

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