Analysis of the American trading session

During the American session on Thursday, December 14, 2017, the US dollar fell against the major market currencies. The main pressure on the US dollar was provided by the results of the December meeting of the Fed, at which the regulator maintained its forecast of further raising of the interest rate until 2020, thus disappointing market participants. Some support for the US currency was provided by positive statistics on the labor market and retail sales in the US. See “The US dollar received support, data on retail sales in the US.“

The euro fell significantly against the US dollar during the US trading based on comments by ECB head Mario Draghi, after the Central Bank decided to keep the discount rate at 0.00%. At the beginning of Draghi’s speech, the euro received support, due to the comments on improving forecasts for inflation and economic growth. Then Draghi said that if the economic outlook becomes less favorable, the ECB is ready to increase the asset purchase program.

The Canadian dollar significantly strengthened its position against the US dollar, helped by the recovery in oil prices, as well as comments by the head of the Bank of Canada, Poloz. In his comments, Poloz spoke positively about improvements in the labor market and salary growth. Despite the fact that Poloz made a promise to be cautious about tightening monetary policy, while carefully studying all the risks and uncertainties, the chances of raising the discount rate in March 2018 exceeded 60%. Also, see “Opinion on the pair USD/CAD. Waiting for speech of Stephen Poloz.“

Alexander Sivtsov