市场消息

Bloomberg.com — China’s factory inflation accelerated in June as the price of commodities held up.

The producer price index rose 4.7 percent from a year earlier, compared with a projected 4.5 percent increase in a Bloomberg survey of economists and a 4.1 percent gain in May. The consumer price index climbed 1.9 percent in June, the statistics bureau said Tuesday, matching the forecast.

The rebound in producer prices is unlikely to be sustained, as factory momentum weakens amid uncertain global demand and slower domestic credit expansion. The producer price gauge is forecast to ease to a 3.2 percent gain this year from the 6.3 percent increase last year that helped support global reflation. […]

Bloomberg.com — Asian stocks gained, building on a positive Friday session for global equities, as investors set aside concerns about escalating trade tensions to prepare for the latest earnings season after signs of continued economic strength.

China’s currency rose against the dollar one week after Chinese officials emphasized that they wouldn’t use the yuan as a trade-policy weapon. The dollar slipped to a three-week low, helping reduce pressure on emerging markets. Equity benchmarks from China to Australia climbed and European stock futures pointed to a higher open. Ten-year Treasury yields ticked higher. The pound pared gains after the U.K. cabinet member in charge of Brexit discussions resigned from Prime Minister Theresa May’s government.

The start of earnings season this week may divert some attention away from the trade war that’s kept global stocks under pressure. Friday’s U.S. jobs report showed another month of gains in excess of 200,000, spurring more Americans to re-enter the workforce. Also Friday, German industrial production beat all estimates for May.

Those signs of strength contrast with trade tensions, with China retaliating against U.S. tariff increases and President Donald Trump threatening to impose levies on even more Chinese goods.

The pound pared early gains after news that David Davis quit as Brexit secretary, with at least two senior officials joining him in the move. Elsewhere, investors are assessing the impact of the flooding and landslides that killed at least 90 people in Japan, knocking out electricity and forcing many companies, including Amazon, Mazda and Panasonic, to halt some operations.

Bloomberg.com — U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May set out her Brexit plan, which keeps such close ties to the European Union that it prompted her chief negotiator to quit.

Brexit Secretary David Davis, and his deputy Steve Baker, resigned two days after the Cabinet signed off on the plan, which had the U.K. maintaining tight links to the bloc for trade in goods, but breaking free on services, including financial services.

Here are the highlights from the three-page summary released by the government. The full 100-page document is due to be published this week.

The Irish Border

• The Cabinet reckons it’s found a way out of the Irish border stalemate — the main sticking point in talks — and this will make it easier to get the divorce deal that’s due to be signed in October.
• The new plan would remove the need for a policed frontier between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. While both sides want to avoid a hard border, each side rejects the other’s idea — known as backstop proposals — to guarantee that. The Cabinet says the new plan means a backstop won’t be needed, and this will make it easier to reach a deal. Check out the exact wording here: It’s point 5.

Frictionless Trade for Goods and Food

• A U.K.-EU free trade area that establishes a common rule book for industrial goods and agricultural products.
• The U.K. would “commit by treaty to ongoing harmonization with EU rules on goods.”
• Businesses are pleased with this, and the Confederation of British Industry says it takes on board some of the evidence companies have been presenting.
• This is one of the key bits that helps solve the Irish border issue as checks on food and goods standards won’t be needed at that frontier.

Financial Services

• On services, the U.K. “would strike different arrangements for services, where it is in our interests to have regulatory flexibility.”
• The U.K. recognizes that means the U.K. and the EU will not have current levels of access to each other’s markets. For financial services, it will seek arrangements “that preserve the mutual benefits of integrated markets and protect financial stability, noting that these could not replicate the EU’s passporting regimes.”
• There’s no mention (in the three-page summary) of “mutual recognition,” an idea the U.K. had been proposing whereby finance regulators on each side would recognize each other’s rules as compatible. The EU had rejected this.
• The CityUK financial-services lobby group says it awaits further details when the full document is published next week.

