市场消息

Bloomberg.com — The U.S. and China continued to haggle over the shape of a deal to fend off an impending trade war, with China offering to boost purchases of American goods and the U.S. finalizing a deal to allow China’s ZTE Corp. to resume purchases from American suppliers.

Ahead of a mid-June deadline for imposing tariffs on Chinese imports, China has offered to boost purchases of U.S. goods by about $25 billion this year, according to two people familiar with the matter, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the negotiations aren’t public. Crude oil, coal and farm products are among the goods that the Chinese are willing to buy more of, according to the people briefed on the talks.

The proposals are the latest in the negotiations between the world’s two largest economies, which have been trading threats for months. U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross was in Beijing earlier this month for the third round of high-level negotiations, which focused on China agreeing to buying more U.S. energy and farming goods, according to the White House…

Bloomberg.com — U.S. job openings unexpectedly rose to a fresh record in April, with vacancies increasingly exceeding the number of unemployed workers amid a robust labor market, Labor Department data showed Tuesday.

The gains reinforce the view that the economy is creating jobs at a pace that can absorb any remaining labor-market slack. The report follows data released last week that showed payrolls increased more than forecast in May, the unemployment rate fell to 3.8 percent, matching April 2000 as the lowest since 1969, and wages also picked up.

March’s upward revision made it the first time in data back to 2000 that vacancies exceeded the number of unemployed, a gap of 48,000. That difference grew to 352,000 in April and is poised to keep widening, as the number of unemployed dropped further in May, to 6.07 million.

Although it lags the Labor Department’s other jobs data by a month, the JOLTS report adds context to monthly payrolls figures by measuring dynamics such as resignations, help-wanted ads and the pace of hiring.

The rise in openings in April was broad-based, led by professional and business services, the JOLTS report showed. Other gainers included manufacturing, trade and transportation, and leisure and hospitality.

Investing.com – The yield of the 10-year bonds of Italy rose for the first time in five sessions – by 12 basis points (bp) – to 2.65% per annum. The yield premium of Italian securities relative to similar by the term of Germany bonds reached 226 bp.

The euro against the dollar as of 16:47 Moscow time dropped to $ 1.1668 compared with $ 1.1699 at the close of the previous session. The European currency has fallen in price to Japanese to 128.06 yen against 128.46 yen the day before.

The dollar fell to the Japanese currency slightly – to 109.79 yen compared with 109.82 yen in the previous trading.

Bloomberg.com — The U.K. services sector, the biggest part of the economy, grew more than forecast in May as the economy continued to plot a modest recovery from the snow disruption of the first quarter.

IHS Markit said Tuesday its Purchasing Managers Index rose for a second month to 54 from 52.8. That beat the reading of 53 predicted in a Bloomberg survey. The pound jumped after the report and was up 0.5 percent to $1.3374 as of 9:38 a.m. London time.

Taken together with surveys on manufacturing and construction, the report suggest the economy is on course for growth of about 0.3 to 0.4 percent this quarter, Markit said. Expansion slowed to just 0.1 percent in the first three months of the year.

SEOUL (Reuters) – Oil prices subdued rise in the morning on Tuesday, but a further rise of the market is limited by the production record in the United States and the possible build-up of raw materials offers OPEC +.

By 9.00, futures for the North Sea mixture grew by 0.15 percent to $ 75.40 per barrel.

Futures contracts for US light crude WTI traded near $ 64.99 per barrel, which is 0.37 percent higher than the previous close.

The price of the September oil contract on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) held at 463.9 yuan per barrel in the morning.

Participants in the global OPEC pact will meet in Vienna in the second half of June to discuss further policies. Earlier, sources told Reuters that Russia and Saudi Arabia discuss the possibility of increasing oil production by 1 million barrels a day, to avoid the shortage of raw materials.

According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), US oil production in March reached a record 10.47 million barrels per day.

The investors’ attention is attracted by data on weekly stocks of oil and petroleum products in the US from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the EIA.

Bloomberg.com — Asian stocks struggled for traction Tuesday after pacing a global rally as investors set aside protectionist fears in favor of optimism over the U.S. economy. Ten-year Treasuries edged higher after a fourth consecutive sessions of declines.

Stocks ended little changed in Japan, fell in Australia and fluctuated in Hong Kong and South Korea. Earlier, the S&P 500 Index closed at its strongest since mid-March and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose to a record high. U.S. and European equity futures were little changed. The dollar steadied against major peers.

Investors are renewing their focus on the U.S., after jobs figures Friday underscored the resilience of the world’s largest economy. Coupled with easing fears of a euro-zone crisis, it pushed to the background concerns about trade that flared up again over the weekend. Still, trade tensions are likely to return to the fore again this week. Group of Seven leaders meet in Quebec Friday, with the European Union and Canada threatening retaliatory measures unless President Donald Trump reverses course on new steel and aluminum levies.

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar slipped after the nation’s current account deficit widened more than expected and the central bank said inflation will likely remain low for some time. Oil pared losses to trade around $65 a barrel after an OPEC committee stressed the need to ensure supplies can meet growing demand, adding to speculation the group will phase out its production cuts.

Bloomberg.com — Australia left its key interest rate unchanged at a record low Tuesday after the key unemployment metric edged higher.

Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe kept the cash rate at 1.5 percent, where it has stood since 2016, as expected by all economists. The jobless rate hit 5.6 percent in April, moving further away from the central bank’s estimated level of full employment. The global picture has also become more clouded amid an emerging-market rout, populism in Europe and U.S. trade tariffs.

