U.S. data

• Core durable goods orders (m/m) (Mar), fact 0.4%, forecast 0.2%, previous value -0.2%.
• Durable goods orders (m/m) (Mar), fact 2.7%, forecast 0.7%,  previous value -1.1%.
• Iinitial jobless claims, fact 230K, forecast 199K, previous value 193K.

Data on durable goods in the US for March were very positive, showing a significant increase in the volume of durable goods. But last week’s values ​​were revised downwards. A particularly negative point of the report was the data on the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States, which unexpectedly rose over the week and were revised downwards. Thus, the latest data on unemployment benefits showed an increase to six-week highs, pointing out significant problems in the US labor market, which in turn causes a noticeable increase in fears about the upcoming US employment report.

Fig. 1. U.S. initial jobless claims chart

As a result, the published data on the United States can be called negative, despite the increase in orders for durable goods. Under the conditions of general overboughtness of the US dollar and pessimism on the stock markets, the US dollar index will be under the pressure, forming a reversal from the resistance level of 98.40-30. The levels of support are the marks: 98.10-00 and 97.80.

Fig. 2. The US dollar index chart. The current price is 98.20 (10-year government bonds yield is the blue line)

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Hanzenko Anton

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