Listening to Barnier

• There will be no race to the bottom on regulations. This is one of the favorite themes of EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier: The EU can’t have on its doorstep a country that’s trying to undercut the EU by slashing regulation. The U.K. commits to keeping “high regulatory standards for the environment, climate change, social and employment and consumer protection, meaning we would not let standards fall below their current levels.”
• The Cabinet has listened to the EU’s demands for a “workable, realistic” proposal and has come up with a “precise, responsible and credible” plan to move talks on.
• Barnier has welcomed the document, but still needs to give it a careful read before commenting. There’s lots in it he won’t like — such as the attempt to split the single market into goods and services.

European Court of Justice

• The court is a symbol of lost sovereignty for the Brexiteers, and May has promised it won’t have direct jurisdiction in the U.K. after Brexit.
• The proposal sees a role for the ECJ as an interpreter of EU rules as part of a plan to have a joint committee interpret and enforce agreements between the two sides.
• Pro-Brexit Transport Secretary Chris Grayling said on Saturday the important thing was that the ECJ loses its role as the supreme court for all citizens in the U.K. after Brexit.

Immigration

• Controlling immigration from the EU was one of the main reasons that Leave won the 2016 referendum and it’s one of the few Brexit issues voters still care about. The government has promised free movement will stop.
• The plan suggests a “mobility framework’ so that U.K. and EU citizens can “continue to travel to each other’s territories, and apply for study and work.”
• The main Brexit-backers in the Cabinet are all liberal on immigration, though May herself is clear that free movement must come to an end.
• The EU says allowing free movement is a non-negotiable element of single-market access.

Customs Plan

• First there were two plans and the Cabinet couldn’t agree on either (remember Maximum Facilitation and the New Customs Partnership?)
• Now the Cabinet has agreed to a third way: it’s called a Facilitated Customs Agreement. The U.K. will collect tariffs on behalf of the EU and refunds will be offered if the U.K.’s tariffs are different.
• It will be introduced “in stages as both sides complete the necessary preparations.”
• The EU has been very frosty about any plan that delegates its tax collection to the U.K. and there are also concerns about smuggling. Germany doesn’t like it.

And Some Gifts for the Brexiteers

• Planning for no-deal Brexit will be stepped up.
• The U.K. will leave the Common Agricultural and Common Fisheries policies. Fishing is a big deal for Brexit-backers and lots of fishermen voted to quit the bloc.
• The U.K. could potentially seek access to the trade pact known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (the deal from which the U.S. withdrew).

Investing.com – In June, unemployment reate in the US increased to 4% from the May level of 3.8%, according to the Ministry of Labor.

The May level was a repeat of the April 2000 indicator, which was the lowest since 1969. The rise in unemployment was recorded for the first time since last August.

Meanwhile, the number of jobs in the US economy jumped by 213 thousand people.

Analysts expected an increase in the number of jobs by 190 thousand and the maintaining of unemployment at 3.8% on average.

The indicator of job growth in May was revised from 223 thousand to 244 thousand.

Experts note that the growth of unemployment may be associated with the end of the school year. The number of unemployed increased by about 500 thousand people.

At the same time, the average hourly earnings in the US increased by 0.2% from the prior and by 2.7% in annual terms. Experts expected growth of 0.3% and 2.8%, respectively. This indicator was closely monitored by the market.

The  participation rate in June increased to 62.9% from 62.7% in May, and changes in this indicator weren’t expected.

The averag  weekly houres didn’t change and amounted to 34.5 hours.

In the US manufacturing sector, the number of jobs increased by 36 thousand in June. At the same time, retailers reduced the staff by 22 thousand people. In the construction sector, the indicator grew by 13 thousand. In the sphere of business services, the state increased by 50 thousand people, in education and healthcare – by 54 thousand, in financial services – by 8 thousand.

The number of jobs in the private sector of the US increased last month by 202 thousand after an increase of 239 thousand in May. The number of government employees increased by 37 thousand people.

Bloomberg.com — Stocks climbed in Asia and the yen slipped with gold as the well flagged U.S. imposition of tariffs on Chinese imports began, something China vowed to fight back on. Treasuries declined, as did the yuan.

