市场消息

SINGAPORE, May 23 (Reuters) – The dollar rose slightly to the basket of major currencies on Wednesday, while investors were waiting for the release of the minutes of the last meeting of the Fed, which could shed light on the pace of tightening monetary policy in the US.

By 8.41 Moscow time, the dollar index added 0.05 percent to 93.660. On Monday, the index reached a peak of five months at 94,058.

Since mid-April, the dollar has increased by more than 5 percent, mainly due to good US economic data and expectations of at least two more Fed rate hikes by the end of the year.

The Japanese yen rose on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump cooled his optimism about the progress in the trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing, saying that he was not happy with their progress.

The dollar slid by 0.4 percent to the yen to 110.48, moving away from the peak of four months at 111.395 yen, reached on Monday.

Investors are waiting for the release of the minutes of the last meeting of the Fed, following which the regulator left rates unchanged. The protocol will be published on Wednesday at 21.00 Moscow time.

“We hope to get a little more clarity on the Fed’s inflation forecast,” said Hyun Kun Ho of UOB in Singapore.

The euro fell by 0.1 percent to $ 1.1764, again approaching Monday’s six-month low of $ 1.1717.

Turkish lira also declined after rating agencies on Tuesday expressed concerns about President Tayyip Erdogan’s plans to tighten control over monetary policy.

Japanese shares led most Asian stocks lower and the yen appreciated as investors eyed risks from Turkey to North Korea. Treasuries ticked higher, while oil headed lower.

With optimism over U.S.-China trade talks fading from earlier in the week, concerns range from iffy prospects for President Donald Trump’s historic summit with North Korea’s leader to Turkey’s financial-market stability as the lira hits successive record lows. Japan’s currency rose the most in almost three weeks at one point as traders sought a haven, and the Topix index of Japanese stocks fell as much as 1 percent. Equity benchmarks from Hong Kong to Sydney declined. FTSE 100 futures fell in early London trading.

“If you look at history, you find that geopolitics does rattle markets,” Vasu Menon, OCBC Bank vice president, told Bloomberg Television. “The markets are clearly quite nervous because we’ve had a good run and this is an excuse for the markets to take a breather.”

U.S. stocks closed down Tuesday after Trump cast doubt on a meeting with Kim Jong Un during his Oval Office meeting with South Korean President Moon Jae-in. Shares had rallied earlier following China’s announcement that it will cut the import duty on passenger cars, signaling a further easing of trade tensions with the U.S.

Beyond geopolitics, central banks are also in focus this week. The Federal Reserve will release minutes of its latest policy meeting on Wednesday, while the ECB follows suit on Thursday. A raft of U.S. debt sales adds to the busy agenda.

Elsewhere, the New Zealand dollar retreated after the central bank published a discussion paper on unconventional monetary policy.

LONDON (Reuters) – Bank of England Governor Mark Carney denied on Tuesday that the central bank had confused investors and households by not raising interest rates earlier this month.

In February, the BoE said rates were likely to go up sooner and somewhat faster than investors had been expecting, prompting financial markets to price in a rate hike at the central bank’s May meeting as a near-certainty at one point.

Carney, speaking to lawmakers on Tuesday, said a slowdown in the economy in the first three months of 2018 – when heavy snow and icy conditions hit Britain – would probably prove temporary. This echoed his comments from earlier this month when the BoE decided to keep rates at 0.5 percent.

“Our view is not that circumstances changed in the first quarter. It’s more likely to have been temporary and idiosyncratic factors that slowed the economy,” he said.

While investors scaled back their bets on a rate rise, Carney said surveys showed households and businesses largely expected a rate hike this year and more increases “at a very gentle pace relative to history” after that.

Carney has in the past given several signals about when rates are likely to rise, only to be wrong-footed by twists and turns in the economy.

Carney said his main message – that rates are likely to rise only slowly – has proven correct.

Earlier on Tuesday, one of the nine members of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee, Gertjan Vlieghe, said he expected slightly more interest rate increases over the next three years than the market assumption of just under three 25 basis-point hikes during that period used by the BoE earlier this month.

“Provided the headwinds from Brexit uncertainty do not intensify in the near term, and ultimately fade over the coming years, I think policy rates are likely to rise, in my central view, by 25bp to 50bp per year over the forecast period,” Vlieghe said in written answers to questions from lawmakers.

“That is slightly higher than the conditioning assumption for interest rates in the May 2018 Inflation Report. That is a forecast, not a promise, and will depend on how the economy evolves,” he said.

Sterling – which on Monday hit its lowest level against the U.S. dollar in nearly five months – rose against the euro and the dollar after Vlieghe’s comments before easing slightly.

Most Asian stocks dipped in a holiday-hit trading session Tuesday, with the dollar stalling near a five-month high and U.S. Treasuries little changed. Crude oil steadied around its highest level since 2014.

While the S&P 500 Index climbed overnight thanks to easing trade tensions, that optimism appeared to have played out by the time Asian trading began Tuesday. Shares in Japan and Australia fell alongside those in China, even as companies selling baby products saw gains after news the country plans to abandon its policy on birth limits. European futures pointed to a mixed open, while the euro drifted and Italian 10-year bond yields ticked lower.

