Meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank
Dear traders,
According to the forecasts of most analysts, the European Central Bank, as a result of its second meeting in the year, will keep the interest rate unchanged when announcing its monetary policy decision at 14:45 today.
ECB President Mario Draghi will hold a press conference 45 minutes after the announcement of the European Central Bank’s decision. For investors, it will be important how Draghi assesses signs of accelerating inflation, and when the ECB begins to wind down its large-scale financial stimulus program of € 2.5 billion.
Most likely, ECB officials will prefer to take a wait-and-see attitude, as they were concerned about recent instability in the markets, appreciation of the euro and a decline in both basic and general inflation in the eurozone. According to three informed sources, the ECB will not change its monetary policy until the summer, when it will signal about the completion of the program of redemption of bonds.
In addition, the ECB should make new macroeconomic forecasts. However, according to informed sources, there will be no surprises, and forecasts for economic growth and inflation will remain virtually unchanged.
In October 2017, the ECB reduced the volume of the monthly repurchase of bonds from € 60 billion to € 30 billion, but extended the financial incentive program until the end of September 2018 due to weak inflation.
The growth rate of the European economy has become the highest in the last ten years. Nevertheless, the growth of inflation remains insufficient. Last month, the inflation rate was minimal since 2016, which confirmed the correctness of the ECB’s cautious position on the gradual reduction of financial incentives.
The focus will also be on the results of Sunday’s parliamentary elections in Italy, as well as the development of the political situation in Germany.
Have a good trading day and high profits!
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