Expectations from the US Employment Report (NFP)

The dynamics of the US currency and the market as a whole remains restrained before the publication of data on employment in the US NFP. According to market expectations, the number of jobs created in the non-agricultural sector of the United States is estimated at 184K. A very weak indicator in recent times, but according to preliminary estimates, the real value is closer to 170K. At the same time, unemployment expectations remain unchanged at 4.1%. Also, the role of the NFP report will be played by the quality of the created jobs, namely the hourly wage, which is expected to be 0.3% unchanged.

The positive employment report will provide significant support to the American through an increase in the probability of a rate hike at the March meeting of the US Federal Reserve. But, under conditions existing on the market, the American’s rising dynamics will be limited. On the negative side, the negative report can be perceived more violently by the market due to the persistence of negative expectations about the American. At the same time, the number of newly created jobs of 170K looks very realistic and is already partially included in the cost of an American.

Hanzenko Anton