Expectations from the March Fed meeting
Today, later, at 20:00 Kiev time, the results of the US Fed meeting will be published, from which they expect keeping monetary policy unchanged. Later, the Fed’s press conference will take place at half an hour, from which we can expect an increase in US dollar volatility, as investors expect not only the rates to remain unchanged, but also the Fed’s very mild rhetoric, which will strengthen the market’s expectations of lower rates in the future, which turn, will be regarded as a bearish signal for the American dollar.
The probability that the Fed will not raise rates this year is 75%. And starting in June, the likelihood that the Fed rates will be reduced exceeds 10% and increases by the end of the year. If market expectations will be confirmed and the tone of the Fed will be very soft, we can expect a new wave of sales from the US dollar.
The US dollar index at the trading on Wednesday is limited by the resistance of 96.50, keeping the downward trend. In the context of the Fed soft rhetoric the test of support levels: 96.20 and 96.00 is expected.
Fig. The US dollar index chart. The current price is 96.40 (10-year government bonds yield is the blue line)
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Hanzenko Anton
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