EUR/USD today: the pair is pending the results of the ECB meeting and the Draghi press conference

On Wednesday, the pair EUR/USD closed lower, thereby updating the minimum of recent months and confirming the safety of the downtrend. The driver of the market is still the US state bonds and correction of positions on the euro before the publication of the ECB protocol.

Events for today:

• 11:30 – the gross volume of approved mortgage loans in the UK.
• 14:45 – the results of the ECB meeting: the deposit rate in the euro area, the margin lending rate in the euro area and the interest rate decision of the ECB.
• 15:30 – data on the US: the volume of shipments of US civilian goods (excluding aircraft), basic orders for durable goods in the US (m/m), the volume of orders for durable goods in the US (m/m) , the balance of foreign trade in US goods and the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the US.
• Also at 15:30 – a press conference of the ECB.

The day is very busy with data on the eurozone and the US, but the market will be focused on the ECB protocol and Dragi press conference, from which investors will expect the hints at curtailing the incentive program (QE) in the EU.

The EUR/USD remains near the bottom of the two-month downtrend channel (1.2150), which may noticeably slow the rising rally of the American. But today the main driver of the market will be expectations about the monetary policy of the eurozone and the pace of the QE. Also today, there will be a press conference by the head of the ECB M. Draghi, from which growth in volatility is expected. The delay in curtailing the incentive program will be regarded by the market as a negative signal for the euro and will increase pressure on this pair. But there are also possible positive signals that will resume interest in the euro. Support levels: 1.2150-40, 1.2100 and 1.2050, resistance: 1.2230-60, 1.2290 and 1.2320-30.

Fig. EUR/USD. The current price is 1.2170.

Hanzenko Anton