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Brexit set for delay after May wounded by rejection of ‘no-deal’

LONDON (Reuters) – The British parliament on Wednesday rejected leaving the European Union without a deal, further weakening Prime Minister Theresa May and paving the way for a vote that could delay Brexit until at least the end of June.

After a day of high drama, lawmakers defied the government by voting 321 to 278 in favor of a motion that ruled out a potentially disorderly “no-deal” Brexit under any circumstances.

It went further than the government’s position of keeping the threat of a “no-deal” Brexit on the negotiating table — a stance many in her party said was essential to push Brussels to make further concessions to the deal they have rejected.

While the approved motion has no legal force and ultimately may not prevent a no-deal exit, it carries considerable political force, especially as it passed thanks to a rebellion by members of May’s own Conservative Party and her cabinet.

May, who still insists it is not possible to rule out a no-deal Brexit entirely, said lawmakers would need to agree a way forward before an extension could be obtained.

The European Commission repeated that a delay would indeed require a justification – but positive comments from Germany and Ireland suggested that EU members at last saw a prospect that a viable deal would be found, and were inclined to help.

The pound rose more than 2 percent on the rejection of ‘no-deal’ and was headed for its biggest daily gain this year. [GBP/]

The government said there were now two choices – agree a deal and try to secure a short delay to Brexit, or fail to agree anything and face a much longer delay.

May said her preference was for a short delay, which would mean the government trying to pass the deal she negotiated by the middle of next week.

THIRD ATTEMPT

She hopes to find a way to persuade hardline pro-Brexit lawmakers to back her deal at the third attempt, on the grounds that the alternatives offer a less clean break with the EU.

But on Wednesday evening, senior eurosceptic lawmakers were defiant, with one, Steve Baker, declaring they would keep on voting against May’s deal if it was put forward again.

Another eurosceptic Conservative lawmaker, Andrew Bridgen, said parliament no longer represented “the people”, who had voted for Brexit, by 52 percent to 48, in a referendum in 2016.

“This is very dangerous territory we are going into with regard to our democracy,” he told Reuters.

In the text of a motion scheduled for a vote on Thursday, the government said if a deal was reached by March 20, the day before an EU summit, Britain would ask for the Brexit negotiating period to be extended from March 29, the date set in law, until June 30, just before the new European Parliament meets.

If no deal was agreed by March 20, “then it is highly likely the European Council at its meeting the following day would require a clear purpose for any extension, not least to determine its length, and any extension beyond 30 June 2019 would require the United Kingdom to hold European Parliament elections in May 2019”, the motion said.

After Wednesday’s vote, the European Commission promptly restated its position that it was not enough for parliament to vote against leaving the European Union without a deal — it also needed to find a deal that lawmakers could accept.

“SIGN OF REASON”

Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said the EU would want to know the purpose of any British delay, but added: “I think things look a bit brighter today than they did yesterday.”

German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas welcomed the British vote as “a sign of reason”.

The outcome of the vote angered many pro-Brexit members of the Conservative Party, who had wanted to retain the option of a “no-deal” exit as a bargaining chip, knowing that it would cause disruption in the EU as well as Britain.

After two-and-a-half years of negotiations and two failed attempts to pass the Brexit deal that May agreed with the EU, the vote against a no-deal exit still leaves undecided how, when and on what terms Britain will leave the club it joined in 1973.

After lawmakers crushed her deal for a second time on Tuesday, May said it was still the best option for leaving in an orderly fashion.

If Britain does seek a delay, it will require the agreement of all the bloc’s other 27 members.

The EU would prefer only a short extension, ending before EU-wide parliamentary elections on May 24-26.

May’s deal covers such issues as citizens’ rights, the status of the Irish border and Britain’s divorce bill from the EU. It takes Britain out of the EU single market and customs union, common fisheries and farm policies and the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. It also offers a status-quo transition period in which to negotiate trade arrangements.

Under a no-deal exit, there would be no transition period to soften the disruption to trade and regulations. Britain would quit the EU’s 500 million-strong single market and customs union and fall back on World Trade Organisation rules, which could mean tariffs on many imports and exports.

Asia shares slip after China data, pound near 9-month peak

SYDNEY (Reuters) – Asian shares stumbled on Thursday after Chinese data signaled further weakness in the world’s second-biggest economy while the pound eased off nine-month highs ahead of another Brexit vote.