The RBA has fashioned itself as an anchor of stability in Australia’s economy, making clear it’s unlikely to tighten policy until unemployment falls toward 5 percent and inflation is nearer the midpoint of the bank’s 2-3 percent target range. Traders are pricing in little chance of a rate hike before mid-2019 amid continued weak growth in wages and consumer prices.

Bloomberg.com — Asian stocks gained after U.S. jobs data bolstered optimism in the world’s largest economy, outweighing global trade tensions. The dollar and the yen weakened as demand for haven assets retreated.

While the MSCI Asia Pacific Index of stocks was on track to gain the most in more than two months, the shadow of a trade war may keep exuberance in check. China warned it will withdraw from commitments it made on trade if U.S. President Donald Trump carries out a separate threat to impose tariffs on the Asian country, and the U.S. is headed for a showdown with America’s allies at a Group of Seven summit this week.

Tokyo and Hong Kong stocks outperformed, and European stock futures advanced. The dollar pulled back after completing a seventh week of gains. The 10-year Treasury yields traded above 2.90 percent as investors turned their attention to the pace of Federal Reserve rate hikes after a strong American jobs report Friday.

The U.S. jobs data was a welcome relief for traders after a tumultuous week dominated by fears about the prospect of another euro-area crisis. Much of that seemed to have dissipated as the week ended — in Italy, nationalist parties finally took power ending months of deadlock, while in Spain, the Socialist led-opposition ousted Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy with a no-confidence vote Friday.

With concerns about the euro area somewhat assuaged and emerging markets settling down after the recent sell-off, attention this week turns back to trade. The Group of Seven meets in Quebec later this week, with the European Union and Canada threatening retaliatory measures unless Trump reverses course on new steel and aluminum levies.

“There is a lot of to-ing and fro-ing which so far hasn’t led to the imposition of some of these threatened tariffs, but I think the tit-for-tat and the possibility that this will start to gain unwanted momentum is very important to the markets,” John Wraith, head of U.K. macro rates strategy at UBS Group AG, told Bloomberg Television. “That said, it’s somewhat of a slow burner, it takes time to have an impact and issues like the situation on the Korean Peninsula and recently the Italian political situation, they have more immediate impact.”

Elsewhere, West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed after declining as rising U.S. output overshadowed a surprise drop in stockpiles, with traders also focused on whether Saudi Arabia and Russia will boost production. The won led an advance in Asian emerging-market currencies as risk-on sentiment prevailed with Europe political risks receding.

Bloomberg.com — Trade tensions between the U.S. and China are unlikely to be resolved by the existing architecture that governs world trade, according to Stephen Olson, Hong Kong-based Research Fellow at the Hinrich Foundation Ltd.

The world’s two biggest economies need to agree on a new framework that will allow both of their economic systems to co-exist, something the World Trade Organization doesn’t have the capacity to resolve, said Olson, who was a former U.S. government trade negotiator.

The following are edited excerpts of an interview with Bloomberg Television’s Rishaad Salamat:

Are we in a trade war?

“As of today, we are not in a trade war, but I think the danger is certainly escalating.
The application of the steel and aluminum tariffs to the European Union and Canada and Mexico is certainly a very significant escalation and we are certain that those trading partners will retaliate. At that point, the question becomes will the U.S. administration retaliate against that retaliation.”

What kind of scenarios are you expecting?

“I would have to say that the current administration is arguably the most unpredictable administration in modern American history, so anyone who makes prognostications does so at their own risk. I would, however, point to a couple of scenarios. There is some speculation that at the end of the day this might actually be a negotiating tactic and in fact Secretary Ross made the comment to the effect that the reason the tariffs had to go into effect on Canada and Mexico was because there was insufficient progress in renegotiating NAFTA. So it remains to be seen, but that may actually be the end game here.”

Should trade balances be viewed as a score card?

“This is one of the most concerning aspects of Secretary Ross’s weekend visit to Beijing. The primary objective seemed to be to somehow negotiate down the size of the U.S. trade deficit with China. Doing so, unless the U.S. addresses its imbalance between savings and investment, will in all probability simply transfer that trade deficit from China to other countries and it would also get us dangerously close to the territory of managed trade. Trade negotiations should be about removing restrictions to cross-border access, it should not be about arbitrarily divvying up slices of market share.”

Can trade be viewed in a binary way?

“As the size and sophistication of China’s economy grows, its state directed model of capitalism is increasingly coming into conflict with the traditional Western model of free markets, free trade and a hands-off government approach to the market place, and what we are seeing now is that the rules of global trade are not really capable to help these two competing economic systems to get along.”

What kind of model is needed?

“Given the experience we had with the Doha round, I am not terribly optimistic that this is something that can be addressed within the context of the WTO. It might be more realistic for the U.S. and China to try to work out some kind of a modus operandi, some kind of framework that would let these two countries to continue their trade and investment partnership, because after all this has been a trade and investment relationship that has been very mutually beneficial. Now is the time really for the U.S. and China to figure out how can these two systems co-exist with each other, because it is clear both are here to stay.”

Would it be better to let sleeping dogs lie?

“Because of the size of China’s economy and its growing technological sophistication, I think these friction points are just going to increase in frequency, so I don’t think we can let sleeping dogs lie, this is an issue that has to be addressed.”