The UK data

• GDP (m/m), fact 0.0%, forecast 0.1%.
• GDP (y/y) (Q3), fact 1.5%, forecast 1.5%.
• GDP (q/q) (Q3), fact 0.6%, forecast 0.6%.
• Industrial Production (MoM) (September), fact 0.0%, the forecast -0.1%.
• Manufacturing production  (m/m) (September), fact 0.2%, forecast 0.1%.
• Trade balance (September), fact -9.73B, forecast -11.40B.
• Trade balance excluding EU countries (September), fact -2.34B, forecast -3.90B.

The published report on the UK was discreetly positive. GDP data fully coincided with forecasts that actually had no impact on the pound. At the same time, the UK GDP index on an annualized basis confirmed growth, which slowed down the downtrend.

Fig. 1. Graph of UK GDP (y/y)

 

The data on production in the manufacturing industry and the UK trade balance became more positive factors for the report. It showed an increase, despite the deterioration of previous values, .

As a result, the British pound received restrained support against major competitors, which will be enough to slow the decline in the pound. In the case of the EUR/GBP pair, this report is enough to resume the decline to support levels: 0.8680 and 0.86660 and the lower border of the trade channel.

Fig. 2. EUR/GBP chart. The current price is 0.8720.

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Hanzenko Anton

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