Spreadbetters pointed to a weak start for Europe while E-minis for the S&P 500 eased 0.1 percent and Dow minis slipped 0.2 percent.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.2 percent after treading water for most part of the day.

Chinese shares were the biggest drag on the index after data showed growth in the country’s industrial output fell to a 17-year low. A mixed bag of major data also showed property investment is picking up, while overall retail sales were sluggish.

Shanghai’s SSE Composite index stumbled 1.2 percent in the aftermath of the figures which suggested more support measures from Beijing were likely, while the blue-chip CSI 300 slipped 0.7 percent.

Japan’s Nikkei gave up early gains to end nearly flat.

Investors were keenly watching the data for clues about the health of China’s economy after growth cooled to 6.6 percent last year.

Despite China’s slowing growth, Asian markets have had an impressive rally this year, with the MSCI index climbing about 10 percent largely after the U.S. Federal Reserve all but abandoned its rate hike plans.

Analysts, however, remain skeptical about how much further the share rally would run as slowing global growth, weak corporate earnings and trade tensions between the United States and China hang heavy on risk assets.

“Before we conclude that this market still has decent legs, we’d like to see equity prices supported by stronger macro data, lifted by better earnings trends, and confirmed by stable-to-rising yields,” David Lafferty, chief market strategist at Natixis, said in a note titled ‘Rally vs Reality’.

The state of U.S.-China trade talks also weighed on investors after President Donald Trump said he was in no rush to complete an agreement. Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping had been expected to hold a summit at the president’s Mar-a-Lago property in Florida later this month, but no date has been set for a meeting.

Most of the action in forex markets was in sterling after the British parliament rejected leaving the European Union without a deal, paving the way for a vote that could delay Brexit until at least the end of June.

The rejection of a no-deal Brexit sent the cable rallying to $1.3380, the highest since June 2018. It jumped 2.1 percent for its best one-day percentage gain since April 2017.

The currency pared back some of those on Thursday and was last down 0.6 percent at $1.3258.

“Yesterday’s vote to reject a no-deal Brexit does not remove the risk of a disorderly Brexit on March 29,” Singapore’s DBS said in a note. “Hence, the pound’s appreciation yesterday is still set on shaky and not on firm foundation.”

Analysts said the real test for sterling was yet to come as lawmakers still need to agree a way forward before an extension on Britain’s exit could be obtained from the European Union.

“If they manage to achieve cross-party support for a deal, likely a ‘softer Brexit’ sort of a deal – this could potentially be very good news for UK assets,” said Russel Silberston, Co-Head of Multi Asset at Investec Asset Management.

“If Parliament fails to come to an agreement, it would go to a second referendum. My concern is that this would call into question the role of Parliament and could have serious future political consequences,” Silberston added.

The euro paused after four straight sessions of gains took it to the highest since March 5. It was last at $1.1317.

The dollar index inched up against a basket of currencies to 96.65. Against the Japanese yen, the greenback was stronger at 111.55.

Oil prices extended overnight gains with U.S. crude up 12 cents per barrel at $58.38 and Brent adding 22 cents to $67.77, boosted by OPEC-led supply cuts, U.S. sanctions against Venezuela and Iran and an unexpected dip in U.S. crude oil stocks and production.

Brexit crisis deepens as lawmakers to vote on no-deal exit

LONDON (Reuters) – The parliament will vote on Wednesday on whether to leave the European Union in 16 days without an agreement as the government said it would eliminate import tariffs on a wide range of goods in a no-deal Brexit scenario.

British lawmakers on Tuesday handed Prime Minister Theresa May a second humiliating defeat on the Brexit plan she had agreed with the EU, plunging the country deeper into political crisis.

The turmoil leaves the world’s fifth largest economy facing a range of scenarios – it could leave without a transition deal; delay the March 29 divorce date enshrined in law; May could hold a snap election or try a third time to get her deal passed; or Britain could hold another Brexit referendum.

On Wednesday, parliament is expected to reject a no-deal Brexit in a vote at 1900 GMT, although this will have no legal force. On Thursday, it will then vote on whether to ask the EU for a delay to Brexit, something to which all the bloc’s other 27 members must agree.

EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said the bloc would need to know why Britain wanted to extend talks and it was up to London to find a way out of the deadlock.

“If the UK still wants to leave the EU in an orderly manner, this treaty is – and will remain – the only treaty possible,” Barnier told the European Parliament in Strasbourg.

However, the default position, if nothing else is agreed, remains that Britain will exit with no deal on March 29, a scenario business leaders warn would bring chaos to markets and supply chains and other critics say could cause shortages of food and medicines.

Supporters of Brexit argue that, while a no-deal divorce might bring some short-term instability, in the longer term it would allow the United Kingdom to thrive and forge trade deals across the world.

TARIFFS

Unveiling details of a tariff plan that would last for up to 12 months in the wake of a no-deal scenario, the government said 87 percent of total imports to the United Kingdom by value would be eligible for tariff-free access, up from 80 percent now.

Some protections for British producers would remain in place, including for carmakers – major employers in Britain – and beef, lamb, pork, poultry and dairy farmers. But it would expose other manufacturers to cheaper competition.

The government also said it would not introduce checks on goods moving from the Irish Republic to Northern Ireland, a major concern among Irish politicians who fear a hard border could see a return of violence which blighted the British province for more than 30 years until a 1998 peace accord.

May has said the government would not instruct lawmakers from her own Conservative party, bitterly divided over Brexit, on how to vote on Wednesday, as would normally be the case.

Sterling rallied more than half a percent, trading around $1.3150, on growing expectations that lawmakers would vote against no deal. But Brexit minister Stephen Barclay said it remained preferable to staying in the EU.

“If you pushed me to the end point where it’s a choice between no deal and no Brexit … I think no deal is going to be very disruptive for the economy and I think no deal also has serious questions for the union,” he told BBC radio.

“But I think no Brexit is catastrophic for our democracy. Between those very unpleasant choices, I think no Brexit is the bigger risk.”

The EU said there could be no more negotiations with London on the divorce terms, struck with May after two-and-a-half years of tortuous negotiations.

Britons voted by 52-48 percent in 2016 to leave the bloc, a decision that has split the main political parties and exposed deep rifts in British society.

Many fear Brexit will divide the West as it grapples with both the unconventional U.S. presidency of Donald Trump and growing assertiveness from Russia and China, leaving Britain economically weaker and with its security capabilities depleted.

Supporters say it allows Britain to control immigration and take advantage of global trade opportunities, while keeping close links to the EU.

European shares flat as Brexit impasse sinks in

LONDON (Reuters) – European shares opened broadly flat on Wednesday as uncertainty prevailed on Britain’s plan to leave the European Union and no corporate or economic news appeared strong enough to shake the risk-off mood spreading from Asia overnight.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index was down 0.05 percent by 0816 GMT, after closing 0.06 percent down on Tuesday as it became clear British Prime Minister Theresa May would lose a key vote in Parliament on her plans for an orderly Brexit.

London’s FTSE was also little changed, down 0.1 percent as the pound recouped some of its losses from the previous session.

Among individual stocks, shares in Germany’s Adidas (ADSGn.DE) posted the worst performance, losing 5.5 percent after announcing that supply chain issues would hit its sales growth in the first half of 2019, particularly in North America.

Another big loser was cash-rich Zara owner Inditex (ITX.MC) which was down 4.7 percent after it published annual earnings slightly below analysts’ expectations.

Wirecard (WDIG.DE) was the third-biggest faller, with a 4.3 percent hit after it suspended an accounting employee in Singapore amid allegations of fraud and creative accounting.

U.S. will not suspend Boeing 737 MAX planes; discussion on black box analysis

WASHINGTON/ADDIS ABABA (Reuters) – The U.S. aviation regulator said on Tuesday it would not ground Boeing Co 737 MAX planes after a crash in Ethiopia that killed 157 people, bucking a trend of countries around the world that have suspended the aircraft’s operations.

U.S. and Ethiopian aviation safety officials discussed on Tuesday whether the flight data and cockpit voice recorders from Ethiopian Airlines flight 302, which crashed on Sunday on a flight to Nairobi, would go to Washington or London for download and analysis.

U.S. officials said the devices suffered some damage but they were confident of some initial results within 24 hours of the data being downloaded.

