市场消息

Bloomberg.com — Asian stocks were mixed Friday, after the Trump administration’s tariffs on imports from key allies sent U.S. and European stocks into a tailspin and the dollar climbed against most major peers. The yen declined and Japanese bonds fell after the Bank of Japan cut purchases of some debt at its regular operations.

Shares in Japan rose, while Korean equities outperformed on better than expected export data. Australian stocks lagged alongside Chinese and Hong Kong shares. U.S. futures pointed higher. Earlier, the S&P 500 fell for the fourth time in five days, as the president’s escalation of trade tensions with Canada, Mexico and the European Union hammered American industrial and financial shares. The 10-year Treasury yield pared Thursday’s losses.

Investor focus returned to trade tensions, overshadowing reports that Italy is close to forming a government that is more EU-friendly than had been feared. The Trump administration’s unilateral action was met with retaliatory actions that could imperil economic growth. Traders are also bracing for Friday’s jobs report, with payrolls expected to rise and the unemployment rate seen holding at the lowest since 2000.

“The hard thing about protectionism, the hard thing about tariffs and quotas, is that you can almost think of it as it’s a slow-moving disease, but it’s deadly,” Kristina Hooper, Invesco’s chief global market strategist, said in an interview at Bloomberg’s New York headquarters. “When I look at protectionism, I don’t believe the market truly can price it in at this point because there’s still so many potential iterations.”

Elsewhere, oil fell as rising U.S. output overshadowed a surprise decline in crude stockpiles, with traders also focused on whether Saudi Arabia and Russia will boost production.

Investing.com – On Thursday, the euro rose in price after a sharp rise in the rate on Wednesday amid optimism that in Italy a way out of the political impasse is possible without holding new elections.

By 10:26 Moscow time, the pair EUR/USD rose by 0.2% to 1.1686, retreating from the minimum for ten months of 1,1509, recorded on Tuesday.

The rate of the European currency has grown because of the new attempts of Italy’s populist parties “The Five-Star Movement” and the “League of the North” to resurrect the government coalition. These attempts have reduced fears of holding repeated elections in Italy, which, in fact, can become a referendum on the country’s future stay in the euro area.

The yield of bonds of Italy fell after a sharp increase on Tuesday, but investors remain concerned about political risks in the euro area. At the same time, the Prime Minister of Spain on Friday will vote on a vote of no confidence in his government.

Also on Friday, the expiration date for EU countries from trade duties on the import of steel and aluminum in the US expires. There are also concerns about the trade conflict between the US and China, as well as the situation around North Korea.

Today, investors expect the publication of data on inflation in the euro area. Yesterday’s report on inflation in Germany, which exceeded the forecasts of experts, complicated the problems that the ECB officials have to deal with when discussing the curtailment of the financial incentive program.

The euro appreciated slightly against the yen. At the time of writing, the pair USD/JPY traded at position 126.93 after rising by 1.04% on Wednesday.

The dollar fell to the yen. The pair USD/JPY fell by 0.27% to 108.62, again approaching a minimum of five months 108.10, which was fixed on Tuesday.

The British pound has risen in price: the pair GBP/USD has increased by 0.2% to 1.3313 after a decrease on Tuesday to a minimum in six months of 1.3203 against the background of risks in the euro area.

The US dollar index, which shows the purchasing power of the dollar to the trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, fell by 0.17% to 93.89, retreating even further from the high of 94.98 in seven months, which was reached on Tuesday.

Investing.com – Consumer prices in France in May 2018, calculated by French standards, rose by 2% in annual terms after an increase of 1.6% in April, preliminary data from the National Statistical Office Insee.

Relative to the previous month, prices increased by 0.4%.

Experts interviewed by the agency Bloomberg, on average, predicted inflation at 1.9% in annual terms and 0.3% in the monthly.

The cost of food in France this month rose by 1.7% in annual terms, industrial goods fell by 0.2%. Energy grew in price by 10%. Services have become more expensive by 1.4%. Fresh products have risen in price by 4.9%. Prices of tobacco products jumped by 16.1%.

Consumer prices, harmonized with the standards of the European Union, increased this month by 2.3% in annual terms after an increase of 1.8% a month earlier. The May inflation rate became the highest since August 2012 and for the first time in these six years exceeded the level targeted by the European Central Bank (just below 2% per annum). For a month, inflation was 0.4%.

Analysts on average predicted inflation at 2.1% in annual terms and 0.3% in monthly terms.

Investing.com – In May, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in China’s processing industry resumed its recovery against market expectations and peaked in September.

The value of the indicator increased from 51.4 points in April to 51.9 points in May, according to the State Statistical Office of the PRC.

Analysts on average expected the index to remain at the April level.

The index has already remained above the 50-point mark for 22 months – the boundary between the decline and growth of business activity in the sector. This is the longest period of recovery since the end of 2014.

Official China PMI in the service sector in May rose from 54.8 to 54.9 points. The consensus forecast assumed the preservation of the April level.

Consolidated PMI rose from 54.1 to 54.6 points, the highest level since January.

Bloomberg.com — Japan’s factory output rose less than forecast in April, adding to concerns about the strength of the economy following a contraction in growth during the first quarter. A sharp drop in production of electronic components and devices was cited as a factor.

Highlights

• Industrial production rose 0.3 percent in April (forecast +1.4 percent) from March, when it gained 1.4 percent.
• Year-on-year output grew 2.5 percent (forecast +3.6 percent), compared with a 2.4 percent rise in March.
• Output is projected to rise 0.3 percent in May from April, and fall by 0.8 percent in June.

