Analysis of the past week

The first week of March was very positive for the American currency, which updated a high of four months against the basket of major competitors at the level of 97.70. At the end of the week, the dollar index strengthened by 1.3%, updating the high.

The main drivers for the strengthening of the American dollar were negative sentiment and a general sell-off of the euro on the restrained policy of the ECB. The exacerbation of risks that support the dollar was caused by the persistence of risks on US trade relations. Despite the fact that the actual crisis in the US-China trade relations has passed.

It is worth noting the Friday jobs report in the US, which turned out to be ambiguous due to the low level of new jobs. Therefore, the  correction on th American dollar is likely to intensify. Since the employment report also showed a decrease in unemployment and a growth in wages, the February report cannot be considered completely negative.

A moderate correction is expected from the US dollar index after rising to support levels: 97.20 and 97.00. At the same time, the upward trend in the dollar is likely to continue.

Fig. Thr US dollar index H4 char The current price is 97.40 (10-year government bonds yield is the blue line)

Hanzenko Anton