U.K. data
- Business investment (q/q) (Q4), fact -1.4%, forecast -1.3%.
- GDP (q/q) (Q4), fact 0.2%, forecast 0.3%.
- GDP (y/y) (Q4), fact 1.3%, forecast 1.4%.
- GDP (m/m), fact -0.4%, forecast 0.0%.
- Industrial Production (m/m) (Dec), fact -0.5%, forecast 0.1%.
- Manufacturing production (m/m) (December), fact -0.7%, forecast 0.2%.
- Change in monthly GDP 3m/3m, fact 0.4%, previous value 0.3%.
- Trade balance (December), fact -12.10B, forecast -12.00B.
- Trade balance excluding EU countries (December), fact -3.64B, forecast -3.70B.
The UK data was very negative. The main negative notes of the report were: the slowdown of the UK economy and the decline in manufacturing production. Thus, the UK GDP showed the strongest slowdown in a year. Although this slowdown was expected, it turned out to be more significant.
Fig. 1. U.K. GDP (m/m) chart
The British pound, despite the pressure, remains very restrained, thanks to the growth of optimism in the market. Weak statistics on the UK and Brexit risks are likely to continue to put pressure on the pound, in fact, strengthening the downward movement, which persists in the GBP/USD pair.
Fig. 2. GBP/USD chart. Current price – 1.2900
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Hanzenko Anton
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