U.S. carriers are eager to see the results as a growing number of countries and carriers are grounding the planes. There were 371 of the 737 MAX family jets in operation before this week’s groundings and about two thirds of the fleet is now grounded, based on Reuters calculations.

It is not clear if a final decision on where the recorders would go for analysis has been made. The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) declined to comment.

The FAA’s acting administrator, Dan Elwell, said its review had shown “no systemic performance issues and provides no basis to order grounding the aircraft”.

U.S. President Donald Trump spoke to Boeing Chief Executive Dennis Muilenburg and got assurances the aircraft was safe and did not need to be grounded, two people briefed on the call said.

The European Union’s aviation safety regulator suspended all flights in the bloc by the 737 MAX and a U.S. senator who chairs a panel overseeing aviation suggested the United States take similar action following Sunday’s crash, the second since October involving that type of plane.

But Elwell said no foreign civil aviation authorities had provided data that would warrant action. If any safety issues were identified during an urgent review of the Ethiopian Airlines crash, the FAA would “take immediate and appropriate action,” he said.

Britain, Germany and France joined a wave of suspensions of the aircraft following the crash, piling pressure on the United States to follow suit.

Boeing, the world’s biggest planemaker, which has seen billions of dollars wiped off its market value since the crash, said it understood the actions but retained “full confidence” in the 737 MAX and had safety as its priority.

The three U.S. airlines using the 737 MAX – Southwest Airlines Co, American Airlines Group Inc and United Airlines – stood by the aircraft, although many potential passengers took to social media to express concerns, asking if they could change flights or cancel.

The cause of Sunday’s crash, which followed another disaster with a 737 MAX five months ago in Indonesia that killed 189 people, remains unknown. On Monday, the FAA released details of a series of design changes and training requirements mandated from Boeing on the MAX fleet after the Indonesia crash.

There is no evidence the two crashes are linked. Plane experts say it is too early to speculate on the reason for the latest crash. Most are caused by a unique chain of human and technical factors.

EUROPEAN SUSPENSION
In an unusual decision, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) said it was suspending all flights in the bloc by the Boeing 737 MAX 8 and 9 jets.

It shied away, however, from the even rarer step of pulling the safety certification for the plane itself, focusing instead on the softer process of restricting its use by airlines. That leaves some leeway for the U.S. FAA to decide its own approach.

Flight ET 302 came down in a field soon after takeoff from Addis Ababa, creating a fireball in a crater. It may take weeks or months to identify all the victims, who include a prize-winning author, a soccer official and a team of humanitarian workers.

Boeing shares fell 6.1 percent on Tuesday, bringing losses to 11.15 percent since the crash, the steepest two-day loss for the stock since July 2009. The drop has lopped $26.65 billion off Boeing’s market value.

Of the top 10 countries by air passenger travel, all but the United States and Japan have halted flights of the 737 MAX. China, Indonesia, Singapore, New Zealand, Australia, Malaysia, India and others have temporarily suspended the plane.

Canada has no plans to ground 737 MAX aircraft but is ready to act to suspend flights if new information emerges indicating there is a problem, Transport Minister Marc Garneau said. Argentina and other South American nations are evaluating closing their airspace to 737 MAX planes, Argentina’s state-run news agency, Telam, reported.

U.S. Senator Ted Cruz, a Republican who chairs the Senate subcommittee on aviation and space, said it would be “prudent” for the United States “to temporarily ground 737 Max aircraft until the FAA confirms the safety of these aircraft and their passengers.”

Trump also fretted over modern aircraft design.

“Pilots are no longer needed, but rather computer scientists from MIT,” Trump tweeted, lamenting that product developers always sought to go an unnecessary step further when “old and simpler” was superior.

“I don’t know about you, but I don’t want Albert Einstein to be my pilot. I want great flying professionals that are allowed to easily and quickly take control of a plane!”

Trump did not refer to Boeing or recent accidents, but his comments echoed an automation debate that partially lies at the center of an investigation into October’s Lion Air crash in Indonesia. A focus there is the role of a software system designed to push the plane down, alongside airline training and repair standards.

Boeing says it plans to update the software in coming weeks.

