An employment data in the USA
- Average hourly earnings in the USA (m / m), actual 0.2%, forecast 0.3%.
- Change in the number of employed in nonfarm sector of the United States, fact 202K, forecast 190K.
- The US trade balance, fact -43.10B, forecast -43.70V.
- The unemployment rate in the US, fact 4.0%, forecast 3.8%.
An employment report in the US was very mixed. Thus, the expectation of a decline in jobs wasn’t true, but the unemployment rate increased, and earnings growth slowed. The main negative factor of the report was an unexpected increase in unemployment by 0.2%, which eventually led the market to return to negative sentiments for the US currency.
Fig. 1. Unemployment chart in the US
But it is also worth noting that the US trade deficit narrowed for the third consecutive month. This can be a deterrent to the decline in the dollar. With the growth of unemployment in the US, the probability of increasing rates this year is reduced, and this is certainly a bearish signal for the dollar.
The index of the US dollar against the basket of major competitors has updated the monthly low at 94.00. And now it is limited to oversold, but retains the potential to decline on negative sentiments for the American dollar.
Fig. 2. The US dollar index chart. The current price is 94.00 (10-year government bonds yield is a blue line)
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