Raw materials intrigues of the Australian dollar. Review of AUD/USD for a week.

Good afternoon, the aboriginals of the financial market and exchange trade. With you, the pilgrim and explorer of the new lands of the ForEx market Captain Andrew “Golden Eye” Green.

After a lively trade throughout the past week, we are waiting for new interesting events on this one. The main driver of trade for the Australian was its constant partner for “dirty” dances on the ForEx site, a raw material tool, the dream of any investor, and many people far from the financial market – Gold.

Probably, one of the most ancient instruments of exchange, gold, and now firmly holds the position of one of the most secured and solid assets. Australia is among the top 10 countries with the largest producers of this valuable material resource. But, to a large extent, Australia’s economy directly depends on its commodity export flows, and, in fact, is fully oriented to external flows of replenishment of the budget and the economy. And gold acts as something like a composite index of the commodity market.

Let’s take a look at the graph of yellow metal (Figure 1). The situation is not simple, on the one hand, we see that Gold entered the middle of the rising channel and is in a mode of uncertainty, but if we look through the prism of linear analysis of extrema (minima/maxima), then a clear turn was made from the highs of 2014, 2016, 2017. , which, in general, gives a good potential for further movement to decline.

But, given the sentiment that now persists in the US stock market, and along with it the Safe Haven security market, namely: the increased volatility of the stock market and the growth of interest on government bonds, one should expect a further increase in demand for gold.

From the point of view of fundamental analysis, the current situation is not simple, and certainly does not provide a clear understanding of the possible formation of any trend globally.

Therefore, now, I recommend that more attention be given to technical analysis.

To start, we will study long-term prospects for a pair, at least superficially. Let’s take a look at the timeframe “week” (Figure 2).

The pair is in a steady growing trend, and currently forms a downward correction, focusing on support levels in the RANGES: 0.75-0.76, which in general is not so far from the current market price.

On the daily timeframe (Figure 3), we can consider this situation in more detail.

For our mid-term analysis and trading there are good support points for purchases with averaging of 0.7600.

We can start averaging already from the levels of 0.7650 with a further move of 50 points. Cut off level and stop loss at a price of 0.7450. As for sales, the nearest range is far – 0,8100. I DO NOT RECOMMEND to go into sales below 0.8040. Start averaging 0.8050, in increments of 50 points, and clipping at 0.8170.

And now, short-term analysis and trade recommendations for intra-day trading. Let’s study the timeframe H1 in Figure 4.

There’s a chic signal to the entrance from the psychological level to 0.7800, besides a strong candle to buy. Well, sales – focus on the psychological level of 0.8000.

Examples of transactions:

• BUY (current) 0.7810, SL 0.7760, TP 0.7880
• SELL limit 0.7990, SL 0.8040, TP 0.7910

For those who have questions about work and trade on the instruments of linear and candle analysis, I suggest that you take an individual training course, the topics and tools of the trade that you will learn in the process of training, you can read more in detail from the link on the partner company Ester Holdings .

If there is a question on this recommendation, or there is simply a desire to discuss the situations that were encountered in the market – write to support@esterholdings.com with a note “for Andrew Green”.

One of the factors of success in trade is the support of people who surround you;
or the formation of an environment that supports you.
We are the smiths of our happiness and we are creating the world where we live!

Andrew Green