U.K. data - Ester Holdings

U.K. data

  • Business investment (q/q) (Q3), fact 0.0%, forecast -0.5%.
  • GDP (q/q) (Q3), fact 0.3%, forecast 0.4%.
  • GDP (y/y) (Q3), fact 1.0%, forecast 1.1%.
  • Industrial production (m/m) (September), fact -0.3%, forecast -0.2%.
  • Manufacturing production (m/m) (September), fact  -0.4%, forecast -0.3%.
  • Trade balance (September), fact -12.54B, forecast -10.00B.
  • Trade balance, excluding EU countries (Sept), fact -4.03B, forecast -2.50B.

The published data on the UK turned out to be very negative, showing a slowdown in the UK economy, both in production and trade, and the UK economy as a whole. If the decrease in the trade balance and industrial production meets the statistical error, then the decline in GDP growth accelerated the decline and fell to mid-2013 levels.

Fig. 1. U.K. GDP (y/y) (Q3) chart

The British pound reacted very restrained to these weak statistics, which is associated with low market activity and the expectation of weak data after a meeting of the Bank of England. Based on these statistics, the GBP/USD pair is likely to limit the upward correctional trend, maintaining a restrained downward movement in the flat, limiting itself to the trading range from 1.2820-50 to 1.2770-40.

Fig. 2. GBP/USD chart

Read also: “Aggravation of the US – eurozone trade tension”

Hanzenko Anton


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