Equities rose from Sydney to Mumbai. Chinese shares reversed losses though remained strongly down for the week. Equities in Singapore sank after the government unexpectedly tightened curbs on the property market. The yuan slipped amid scrutiny of policymakers’ next moves. Copper sank for a fifth day, while oil pared recent losses.

The trade war reached an important milestone Friday as $34 billion of tariffs on Chinese imports into the U.S. came into effect. President Donald Trump has suggested the final total could reach $550 billion, a figure that exceeds all of U.S. goods imports from China in 2017. With Asian equities on course for a fourth week of losses, many stocks are trading at levels some technical analysts call oversold and buyers are being lured to Chinese shares after the slide.

Chinese central bankers have sought to shore up confidence after the recent battering for the nation’s assets, with a key policy maker late Thursday voicing support for the country’s currency and cautioning against bearish bets. Still, the yuan resumed its retreat on Friday.

Elsewhere, traders are watching out on America’s monthly employment report, and keeping an eye on Trump’s social-media accounts after his comment before the numbers in June.

Bloomberg.com — Federal Reserve officials said a “very strong” economy warranted continued increases in their benchmark policy rate while citing an escalating trade war and emerging-market turmoil as risks to growth. […]

U.S. central bankers are trying to keep the economy on a sustainable path as growth gets a boost from tax cuts and additional government spending. Minutes of the Fed’s June 12-13 meeting released Thursday showed officials committed to moving toward a slightly restrictive monetary policy, based on their outlook that low unemployment will lift wages and keep inflation near their 2 percent target over the medium term. […]

Bloomberg.com — […] Oil this month rallied to the highest level in more than three years as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ output increase plan was overshadowed by supply disruptions in Libya, Canada and Venezuela. While Saudi Arabia is facing mounting pressure from Trump to do more, America’s oil sanctions on Iran and trade frictions with China are adding to uncertainties as the planned U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods are set to start Friday. […]

Bloomberg.com — Asian stocks declined, with the region’s shares falling to the lowest in nine months, ahead of the planned implementation this week of trade restrictions between the U.S. and China. The yuan slipped despite the strongest fixing to its daily reference rate since October.

Shares in Tokyo, China and Hong Kong fell. Australian stocks outperformed while U.S. futures pared gains. Signs of contagion into European markets were limited as U.K. equity futures traded flat. Treasury yields ticked higher as trading resumed after the Independence Day holiday and the dollar steadied. Gold slipped after two days of gains.

Trader focus is shifting to a busy end to the week, with trade action looming alongside minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting and American employment numbers for June. On the trade front, China has pledged it won’t implement tariffs before the U.S. is scheduled to do so on Friday, accounting for the difference in time zones.

Elsewhere, oil slipped below $74 a barrel as investors weighed tightening U.S. supplies against a pledge from Saudi Arabia to expand output.

Bloomberg.com — Asian stocks traded mixed Wednesday as the yuan recovered from its recent decline, while the greenback remained under pressure ahead of a U.S. holiday Wednesday.

Equities in China and Hong Kong fell, reversing gains within the first 30 minutes of trading. Shares in South Korea and Australia slid to a lesser degree, while those in Japan recovered to close little changed. China’s yuan rose for a second day after the nation’s central bank vowed to keep the currency stable and not to deploy it as a weapon in the trade conflict with the U.S. The yen gained with gold, a sign that havens remain in demand. The euro and the pound both edged higher, while European stock futures pointed to a lower open.

While reassurances from Chinese central bankers helped assuage concerns about the biggest developing economy, lifting its currency, sentiment in the stock market remains fragile after the benchmark index fell into a bear market. U.S. shares were under pressure Tuesday after a Chinese court temporarily banned chip sales by the American firm Micron Technology Inc. in the country. Next up in the trade dispute are U.S. tariffs on some Chinese goods, scheduled to come into effect on Friday.

Elsewhere, oil traded above $74 a barrel and copper rose. The U.S. celebrates Independence Day on Wednesday, July 4. Stock and bond markets are closed, along with government offices.