Key Takeaways

Overseas demand helped drive a two-year expansion in Japan’s economy before a contraction in the first quarter of this year. Overall global demand is expected to remain solid, but the smartphone-driven tech cycle responsible for so much of Asia’s recent growth is cooling, and the effects were seen in Japan’s April factory output. Economists expect Japan’s expansion to resume this quarter, but risks include heightened trade frictions and U.S. protectionism, including threatened auto tariffs.

Economist Views

“This suggests Japan’s soft patch may be longer or deeper than expected,” said Hiroaki Muto, chief economist at the Tokai Tokyo Research Center. “Production for electronic devices was one key driver of the weakness, partly reflecting weak global demand for smartphones.”

“This is bad timing because concerns in financial markets are already heightened because of Italy,” Muto said. “More evidence of weakness in the economy could make investors step back and think that we may have more things to worry about.”

“I think today’s numbers were a bit of a mixed bag,” said Marcel Thieliant, senior Japan economist at Capital Economics Asia in Singapore. “But obviously the economy’s entering the second quarter with strong momentum with three consecutive increases. So even if we get a bit of weakness in May and June, almost certainly the economy will grow this quarter.”

The U.S. auto tariffs are obviously the biggest trade-related threat, Thieliant said. “If they get imposed, probably firms will shift some of their production overseas, to their U.S. manufacturing centers.”

— With assistance by Connor Cislo, and Toru Fujioka

Investing.com – ADP on Wednesday reported that in May in the private sector of the US the number of employed increased by 178 thousand people. This value turned out to be lower than the experts’ forecasts.

Economists predicted that the ADP report will show growth of 190 thousand jobs.

Data on the number of employed in April in the private sector of the US were revised downward to 163 thousand against a pre-determined value of 204 thousand.

“The warmed-up labor market in the US has cooled down a bit, although employment continues to grow,” said Vice President of the ADP Research Institute Ahu Yildirmaz. “Sectors of health care and the provision of professional services continue to be the main drivers of job growth in the labor market.”

According to the chief economist of Moody’s Analytics Mark Zandi: “The growth in the number of jobs continues to be high, although it is slowing down. Companies are not able to fill a record number of open vacancies. Accordingly, the growth of salaries is accelerating, especially for young people who are employed for the first time, and also for those who have changed their jobs. The number one problem for the US labor market was the search for suitable employees, “says Mark Zandi.

The ADP report is published before the official report of the US Department of Labor on employment outside the agricultural sector, which will be released on Friday and will contain data on both employment in the private sector and in public institutions.

Investing.com – Consumer prices in Spain calculated according to the standards of the European Union in May rose by 2.1% in annual terms after a rise of 1.1% in the previous month, according to preliminary data from the Spanish Statistical Office (INe).

The result surpassed both the analysts’ average expectations (1.7%) and the boldest forecast (2%), the Financial Times notes.

For May, consumer prices went up by 0.9% after 0.8% in April.

The main reason for the price increase in May, INe called the increase in oil prices, which caused a sharp rise in price of gasoline and diesel fuel, as well as electricity.

The final data on inflation in Spain for May will be published by the statute on June 13.

In addition, INe reported that retail sales in Spain in April, adjusted for seasonal adjustments, increased by 0.5% compared to the same month last year, after rising by 1.6% in March.

TOKYO, May 30 (Reuters) – The euro was held near the multi-month lows against major counterparts on Wednesday, as the intensification of the political crisis in Italy provoked the possibility of early elections, which, as some market players fear, could lead to the formation of a Eurosceptic government in Rome.

According to sources close to a number of major Italian political parties, it was likely that Italian President Sergio Mattarella could dissolve the parliament in the next few days and send the population to the polls on July 29.

The euro, which dropped to a minimum of 10 months on Tuesday at $ 1.1510, edged up by 0.13 percent to $ 1.1555 on Wednesday, 9.09, but it showed slow moving dynamics in Asia. Since the beginning of the month, the single European currency has lost about 4.5 percent.

The yield of 10-year Italian government bonds jumped to 3.19 percent. And the yield of two-year bonds – up to 2.71 percent from 0.84 percent the day before.

The euro lost 1.0 percent to the Swiss franc on Tuesday, showing the maximum one-day decline since September. On Wednesday, the euro partially won back losses, rising by 0.3 percent to 1.1473 francs.

By the yen, the euro rose by 0.16 percent to 125.71 yen after falling to 11-month low at 124.62 yen.

The dollar gained 0.06 percent against the yen, rising to 108.80 yen.

The dollar index, which tracks the dynamics of the US currency to the basket of six major currencies, slipped by 0.07 percent, dropping to 94.776.

Investing.com – Retail sales in Germany in April increased by 2.3% compared to the previous month, according to the data of the Federal Statistical Agency of the country (Destatis). Prior to this, the indicator was down on the results of four months in a row.

Compared with April last year, sales increased by 1.2%.

Analysts on average forecast an increase of 0.7% for the month and 1.3% for the year, according to Trading Economics.

In March, according to revised data, the monthly decline was 0.4%, not 0.6%, as previously reported. The annual growth estimate was revised to 1.7% from 1.3%.

Destatis also reported that import prices in Germany increased by 0.6% in April both in relation to the previous month and in annual terms.

The European Commission forecasts Germany’s GDP growth of 2.3% this year and 2.1% in 2019.