Expectations from the USD/CAD pair at the end of the year!

Like most other major currency pairs that move to the New Year’s Eve correction, the USD/CAD pair also began to slow down the upward trend, which indicates the formation of a correction and a shift in priorities.

Background

Starting from the large timeframes of W1, it is worth noting that the upward movement, which was traced throughout 2018, is nothing else, as a correction against the decline, which was traced in 2016 and 2017. Under the terms of the Fibonacci correction, the growth in 2018 reached a significant resistance at 1.3380 (Fibo level. 50.0 from the high of 2016 to the low of 2017), which can be a strong resistance.

Other significant levels are 1.3680 (fib. 61.8) and 1.3060 (fib. 38.2). This trading range forms expectations at the end of 2018 and the beginning of 2019.

On D1 timeframe, the USD/CAD pair maintains upward dynamics, both a general annual uptrend and a three-month uptrend, which has been traced since October. It is worth noting the level of 1.3380, which is also the key here, from which a rebound was traced at the end of June 2018 in the formation of a corrective downtrend.

On the H4 timeframe, this pair has formed a side triangle, which is located at the above-mentioned level 1.3380, thereby indicating the uncertainty that is associated both with the preservation of the upward dynamics and its reversal.

Expectations

At the same time, the zone of uncertainty is located in the range from 1.3450 to 1.3260, where the level of 1.3380 is a strong level, behind which it is necessary to place the feet in the ascending or descending dynamics of the pair.

Medium-term investments should be considered only when the pair USD/CAD leaves the channel 1.3450-1.3260. The side triangle serves as a driver for movement or for short-term investments only.

While maintaining the uptrend, the goals are located at the levels of 1.3550-1.3600 and 1.3680, which are more likely in the conditions of preservation of the existing political situation. When forming a reversal and consolidation below 1.3260, a reversal is expected against two-month growth with a test of the marks: 1.3150 and 1.3060. Which so far looks less likely.

Fundamental factors remain the main risk factors in these expectations.

Anton Hanzenko