“Markets are going through a bumpy ride,” Bank of Singapore Investment Strategist James Cheo said on Bloomberg Television. “This trade truce is still in the early days. It’s really a ceasefire, it’s not a peace treaty as yet. The implementation details are still unclear. There is still some caution among Asian investors.”

Outside of trade, plenty of other topics stand ready to capture investors’ attention. Along with the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting and those of the European Central Bank, there is a slew of debt sales from the U.S. On the geopolitical front, U.S. President Donald Trump meets South Korea President Moon Jae-in in Washington to coordinate their approach to North Korea, while Brexit negotiations are ongoing.

Elsewhere, pressure on emerging-market currencies eased as the dollar stalled, with the Malaysian ringgit and the Indonesian rupiah heading up. Hong Kong and South Korean markets were shut for Buddha’s Birthday.

SINGAPORE, May 22 (Reuters) – The dollar is traded below the five-month high on Tuesday morning, taking a breather after the rally, supported by rising yields of the US government bonds and easing tensions in US-China trade relations.

The dollar index, which tracks the dynamics of the US currency against a basket of six major competitors, was traded at 93.593 by 08:40, having retreated from the maximum of five months of 94,058 reached on Monday.

The retracement of the yield of the US Treasury’s ten-year bonds from seven-year highs set last week probably caused traders to record profits from the strengthening of the dollar, analysts said.

During the last month, the dollar was supported by the good economic statistics of the US, as well as by the growth in the yield of the US government bonds.

The prospect of resolving a trade dispute between the US and China also increased the attractiveness of the US currency.

The yield of ten-year treasury bonds has moved away from Friday’s maximum in almost seven years by 3,128 percent, having fallen to the level of 3,0523 percent.

In relation to the yen, the dollar weakened by 0.1 percent to 110.90 yen after reaching a four-month peak of 111.395 yen on Monday.

The euro fell by 0.1 percent to $ 1.1779, but is higher than the low of $ 1.1717, the lowest since mid-November.

The pressure on the single currency is provided by the political uncertainty in Italy.

Investors are waiting for the release of the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which will be made public on Wednesday and may shed light on the pace of policy tightening by the regulator.

BMO Capital Markets is unfazed by the risk of a U.K. election.

The North American bank is bullish on sterling, seeing it gaining 7 percent to $1.44 by year-end, even after reports that Prime Minister Theresa May’s party is preparing for a second national vote in just over a year. The potential for more political drama at the same time as Brexit negotiations saw the pound slide to its lowest level this year on Monday.

“It would leave the pound open to range trading and flatness but I don’t think it’s a big negative factor,” said BMO’s head of European currency strategy Stephen Gallo. “If we did go to elections the Conservatives would do quite well so I’m not as worried as some of my peers are.”

Not all pound bulls are so optimistic. ING Groep NV currency strategist Viraj Patel said a snap election would be “unambiguously pound negative”, while Jordan Rochester at Nomura International Plc pointed to the Conservatives only having a small poll lead compared to before the 2017 vote.

The Tories have likely learned from some of their mistakes in last year’s election, which saw May lose her majority in parliament, while a lot of people would vote for the status quo to get Brexit over with, Gallo said. Adding to the positive sterling thesis, he expects U.K. economic data to recover and the Bank of England to hike interest rates in August this year.

TEHRAN, May 21 (Reuters) – Iranian oil minister Bijan Zanganeh said on Saturday that US President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the nuclear deal would not affect Iran’s oil exports if the EU could save the treaty.

“Each new decision in the OPEC should be taken unanimously … I believe that if the European Union helps us … the level of oil supplies from Iran will not change,” Zanganeh told journalists after the meeting with European Commissioner for Energy Miguel Arias Cañete.

Following the decision of Trump, the US Treasury will once again introduce a number of sanctions, which will include restrictive measures against Iran’s oil sector and operations with the country’s central bank.

The EU wants to preserve the nuclear deal concluded in 2015, which releases Iran from economic sanctions in exchange for curtailing its nuclear program. Europe believes that this agreement is an important element of international security.

During the previous round of sanctions, the export of oil from Iran decreased by about one million barrels per day, but the country regained its status as the main fuel supplier after the sanctions regime was abolished in 2016.

However, large European companies are afraid of US sanctions and are slow to conduct business with Tehran, which needs to attract more than $ 100 billion of investments to increase oil production.

“I have no doubt that the US extraterritorial sanctions against Iran will have an impact on (foreign) investment,” Zanganeh told reporters. “This will not stop us, but will slow down the growth rate.”

STIMULATION OF TRADE

Due to the introduction of new US sanctions, some customers of OPEC, the third-largest oil producer, said they would seek to exclude Iranian oil from the US sanctions list.

“Our main customers are in Asia … but we also expect to maintain the level of supplies to Europe and Africa,” Zanganeh said.