GRAPHIC – Boeing shares hit after Ethiopia jet crash: tmsnrt.rs/2Ca96E7

VICTIMS FROM 30 NATIONS
Given problems of identification at the charred disaster site, Ethiopian Airlines said it would take at least five days to start handing remains to families.

The victims came from more than 30 nations, and included nearly two dozen U.N. staff.

“We are Muslim and have to bury our deceased immediately,” Noordin Mohamed, a 27-year-old Kenyan businessman whose brother and mother died, told Reuters.

“Losing a brother and mother in the same day and not having their bodies to bury is very painful,” he said in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, where the plane had been due.

The new variant of the 737, the world’s most-sold modern passenger aircraft, is viewed as the likely workhorse for global airlines for decades and 4,661 more are on order.

Britain in Brexit chaos – parliament crushes May’s EU deal again

LONDON (Reuters) – MPs crushed Prime Minister Theresa May’s European Union divorce deal on Tuesday, thrusting Britain deeper into crisis and forcing parliament to decide within days whether to back a no-deal Brexit or seek a last-minute delay.

MPs voted against May’s amended Brexit deal by 391 to 242 as her last-minute talks with EU chiefs on Monday to assuage her critics’ concerns ultimately proved fruitless.

The vote puts the world’s fifth largest economy in uncharted territory with no obvious way forward; exiting the EU without a deal, delaying the March 29 divorce date, a snap election or even another referendum are all now possible.

May might even try a third time to get parliamentary support in the hope that hardline eurosceptic MPs in her Conservative Party, the most vocal critics of her withdrawal treaty, might change their minds if it becomes more likely that Britain might stay in the EU after all.

While she lost, the margin of defeat was smaller than the record 230-vote loss her deal suffered in January.

MPs will now vote at 1900 GMT on Wednesday on whether Britain should quit the world’s biggest trading bloc without a deal, a scenario that business leaders warn would bring chaos to markets and supply chains, and other critics say could cause shortages of food and medicines.

May said the government would not instruct her own party’s MPs how to vote, as would normally be the case.

An opposition Labour Party spokesman said this meant she had “given up any pretence of leading the country”. May’s political spokesman said she had not discussed resigning.

The prime minister, hoarse after Monday’s late-night talks, told MPs: “Let me be clear. Voting against leaving without a deal and for an extension does not solve the problems we face.”

IMPASSE
She said parliament was now at an impasse: “Does it wish to revoke Article 50 (announcing intention to leave the EU)? Does it want to hold a second referendum? Or does it want to leave with a deal, but not this deal?”

Graham Brady, an influential Conservative lawmaker, said the two most likely scenarios were leaving the EU without a deal “or some kind of endless delay”.

Andrea Leadsom, who manages government business in parliament, insisted however that “it is still our intention, if at all possible, to leave the EU on March 29 with a good deal”.

The European Union said the risk of a damaging no-deal Brexit has “increased significantly” but there would be no more negotiations with London on the divorce terms.

Sterling, which had earlier in the day fallen by 2 percent to $1.3005, was trading at around $1.3086 shortly after the vote. [GBP/]

“One door has closed but other possibilities have opened up and markets are hopeful that Wednesday’s vote on a no-deal Brexit will suffer a big defeat,” said Timothy Graf, head of macro strategy at State Street Global Advisors in London.

Opposition to May’s deal among members of the Conservative Party derives from a belief that it does not offer the clean break from the European Union that many voted for.

Supporters of Brexit argue that, while a “no-deal” divorce might bring some short-term instability, in the longer term it would allow the United Kingdom to thrive and forge beneficial trade deals across the world.

However, parliament is expected firmly to reject a “no-deal” Brexit as well, so MPs would then vote again on Thursday – on whether government should request a delay to the leaving date to allow further talks.

Both May and the EU have already ruled out any other changes to the deal, struck after two-and-a-half years of tortuous negotiations.

“NO THIRD CHANCE”
“There will be no third chance,” European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said on Monday. “There will be no further interpretations of the interpretations, no further assurances of the reassurances if the ‘meaningful vote’ tomorrow fails.”

The government had been expected to offer parliament the chance to press for a short extension, but announced on Tuesday night that it would be for parliament to decide on the length of the delay that the government would request.

This raised the possibility that it might ask to push the exit date past late May, when Britain would have to participate in European Parliament elections – a prospect that both sides have been keen to avoid.

