US employment data
- Average hourly earnings (m/m) (June), fact 0.2%, forecast 0.3%.
- Nonfarm payrolls (June), fact 224K, forecast 160K.
- Private nonfarm payrolls (June), fact 191K forecast 153K.
- The unemployment rate (June), fact 3.7%, forecast 3.6%.
The US employment report for June turned out to be ambiguous. Thus, the growth rates of wages slowed down, indicating a decline in consumer inflation. The negative note of the report was also a increase in unemployment, which retreated from historic lows. But the main indicator of the job market on job creation exceeded all expectations, showing a significant increase in employment, by analogy with the April employment data.
Fig. 1. Graph of changes in the number of people employed in the US non-farm sector
The main focus of the market shifted precisely to the positive part of the US employment report, which caused the ubiquitous growth of the US dollar. Additional support for the American dollar has been restrained by the market throughout the week. But very weak sections of the employment report: unemployment and wage growth will limit the strengthening of the US dollar.
The US dollar index on employment data has broken through a significant resistance level of 96.90-97.00 and is testing the strength of 97.20, while limiting itself to overbought and strong resistance to 97.30-40. Support levels have shifted to 97.00.
Fig. 2. The US dollar index chart. The current price is 97.20 (10-year US government bonds yield is the blue line)
Read also: “Gold. Expectations for February and March 2019″
Hanzenko Anton
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