Data for the US and Canada

USA:

• Core retail sales index (m/m) (September), fact -0.1%, forecast 0.2%.
• Retail sales (m/m) (September), fact -0.3%, forecast 0.3%.

Canada:

• Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) (y/y) (September), fact 1.9%, forecast 1.9%.
• Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) (m/m) (September), fact 0.0%, previous value -0.1%.
• Consumer Price Index (CPI) (m/m) (September), fact -0.4%, forecast -0.2%.
• The volume of foreign investment in securities of Canada (Aug),  fact 4.99B, previous value -1.87B.

September US retail sales data showed a huge decline. By doing so, they resumed the decline in the US dollar against a basket of competitors. Particularly negative data was the US retail sales, which fell on 0.6%. This is a very negative signal before the holiday season in the United States.

Fig. 1. U.S. Retail Sales Chart

Inflation rates in Canada more than met market expectations, but maintained a downward dynamic. This is indicated by a slowdown in consumer inflation on a monthly basis. Due to which, with high probability, annual inflation in Canada will maintain a downward trend.

Fig. 2. Canadian core consumer price index (CPI) (y) chart

The USD/CAD pair , despite weak data, maintains a downward dynamic, being limited by resistance levels: 1.3230 and 1.3250. Support are the marks: 1.3190 and 1.3150.

Fig. 3. USD/CAD chart

Read also: “The risks of a trade war are back”

Hanzenko Anton

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