US retail sales data
- Core Retail Sales (m/m) (May), fact 0.5%, forecast 0.5%, previous value 0.5%.
- Retail sales (m/m) (May), fact 0.5%, forecast 0.7%, previous value 0.3%.
US retail sales data for May were restrained negative, even showing a slowdown in retail sales (m/m). But at the same time, the revised values for April were much better than previously published data. Thus, these figures improved by 0.4%. This indicates the preservation of the positive dynamics of the US economy and may significantly reduce the likelihood of lower rates in the United States in the future.
Fig. 1. US core index of retail sales
Against the background of less negative expectations for the US economy, the US dollar index accelerated growth against a basket of competitors. In anticipation of the US Federal Reserve meeting next week, this indicates a decrease in the likelihood of lower rates.
The US dollar index on a wave of optimism has updated a high at the level of 97.30, moving from weekly lows and fully recovered after a decline. But he also turned out to be significantly overbought and under the pressure of Trump’s criticism. Further strengthening of the American dollar will be limited by its overbought and resistance levels: 97.40 and 97.50. Support levels are located at the levels: 97.20 and 97.00.
Fig. 2. The US dollar index chart. The current price is 97.30 (10-year US government bonds yield is the blue line)
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Hanzenko Anton
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