Analysis of the past week - Ester Holdings

Analysis of the past week

Past week was very negative for the US currency and stock markets in general. The reason for the sales of the American dollar and the two-day collapse of the stock markets were the risks around the US-China trade confrontation, which was exacerbated by the risks of the expensive US dollar receiving support from the hawkish Fed comments. Trump stired the pot with his criticism of the Fed and the expensive dollar.

As a result, the US dollar index closes the week near the level of 95.30 in a significant minus and this is against the background of the Friday correction caused by the growth of optimism in the stock markets.  It is an ambiguous picture at the end of the week. Thus, the US dollar index tested a month low at the level of 95.00, which corresponds to the Fibonacci correction level of 50% from September low to October high. Now we see a resumption of growth with the test of 38.2% at the level of 95.30, fixing above which will open the way to 95.60-70 (23.6%). But, on the other hand, the risks for the American dollar remain and the retest 95.00 will eliminate the possibility of American dollar’s growth.

The US dollar index H4 chart. The current price is 95.30 (10-year government bonds yield is the blue line)

Hanzenko Anton

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