EUR/USD today: a single currency is waiting for the ECB meeting results

Wednesday trading closed with a general decline in the US dollar on a statement by the adviser of the White House Hasset, who expects to conclude a trade agreement between the US and China before March 1. He also noted the significant losses of the US economy due to the US shutdown. As a result, the EUR/USD pair also received support and updated a high at 1.1390. With the opening of trading on European markets, American dollar’s optimism returned to the market and caused a rapid correction, which was reinforced by weak data on business activity in the eurozone and negative expectations regarding the ECB meeting.

Events for today:

• 14:45 – The results of the ECB meeting will be published: the rate on deposit funds, ECB marginal lending facility and the interest rate decision (January).
• 15:30 –  initial jobless claims in the United States will be announced.
• Also at 15:30 –  the ECB will hold a press conference.
• 16:45 – data on business activity in the USA are coming out: manufacturing business index (PMI) (January), Markit composite business index (PMI) (January) and service sector index (PMI) in the service sector (January) .
• 18:00 – will announce the oil inventories in the United States.

The day today is filled with news, among which the ECB meeting results and the press conference of Draghi deserve special attention. With the global economy slowing down and the difficult situation in Europe, the upcoming ECB meeting does not expect optimistic comments. On the contrary, there is a high probability that the ECB will cut its forecasts for inflation and economic growth in the eurozone.

EUR/USD remains under the pressure from negative sentiment, returning to the side channel. At the same time, on publication of the ECB protocol and Draghi’s speech, one can expect a noticeable increase in volatility, which can be multidirectional. Therefore, there are no clear expectations for today. Significant resistance: 1.1390-80, and 1.1420 and 1.1450, support: 1.1330-20, 1.1270-50 and 1.1220.

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Hanzenko Anton

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