A spokesman for European Council President Donald Tusk, representing EU governments, said Britain would have to provide a “credible justification” for any request to delay Brexit.

Britons voted by 52-48 percent in 2016 to leave the EU but the decision has not only divided the main parties but also exposed deep rifts in British society, bringing concerns about immigration and globalisation to the fore.

Many fear that Brexit will divide the West as it grapples with both the unconventional U.S. presidency of Donald Trump and growing assertiveness from Russia and China, leaving Britain economically weaker and with its security capabilities depleted.

Supporters say it allows Britain to control immigration and take advantage of global opportunities, striking new trade deals with the United States and others while still keeping close links to the EU, which, even without Britain, would be a single market of 440 million people.

May fails to win over her party ahead of Brexit vote

LONDON (Reuters) – Britain’s exit from the European Union hung in the balance on Tuesday after Prime Minister Theresa May’s newly won assurances on her divorce deal failed to win over the main Brexit faction in her Conservative Party hours before a vote in parliament.

In a last-ditch bid to plot an orderly path out of the Brexit maze days before the United Kingdom is due to leave, May rushed to Strasbourg on Monday to agree legally binding assurances with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker.

But Attorney General Geoffrey Cox said in a written opinion the assurances left the legal risk of the United Kingdom being locked in the bloc’s orbit after Brexit, the most controversial issue for Brexit-supporting lawmakers.

“The legal risk remains unchanged,” Cox said. “However, the matter of law affecting withdrawal can only inform what is essentially a political decision that each of us must make.”

Sterling fell as much as 2 cents on Cox’s advice, which was seen as reducing the chance that May’s deal will be approved by parliament. It was trading at $1.3092 at 1323 GMT.

British lawmakers, who on Jan. 15 voted 432-202 against May’s deal, will vote at 1900 GMT. The main pro-Brexit faction in May’s party, the European Research Group, said it did not recommend voting for her deal.

The main sticking point is the so-called Irish border backstop, an insurance policy aimed at avoiding controls on the border between the British province of Northern Ireland and EU-member Ireland after Brexit.

Brexit-supporting lawmakers expressed suspicion at the haste of May’s last-minute assurances and suggested a delay to allow sufficient analysis of them and Cox’s advice.

“I am very, very suspicious and concerned about the time scale,” Conservative lawmaker Andrew Bridgen said. The ink isn’t even dry on the agreement… And we’ve got to vote on it today.”

Nigel Dodds, the parliamentary leader of the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which props up May’s minority government, said the assurances would still trap the United Kingdom in the EU’s orbit.

If lawmakers vote down May’s deal again, they will be given a vote on Wednesday on leaving without a deal, and if they turn down that option they will vote on Thursday on delaying Brexit.

MAY’S DEAL?
May had announced three documents – a joint instrument, a joint statement and a unilateral declaration – which she said were aimed at addressing the Irish backstop, the most contentious part of the divorce deal she agreed with the EU in November.

She said the assurances created an arbitration channel for any disputes on the backstop, “entrenches in legally-binding form” existing commitments that it will be temporary and binds the UK and EU to starting work on replacing the backstop with other arrangements by December 2020.

In essence, the assurances give the United Kingdom a possible path out of the backstop through arbitration and underscore the EU’s repeated pledges that it does not want to trap the United Kingdom in the backstop.

The European Research Group said the verdict of its ‘Star Chamber’ set up to analyse the assurances was that they did not deliver legally binding changes to the Brexit deal or the Irish backstop and did not provide an exit mechanism over which Britain had control.

“In the light of our own legal analysis and others we do not recommend accepting the government’s motion today,” William Cash, a senior pro-Brexit Conservative Party lawmaker said.

LAST CHANCE?
After two-and-a-half years of haggling since the 2016 Brexit referendum, Juncker cautioned this was Britain’s last chance. “It is this deal or Brexit might not happen at all,” he said.

The United Kingdom’s labyrinthine crisis over EU membership is approaching its finale with an array of possible outcomes, including a delay, a last-minute deal, a no-deal Brexit, a snap election or even another referendum.

Brexit will pitch the world’s fifth largest economy into the unknown and many fear it will divide the West as it grapples with both the unconventional U.S. presidency of Donald Trump and growing assertiveness from Russia and China.