Arias Canete, who was in Tehran for a two-day visit, presented to the Iranian officials a list of possible measures prepared by the EU and aimed at mitigating the impact of US sanctions. Thus, Europe is trying to strengthen the position of moderate political forces in the administration of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, who want to preserve the open nature of trade with the West.

“We want to solve all the problems that hamper the normal oil trade,” Arias Canete said.

Zanganeh said that Iran in particular was interested in the EU proposal, according to which European governments can pay for Iranian oil in euros and make payments through the Central Bank of Tehran, bypassing the US financial system.

Among other EU initiatives are measures that will protect European business in Iran from the US sanctions, and permission to work there for the European Investment Bank.

Investments of EU countries – mainly Germany, France and Italy – to Iranian projects since 2016 have exceeded 20 billion euros.

However, some foreign companies have already started talking about their intentions to leave Iran.

French energy company Total (PA: TOTF) reported last week that it will withdraw from the multibillion-dollar gas project with Iran if it can not get its expulsion from the US sanctions list. Iran previously cited this contract as an example of how to prove the success of a nuclear agreement with world powers.

“If Total does not receive an exception from the US sanctions list, it will leave Iran and its place will be taken by some Chinese company,” Zanganeh said.

The fact that their activities in Iran will suffer from US sanctions, last week also said French Engie, Polish PGNiG and German DZ Bank.

Zanganeh said other countries, such as Russia and China, are interested in filling the vacuum that may arise if European investors leave the country.

“Two Chinese companies – SINOPEC and CNPC – are long-standing partners of Iran, they are interested in joint development of the largest fields,” Zanganeh said.

Zarubezhneft works from Russian companies in Iran, LUKoil was interested in projects in this country.

Lukoil’s representative (MCX: LKOH) said earlier that the company strictly abides by the current legislation, and also takes into account the relevant sanctions restrictions when making investment decisions.

Investing.com – Judging by the dynamics of futures, on Monday the US stock market will open with the growth. The US and China agreed to suspend the introduction of duties before the signing of a trade agreement between the two countries.

At 13:44 by Moscow time, the Dow blue chip index futures soared 231 points or 0.93% to 24952.0, while the S & P 500 futures rose by 16 points or 0.60% to 2,729.25. Futures on high-tech Nasdaq 100 traded higher by 49 points or by 0.71% at 6923.00.

On Sunday, the US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin said that at the moment the trade war between China and the United States was halted. In the past few months, both countries have been drawn into a trade conflict to introduce reciprocal duties on imported goods. Despite the suspension of the introduction of duties, China has not yet agreed to reduce the US trade deficit by $ 200 billion in mutual trade despite the demand of Donald Trump.

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares grew by 1.72%, after Tesla CEO Ilon Mask announced a two-fold increase in the price of the new version of Model 3. The Facebook shares NASDAQ: FB) rose by 0.76%, and shares of semiconductor maker Advanced Micro Devices Inc (NASDAQ: AMD) – 2.00%. Shares of General Electric (NYSE: GE) increased by 2.20%.

On the other hand, shares of British American Tobacco (LON: BATS) fell by 0.53%, Aegion Corp (NASDAQ: AEGN) shares gained 2.26%, and shares of Vedanta Ltd (NYSE: VEDL) – 1, 68%.

In the second half of Monday, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Rafael Bostic, the head of the FBI Philadelphia, Patrick Harker and the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Neil Kashkari will hold speeches.

European stock markets demonstrate mixed dynamics. The French CAC 40 rose by 37 points or 0.67%, the German DAX climbed by 36 points or 0.28%, while the London FTSE 100 rose by 61 points or 0.79%. The Euro Stoxx 50 index decreased by 19 points or by 0.55%, while the Spanish IBEX 35 grew by three points or by 0.07%.

Gold futures fell by 0.57% to $ 1,244.0, while futures for oil WTI rose by 0.34% to $ 71.61 per barrel. The index of the US dollar, which shows the purchasing power of the dollar to the trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.21% to 93.78.

SINGAPORE/TOKYO, May 21 (Reuters) – The dollar rose to the yen on Monday after US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin said Washington and Beijing put the trade war “on a pause.” His comments revived hopes for easing tensions in the trade relations of the two largest economies of the world and supported the appetite for risk.

The dollar by 8.53 (Moscow) rose by 0.5 percent to 111.35 yen, updating a maximum of four months.

Warming in US-China trade relations is likely to support risky assets such as equities, and will favorably affect the dollar’s exchange rate against the yen, said Stephen Innes from Oanda in Singapore.

Mnuchin and chief economic adviser to US President Donald Trump Larry Kudlow said that the agreement, which the US and Chinese delegations concluded on Saturday, provides the basis for addressing the imbalance of trade in the future.

The dollar index to the basket of major currencies increased by 0.2 percent to 93,870. The euro fell by 0.2 percent to $ 1.1749 after a decline to $ 1.1743, a five-month low.

The pound lost 0.3 percent to $ 1.3439, reaching a low since late December.

Investors are waiting for the release of the minutes of the last meeting of the Fed, which will be made public on Wednesday and may shed light on the pace of policy tightening by the regulator.