市场消息

TOKYO, May 28 (Reuters) – The euro retreated on Monday from a six-and-a-half month low against the dollar, taking a breather after the Italian president tried to dispel investors’ concerns about political instability in the country, although currency growth limited the prospect of new elections .

The euro strengthened by 0.6 percent to $ 1.1725 after falling to $ 1.1646 on Friday, the lowest level since mid-November, as a result of which it lost more than 1 percent per week.

In relation to the Japanese yen, the single currency rose by 0.7 percent to 128.33 yen after a decline to Friday’s 11-month low of 127.165.

The euro was apparently supported by the fact that Italian President Sergio Mattarella refused to approve Paolo Savona, the Minister of Economy, as a tough critic of the single European currency. Two populist parties, trying to form a coalition government, insisted on his appointment.

The prospect of holding new elections in the country due to the refusal of the parties “League” and “Five-Star Movement” from the plans for forming an alliance, however, limited the growth of the euro.

The dollar index, which tracks the dynamics of the US currency against a basket of six major competitors, was trading at 93.871 at 08:45, 0.3 percent lower than the previous close. On Friday, it rose to 94,248, the maximum mark since November 14.

The US currency appreciated by 0.08 percent to 109.47 yen after rising to 109.830 amid a slight decrease in risk aversion after US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that the US delegation had arrived in North Korea to prepare for the planned meeting of Trump with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

The Australian dollar strengthened by 0.38 percent to $ 0.7578 after a 0.4 percent drop on Friday.

The New Zealand dollar, which lost 0.2 percent on Friday, rose by 0.6 percent to $ 0.6958.

The Canadian dollar widened Friday’s losses, touching the C $ 1.2992 mark for the dollar, the low since May 8.

SINGAPORE, May 28 (Reuters) – Oil prices are declining on Monday morning because of the readiness of Saudi Arabia and Russia to weaken their commitments to limit raw materials production within the OPEC + pact.

By 8.45 Moscow time, futures for the North Sea blend Brent dropped by 1.65 percent to $ 75.18 per barrel.

Futures contracts for US light crude WTI traded at $ 66.23 per barrel, which is 2.43 percent lower than the previous close.

The price of the September contract for oil on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) was held at 459.0 yuan per barrel in the morning.

In late 2016, Russia and several other oil-producing countries agreed with OPEC to reduce oil production by about 1.8 million barrels per day.

Sources said on Friday that Reuters was discussing the possibility of raising the total quota by 1 million barrels per day.

Among other factors of pressure on quotations analysts name steady growth of oil production in the USA.

According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the production of raw materials in the US over the past two years has increased by more than 27 percent to 10.73 million barrels per day.

U.S. stock futures rose in Asian trading as President Donald Trump appeared to confirm the summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was back on, three days after it was abruptly called off.

S&P 500 Index futures climbed 0.5 percent at 7 a.m. in London. Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.6 percent, while those on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4 percent. U.S. markets will be closed Monday for Memorial Day.

The risk-on in U.S. stock futures comes as the State Department confirmed reports that a U.S. delegation is meeting with North Korean officials to prepare for the summit, which had been set for June 12 in Singapore. Monday’s advance pared losses incurred after Trump canceled the meeting last Thursday.

“We’re seeing a positive start to the week just because of that North Korea flip,” said Nick Twidale, chief operating officer of Rakuten Securities’ Australian unit. “Into Europe today, there will be a lot of focus on the oil market and Italy.”

U.S. stocks fell 0.2 percent on Friday after oil tanked the most in 11 months on concerns over more supply from OPEC. Italy sank deeper into political uncertainty after President Sergio Mattarella rejected euro-skeptic Paolo Savona as finance minister.

Investing.com – Goldman Sachs’ optimism about commodities is stronger than ever.

The Wall Street company expects that the commodities index will grow by 8% over the next 12 months, and not by 5%, as predicted earlier.

In a note to customers, the company’s experts said that raw materials, led by crude oil, will show the best year in the last decade.

Goldman Sachs notes concerns about the slowdown in economic growth, and interest rates in the US are currently inappropriate, and under these conditions “demand remains stable.”

The company claims that the fundamentals of oil are “more bullish than ever”, triggered by President Trump’s decision to restore economic sanctions against Iran.

Investing.com – According to the report of the Office for National Statistical  of Great Britain (ONS) published on Friday, the value of the country’s economic growth for the first quarter remained unchanged.

According to the ONS report, in the first quarter of 2018, the UK’s GDP increased on an annualized basis by 1.2%, which coincides with a pre-determined value.

Compared with the fourth quarter of last year, GDP growth was 0.1%. This coincided with the experts’ forecasts that this value will remain unchanged.

However, the growth of business investment in the first quarter was revised downward to 2.0% on an annualized basis in comparison with the previously defined growth of 2.6%.

Analysts assumed that this figure would be revised up to a 2.4% increase.

Compared to the previous quarter, the growth in investments in the business was revised downwards to 0.2% compared to a pre-determined growth of 0.3%.

Analysts had expected that the growth in investment in the business would be adjusted to 0.2%.

Investing.com – The data released on Friday showed that the IFO business climate index rose.

The IFO Research Institute said that Germany’s business climate index rose to 102.2 in May after a value of 102.1 in April.

Economists predicted that this index will rise to 102.7.

The assessment of the current situation in Germany in May rose to 106.0 in line with forecasts.

The indicator for April was revised upwards to 105.8 against the initial value of 105.7.

Germany’s business expectations index, which determines the business climate in Germany and measures the expectations of German businessmen for the next six months, fell to 98.5 this month after a value of 98.7 in April.

Analysts predicted that this figure will increase to 99.5.

The business climate index is determined on the basis of a survey of approximately 7,000 German companies in the manufacturing and construction sectors, as well as in the wholesale and retail sales sectors.

