Calendar of traded news

The core retail sales excluding auto motor fuel are projected to have risen 0.3% over the month in May after rising 1.3% m/m in April. After a rather disappointing start to 2018, the UK retail sales rebounded strongly in April thanks to the early timing of Easter this year, but the forward-looking indicators for retail sales like the British Consortium of Retailers (BRC) report indicate further softening in May.

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Apr)

On Friday, Statistics Canada will be releasing its monthly jobs report. According to the economists polled, the Canadian economy is forecast to see another weak month as the economy is expected to shed 6k jobs during May. This follows April’s decline of 1.1k and would mark a second consecutive monthly decline. Full time employment is also forecast to drop 21k on the month following an increase of 28k the month before. This could potentially signal some lost momentum in the job growth.

The Canadian unemployment rate is also forecast to increase to 5.9%, up from 5.8% previously. The unemployment rate was steady for three consecutive months ending April 2018.

There are tepid signs that growth is gaining momentum in the second quarter. Both the manufacturing and construction PMIs released in the past few days beat expectations in May and a CBI survey of UK firms published on Sunday pointed to rising output in the three months to May. The encouraging data has helped the pound to regain some positive footing against the dollar. The British currency had tumbled to a 6-month low of $1.3203 last week but has since rebounded to just below the $1.34 level.

Another data beat on Tuesday could lift sterling above $1.34 towards potential resistance barriers at the $1.3460 and $1.3510 levels. A disappointing PMI report, however, could lead to a reversal of the pound’s recent gains with the $1.33 support level coming back into scope.

Nonfarm Payrolls (May)

Unemployment Rate (May)

Natural Gas Storage

Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)