市场消息

Bloomberg.com — The odds of OPEC reaching an oil-production deal increased as Iran edged away from a threat to veto any agreement that would raise output and Saudi Arabia put forward a plan that would add about 600,000 barrels a day to the global market.

At the end of a day of diplomatic back-and-forth in Vienna on Wednesday, delegates were increasingly positive that a deal would be reached at Friday’s meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

After sitting down with several counterparts, Iranian Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said he was optimistic about the outcome of the OPEC meeting, a marked contrast to comments on Tuesday when he said a deal was unlikely. He also spoke with Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak by phone.

“I’m confident that at the end of the day reason will prevail,” Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih told reporters in Vienna after a succession of meetings. He echoed earlier comments from OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo. […]

Bloomberg.com  — European stocks rose with U.S. futures, tracking gains in Asia, as the panic surrounding a potential global trade war showed signs of easing. Treasury yields and the dollar stabilized, and oil edged higher.

All sectors advanced as the Stoxx Europe 600 Index opened in the green following three days of losses. Earlier in Asia, equity markets struggled for direction before climbing. Shares in Japan and China both reversed declines, though the Shanghai Composite Index remained below the 3,000 level it fell through on Tuesday. Oil recovered to trade above $65 a barrel even as Iran signaled OPEC may fail to agree on output limits when it meets at the end of the week. The euro and pound fell.

The threat from U.S. President Donald Trump for tariffs on an additional $200 billion of Chinese goods was the latest in a series of shots in a spat between the world’s two biggest economies that could yet escalate into a full-blown trade war. Assets in emerging markets have been hit especially hard as the tensions coincide with projections for steeper U.S. interest-rate hikes.

Developing-nation stocks rose on Wednesday, paring some of their plunge a day earlier. Turkey’s lira fell again ahead of an election this weekend.

Elsewhere, the onshore yuan rose after the People’s Bank of China set its daily reference rate at a stronger level than all analyst and trader projections. Indonesia’s stocks were the worst performers in Asia as traders returned after a holiday. […]

Bloomberg.com – Oil traded below $66 a barrel as escalating trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies added jitters to a market that’s already nervous about the upcoming OPEC meeting on output policy.

Futures in New York rose 0.5 percent. Prices fell 1.2 percent on Tuesday as China vowed to retaliate against President Donald Trump’s threat to slap tariffs on another $200 billion in Chinese imports, raising fears the growing spat could slow down economic growth and cut oil demand. Meanwhile, Iran put itself on a collision course with Saudi Arabia at this week’s OPEC meeting, rejecting a potential compromise that would see a small production increase.

Oil has been stuck mostly below $67 this month as investors assess mixed signals from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies on whether they will ease production cuts to offset potential supply losses. Russia is advocating a 1.5 million-barrel increase in collective daily output, while Iran, Iraq and Venezuela argue it’s too soon to back away from the historic caps that helped erode a worldwide glut.

“Investors would have taken more of a wait-and-see stance in ordinary circumstances before an OPEC meeting, but factors that are not unique to the oil market, such as the risk of a U.S.-China trade war, could further lower crude prices,” Jun Inoue, a senior economist at Mizuho Research Institute Ltd., said by phone from Tokyo. “If prices fall too much, that could affect OPEC’s discussions on output policy.” […]

Investing.com – US President Donald Trump is ready for further escalation the trade conflict with China and impose 10 percent duties on imported Chinese goods for an additional $ 200 billion, the White House said.

D. Trump said that if Beijing – in response to the previously announced Washington increase of duties on Chinese goods worth $ 50 billion – will take retaliatory steps in respect of American goods, “we will meet them by conducting additional tariffs on goods for another $ 200 billion.”

“More measures are needed to encourage China to change its unfair policies, open markets for US goods, and adopt more balanced trade relations,” Trump said. […]

Bloomberg.com — Asian stocks fell alongside U.S. equity futures and the yen spiked as the U.S. and China engaged in a new round of trade threats. Gold and Treasuries climbed.

The steepest slides were seen in Hong Kong and China — where the Shanghai Composite Index was heading for a two-year low — after President Donald Trump warned the U.S. will slap tariffs on more Chinese goods, prompting the Asian nation to swiftly retaliate. Japanese and South Korean shares also retreated and S&P 500 Index futures extended a decline. The Australian dollar tumbled to its lowest in a year as commodity currencies weakened amid renewed concern over trade protectionism.

The world’s second-largest economy said it will hit back if the U.S. rolls out new tariffs, in response to Trump saying he has directed the U.S. Trade Representative to identify $200 billion worth of China goods for additional tariffs.

Investor concerns surrounding the implications of confrontation between China and the U.S. returned just as the Federal Reserve this month signaled a faster pace of policy tightening and the European Central Bank said it will maintain its key rate until the second half of next year. Trump says he is taking action because China has raised tariffs on U.S. exports and “has no intention of changing its unfair practices related to the acquisition of American intellectual property and technology.”