Bloomberg.com — The yen dropped and U.S. stock futures rose after North Korea offered a measured response to President Donald Trump’s decision to cancel a summit with that country’s leader. Asian shares were mixed, and crude oil held losses.

Shares in Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea saw modest declines and were heading for weekly losses as trade tensions simmer and investors eye risks from emerging markets. Crude oil held losses after Russia’s energy minister reiterated that OPEC and its partners will discuss phasing out supply curbs when they meet next month. Turkey’s lira resumed its slump as traders weighed whether an emergency rate hike was enough to stem losses.

Geopolitics was back on the agenda with President Donald Trump’s letter to the North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, in which he blamed the “tremendous anger and open hostility” in recent statements from Pyongyang for his decision. North Korea’s government said in a statement that it was surprised at the cancellation and remained willing to meet with the U.S. at any time.

Elsewhere, the euro remained weaker, alongside the pound, as questions swirl around the Italian populist government’s economic policies and Brexit negotiations loom large over British assets.

Bloomberg.com — Stephen Innes has been buying gold since the news broke that U.S. President Donald Trump had canceled his planned summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

But that aside, he doesn’t seem too bothered.

“It’s a bump in the road,” Innes, the head of trading at Oanda Corp. in Singapore, said in a phone interview. “The road to prosperity offered to North Korea by the U.S., South Korea and Japan is just too tempting for North Korea to pass up. The situation will get ironed out, just not as quickly as the market may have wanted.”

North Korea said it was surprised by Trump’s decision, and that the country remains willing to meet at any time. In a statement Friday by state-run KCNA that cited Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye Gwan, North Korea vowed to continue to pursue peace and signaled it would give Washington more time to reconsider talks.

Market reaction was muted in Asian trading Friday, with Japan’s benchmark Topix index and a regional equity gauge trading slightly lower. U.S. stocks dropped after Trump’s announcement, before paring losses to close down 0.2 percent on Thursday.

“The low-key risk-off move was about par for the course,” Innes said. A military conflict is “highly unlikely,” he said.

Here are some other investor comments.

Brinksmanship
“It’s a shame that it has been canceled as both administrations sit on the verge of something great,” said James Soutter, head of global equities at K2 Asset Management Ltd. in Melbourne. “That said, the process isn’t over, and one has to try to figure out how much brinksmanship is at play.”

Soutter said he expected selling of South Korean stocks, and that he’d look to buy them if the market overreacted. The benchmark Kospi index slid 0.3 percent as of 10:34 a.m. local time.

As for what he’s watching for next, Soutter said it’s “who will flinch first.”

“Both are playing the man, not the ball, and in such as testing each others’ limits,” Soutter said. “Trump has just shown that he won’t fold. It’s now back in Kim’s corner.”

It’s “part of the posturing and chess game,” said Kay Van-Petersen, a Singapore-based global macro strategist with Saxo Capital Markets Pte. “The summit will eventually happen — just a question of time and date. No U.S. president is going to pass on the legacy trade of a lifetime.”

China Link
“North Korea’s remarks got tougher as the ties between China and North Korea strengthened,” said Hideyuki Ishiguro, a senior strategist at Daiwa Securities Co. in Tokyo. “So, some people in the market were skeptical about the feasibility of the U.S.-North Korea summit. Still, Trump left the door open to a summit, so this isn’t a complete break-off.”

Not Over
“I don’t think it’s all over yet,” said Heo Pil Seok, chief executive officer of Midas International Asset Management Ltd. in Seoul. “Trump seems to be testing the water by declaring the cancellation. The level of tensions on the Korean peninsula depends on the response from North Korea.”

Chua Hak Bin, a senior economist at Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte in Singapore, agreed.

“The cancellation is a major setback,” he said. “But both the U.S. and North Korea are still talking and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Singapore summit still takes place at a later date.”

Like Innes, Chua isn’t too fussed about the news.

“Investors are becoming accustomed to the Trump volatility and decision flip-flops,” he said. “Markets should not overreact to this news.”

“The market is waking up to the fact that the historic summit between the U.S. and North Korea will not play out like a Hollywood blockbuster, but a long-running Korean drama series,” said Eli Lee, head of investment strategy at Bank of Singapore Ltd. “For now, both sides have not closed the door on an eventual meeting — I think that is key.”

No Big Deal
“This is no big deal,” said Hao Hong, chief strategist at Bocom International Holdings. “This is all within expectation. Come on, who had expected that they were really going to meet?”

Investing.com – The dollar rose against other major currencies in the Friday morning, and the dollar index tested level 94. The news was affected by President Trump’s cancellation of the planned summit with the leader of North Korea.

The dollar was not affected by Trump’s decision to cancel the summit on June 12, which could increase the degree of geopolitical tensions in the region.

The dollar index, which reflects the strength of the dollar against the basket of six major currencies, added 0.11% to the level of 93.83. Last Wednesday, the dollar strengthened to the high of this year at 94.10.

The White House published Trump’s letter to the leader of the DPRK, in which the US president refused to attend the summit. In recent statements by Pyongyang, Trump saw “anger and open hostility” and called the outcome unsuccessful for both North Korea and the world.

The pair USD/JPY added 0.27% to 109.54. However, the yen, which, as a rule, grows in times of market instability, has not strengthened on the news. Core inflation in Tokyo also was slightly below expectations, reaching 0.5% against the forecast 0.6%.

The pair AUD/USD dropped by 0.11% to 0.7566. Geopolitical problems put pressure on the Australian business, tied to market sentiment.

The People’s Bank of China set the benchmark rate for the yuan against the dollar at 6.3387 against 6.3816 a day earlier. The pair USD/CNY added 0.10% and traded at the level of 6.3387.