Supporters of Brexit say while the divorce might bring some short-term instability, in the longer term it will allow the United Kingdom to thrive and also enable deeper EU integration without such a powerful reluctant member.

May, an initial opponent of Brexit who won the top job in the chaos following the 2016 referendum, has repeatedly warned that if lawmakers reject her deal then Brexit could be thwarted.

Brexit hangs in balance as parliament to vote on May’s tweaked deal

LONDON (Reuters) – The future of Britain’s exit from the European Union hung in the balance on Tuesday as members of parliament prepared to vote on a divorce deal after Prime Minister Theresa May won last-minute assurances from the European Union.

Scrambling to plot an orderly path out of the Brexit maze just days before the United Kingdom is due to leave, May rushed to Strasbourg on Monday to agree “legally binding” assurances with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker.

British lawmakers, who on Jan. 15 voted 432-202 against her deal, were studying the assurances with lawyers. Geoffrey Cox, the government’s top lawyer, is due to give his opinion on Tuesday at 1230 GMT ahead of the vote due around 1900 GMT.

“We have secured legal changes,” May said in a late night news conference in Strasbourg beside Juncker, 17 days before the United Kingdom is due to leave the EU on March 29.

May announced three documents – a joint instrument, a joint statement and a unilateral declaration – which she said were aimed at addressing the Irish backstop, the most contentious part of the divorce deal she agreed with the EU in November.

She said the assurances created an arbitration channel for any disputes on the backstop, “entrenches in legally-binding form” existing commitments that it will be temporary and binds the UK and EU to starting work on replacing the backstop with other arrangements by December 2020.

In essence, the assurances give the United Kingdom a possible path out of the backstop through arbitration and underscore the EU’s repeated pledges that it does not want to trap the United Kingdom in the backstop.

After two-and-a-half years of haggling since the 2016 Brexit referendum, Juncker cautioned this was the last chance for Britain. “It is this deal or Brexit might not happen at all,” he said.

Sterling rose on news of the deal but then gave up its gains by mid-morning and was trading $1.3163 at 1040 GMT.

If MPs vote down May’s deal, she has promised a vote on Wednesday on whether to leave without a deal and, if they reject that, then a vote on whether to ask the EU for a limited delay to Brexit.

The United Kingdom’s labyrinthine crisis over EU membership is approaching its finale with an array of possible outcomes, including a delay, a last-minute deal, a no-deal Brexit, a snap election or even another referendum.

Brexit will pitch the world’s fifth largest economy into the unknown and many fear it will divide the West as it grapples with both the unconventional U.S. presidency of Donald Trump and growing assertiveness from Russia and China.

BREXIT VOTE
Supporters of Brexit say while the divorce might bring some short-term instability, in the longer term it will allow the United Kingdom to thrive and also enable deeper EU integration without such a powerful reluctant member.

Brexit-supporting MPs in May’s party had accused her of botching the negotiations with Brussels.

Many Brexiteers fear the backstop, aimed at avoiding controls on the border between the British province of Northern Ireland and EU-member Ireland, could trap the United Kingdom in the EU’s orbit indefinitely.

One eurosceptic MP told Reuters he had seen nothing to change his opposition to the deal so far but that MPs were awaiting a legal analysis. Others questioned why the assurances were not included in the Withdrawal Agreement.

Former Brexit Secretary David Davis welcomed the requirement to make alternative arrangements for the backstop, the date and the international arbitration, but said Cox’s opinion would be key.

“All those things together, make this just about, just about acceptable to me but it depends very, very heavily on a robust, clear response from Cox,” Davis told Talk Radio. “If Geoffrey Cox is at all equivocal about it then I think it will fall again.”

The immediate reaction was cautious from the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) which props up May’s minority government.

DUP leader Arlene Foster told the BBC she was sympathetic to demands for a day’s delay to give time to study the assurances.

Jacob Rees-Mogg, leader of a faction in May’s Conservative Party demanding a clean break from the EU, also said he was waiting for legal advice. “This has been desperately rushed,” he told the BBC. “I think it would be better to have the vote tomorrow when people had more mature consideration.”

The motion put forward by the government said the joint instrument “reduces the risk” that the United Kingdom would be trapped in the backstop.