“Will it escalate from here? We’d certainly hope not, but it’s certainly a risk,” Craig Vardy, head of fixed income in Australia for BlackRock Inc., said in an interview in Sydney. “The numbers we think at the moment are pretty small. These are just warning shots going across the bows as some of these countries try and correct some of the trading numbers.”

Elsewhere, the pound steadied as U.K Prime Minister Theresa May faces a Commons vote Wednesday that could determine the outcome of Brexit talks. Oil retreated from Monday’s gains ahead of an OPEC meeting in Vienna this week. Indonesian markets were closed for a holiday.

Investing.com – Negative trade balance of Japan in May amounted to 578.3 billion yen ($ 5.2 billion) against a surplus of 624.6 billion yen in April, according to the data released by the Ministry of Finance on Monday. Analysts polled by Nikkei forecast an average surplus of 21 billion yen.
Japan recorded a deficit in the foreign trade balance for the first time in three months.

Japanese exports in value terms in May increased by 8.1% compared to the same month last year and reached 6.332 trillion yen. Thus, the rise of the indicator is fixed for the 18th month in a row.

Import jumped 14% to 6.902 trillion yen. Due to increased supplies of aircraft and engines for them from the United States.

Meanwhile, Japan in May reduced the surplus in trade with the US by 17.3% against the same month a year earlier – to 340.7 billion yen. Including steel exports fell by 18%.

Japan last month increased exports to China, which is its largest trading partner, by 14%, in the US by 5.8%, to the European Union by 0.7%.

Bloomberg.com — European stocks edged lower following drops for U.S. futures and Asian peers as concerns grew over the escalating protectionist standoff between China and the U.S. Oil fell before a key OPEC meeting this week, while the dollar gained and Treasuries were steady.

Energy shares led the slide as the Stoxx Europe 600 Index opened in the red, while S&P 500 Index futures pointed to U.S. equities extending Friday’s decline. In Asia, markets were closed for the holidays in China and Hong Kong — where they are more sensitive to deepening trade tensions. Japan’s Topix Index fell the most in almost three weeks as the yen edged higher and after a strong earthquake hit Osaka, one of Japan’s industrial heartlands. Oil extended a decline as Saudi Arabia and Russia prepared for a clash with other OPEC members and allies over whether to raise production.

Global trade is back at the top of the agenda, with investors fretting about the intensifying confrontation between the U.S. and China. China swiftly responded after President Donald Trump slapped tariffs on $50 billion of imports, putting an additional 25 percent levy on $34 billion of U.S. agricultural and auto exports starting July 6.

“Up to now it’s been hypothetical; action has been taken, tariffs are coming and you need to pay very, very careful attention to the impact it’s going to have on your holdings,” Bank of Singapore Chief Investment Officer Johan Jooste told Bloomberg Television. “There are too many unknowns right now to be terribly specific. The thing you do know is risk is higher. The market will take something of a cautionary stance.”

Elsewhere, the euro was under pressure as a migration policy crisis threatens German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition. The pound ticked lower ahead of a parliament debate on the Brexit withdrawal bill.

Bloomberg.com — Oil fell near $64 a barrel as Saudi Arabia and Russia prepared for a clash with allied crude producers over whether to lift output and as China and the U.S. exchanged threats over trade.

Futures in New York dropped as much as 2.3 percent, on course for the lowest close since April 9 after a 2.7 percent decline Friday. Iran says Venezuela and Iraq will join in blocking a proposal to increase production that’s backed by Saudi Arabia and Russia when OPEC and its allies meet in Vienna this week. China said it would impose tariffs on a variety of U.S. goods, including crude and gasoline, in response to President Donald Trump’s $50 billion levy on Chinese imports.

Crude has dropped more than 10 percent from its high in May amid signs Saudi Arabia and Russia are seeking to lift output curbs that have eliminated a global surplus and boosted prices. Meanwhile, traders are trying to digest the impact from both the U.S. and China issuing tariffs on goods and the threat of a broader trade war between the world’s two largest economies. […]

Investing.com – The EU countries supported the response plan to the actions of the United States, which from June 1 introduced duties on the import of steel and aluminum from the EU in the amount of 25% and 10% respectively.

Representatives of the EU member states at a meeting in Brussels on Thursday agreed to impose a 25 percent duty on the goods of American exports totaling 2.8 billion euros, reports Bloomberg.

Among the goods that will be subject to a new duty are motorcycles Harley Davidson, jeans Levi Strauss and bourbon.

In general, the list of products includes several dozen items, including agricultural products (corn, rice, cranberries), food products (orange juice, peanut butter and tobacco products), cosmetics, clothing, metallurgical products, boats, yachts, and so on.

The entry into force of the decision on the introduction of the response fees requires the approval of the European Commission. The EC plans to approve the decision in the coming days, and it is expected that it will enter into force on June 20.

The European Commission said earlier that it intends to respond by proportional measures to the announced US introduction of duties on imports of steel and aluminum from the EU. In addition, the regulator filed a lawsuit on June 1 with the World Trade Organization (WTO) regarding US actions.