If the backstop comes into force and talks on the future relationship break down, May said the unilateral declaration would make clear there was nothing to stop London from moving to leave the backstop.a

U.S. to mandate design changes on Boeing 737 MAX 8 after crashes

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The United States will mandate that Boeing Co implement design changes by April that have been in the works for months for the 737 MAX 8 fleet after a fatal crash in October but said the plane was airworthy and did not need to be grounded after a second crash on Sunday.

An Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX 8 bound for Nairobi crashed minutes after take-off on Sunday, killing all 157 aboard and raising questions about the safety of the new variant of the industry workhorse, one of which also crashed in Indonesia in October, killing 189 people.

Boeing confirmed the Federal Aviation Administration’s announcement late Monday that it will deploy a software upgrade across the 737 MAX 8 fleet “in the coming weeks” as pressure mounted. Two U.S. senators called the fleet’s immediate grounding and a rising number of airlines said they would voluntarily ground their fleets.

The company confirmed it had for several months “been developing a flight control software enhancement for the 737 MAX, designed to make an already safe aircraft even safer.”

Boeing did not reference Sunday’s Ethiopian Airlines crash in connection to the software upgrade. The statement did express the company’s condolences to the relatives of the 157 people who died, however.

The FAA said the changes will “provide reduced reliance on procedures associated with required pilot memory items.”

The FAA also said Boeing will “update training requirements and flight crew manuals to go with the design change” to an automated protection system called the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System or MCAS. The changes also include MCAS activation and angle of attack signal enhancements.

The FAA said in the notice made public that external reports are drawing similarities between the crashes in Ethiopia and Indonesia. “However, this investigation has just begun and to date we have not been provided data to draw any conclusions or take any actions,” according to the Continued Airworthiness Notification to the International Community for Boeing 737 MAX 8 operators.

U.S. Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao told reporters regulators would not hesitate to act if they find a safety issue.

“If the FAA identifies an issue that affects safety, the department will take immediate and appropriate action,” Chao told reporters. “I want people to be assured that we take these incidents, these accidents very seriously.”

Boeing’s top executive told employees on Monday he was confident in the safety of the U.S. manufacturer’s top-selling 737 MAX aircraft. The company added that it was “still early” in the Ethiopian Airlines investigation.

Reuters and other media outlets have reported that Boeing has for months planned design changes after the Lion Air crash in Indonesia but the FAA notice was the first public confirmation.

Canada’s transport minister also said he will not hesitate to act once the cause of the crash is known.

Two Democratic Senators Dianne Feinstein and Richard Blumenthal called for the immediate grounding of the aircraft, as did Paul Hudson, the president of FlyersRights.org and a member of the FAA Aviation Rulemaking Advisory Committee.

Blumenthal said the planes “should be grounded until the FAA can assure American travelers that these planes are safe.”

Sara Nelson, the president of Association of Flight Attendants union, wrote the FAA on Monday asking it to conduct a comprehensive review and “take steps immediately to address concerns and ensure the safety of the 737 MAX fleet.”

The National Transportation Safety Board and the FAA are both at the crash site in Ethiopia, Chao said.

Boeing’s shares fell as much as 10 percent on the prospect that two such crashes in such a short time could reveal flaws in its new plane. Boeing, whose shares closed down 5.3 percent at $400.01 in the heaviest trading trade since July 2013.

The 737 line, which has flown for more than 50 years, is the world’s best-selling modern passenger aircraft and viewed as one of the industry’s most reliable.

China ordered its airlines to ground the jet, a move followed by Indonesia and Ethiopia. Other airlines, from North America to the Middle East, kept flying the 737 MAX 8 on Monday after Boeing said it was safe.

Boeing’s 737 MAX is the newest version of a jet that has been a fixture of passenger travel for decades and the cash cow of the world’s largest aircraft maker, competing against Airbus SE’s A320neo family of single-aisle jetliners. The 737 family is considered one of the industry’s most reliable aircraft.

The MAX has a bigger and more efficient engine compared with earlier 737 models.

Boeing rolled out the fuel-efficient MAX 8 in 2017 as an update to the already redesigned 50-year-old 737, and had delivered 350 MAX jets out of the total order tally of 5,011 aircraft by the end of January.