市场消息

Bloomberg.com — U.S. consumer prices rose less than expected in June amid falling utility prices and a record decline in hotel costs, even as the broader trend showed a pickup in annual inflation that may keep the Federal Reserve on track for gradual interest-rate hikes.

The consumer price index rose 0.1 percent from the prior month after a 0.2 percent gain in May, while the gauge excluding food and energy costs rose 0.2 percent, a Labor Department report showed Thursday. The Bloomberg survey median called for a 0.2 percent gain in both the main and core indexes.

The overall gauge rose 2.9 percent in the 12 months through June, the most since 2012, while the core gauge climbed 2.3 percent, the biggest gain since January 2017. Both matched economists’ estimates. […]

BRUSSELS (Reuters) – The European Commission on Thursday cut the forecast for the euro zone’s economic growth in 2018, explaining this by the tension in trade relations with the US and the rise in oil prices, which push up inflation in the bloc.

The slowdown in GDP growth in the eurozone is expected to affect all major economies, but it will hit Italy harder, the rate of growth of which is the slowest in the European Union, matched the British.

The European Commission said it expects GDP growth of the eurozone by 2.1 percent in 2018 compared to 2.3 percent, announced in the May forecast. In 2019, growth will slow to 2.0 percent.

“The downward revision of GDP growth since May shows that an unfavorable external environment, such as growing trade tensions with the U.S., can dampen confidence and take a toll on economic expansion,” EU commission’s vice-president Valdis Dombrovskis said.

The worsening of the forecast was also promoted by the rise in oil prices, which is expected to push inflation in the euro area up to 1.7 percent in 2018 and 2019, the EU economics commissioner Pierre Moscovici said. Earlier, the European Commission predicted inflation at 1.5 and 1.6 percent in 2018 and 2019.

The GDP growth of Germany and France, the two largest economies of the euro area, is also expected to slow in 2018 and 2019.

The European Commission lowered Germany’s GDP growth forecast to 1.9 percent this year and the next, while it previously expected the figure to be 2.3 percent in 2018 and 2.1 percent in 2019.

The GDP growth of France will be 1.7 percent this year and next. Earlier, the European Commission predicted a rate of 2.0 percent in 2018 and 1.8 percent in 2019.

GDP growth in Italy and Britain is expected to be 1.3 percent in 2018.

Bloomberg.com — Asian stocks rose Thursday after a bruising selloff the previous day, despite lingering concerns around the U.S. and Chinese trade war that show little sign of abating. The yen declined and crude oil steadied after its biggest plunge in two years.

Stock markets from Sydney to Hong Kong climbed alongside U.S. and European equity futures, paring some of Wednesday’s losses that were spurred by angst the Trump administration’s trade stance will weaken the growth outlook. Chinese stocks outperformed. Asian currencies were under pressure amid nervousness surrounding the U.S.-China dispute. The dollar steadied, while 10-year Treasury yields ticked higher. The offshore yuan pared an overnight loss, though remained past a key level against the greenback that prompted verbal intervention from the central bank last week.

Traders continue to deal with the possibility of a further escalation in the dispute between the world’s two largest economies and the impact that quarrel could have on global growth. Washington and Beijing now have about seven weeks to strike a deal or dig in for a trade war that could upend corporate supply chains and raise prices for consumers. High-level trade talks between the pair were said to have ground to a halt, just as investors were poised to turn their focus to corporate-earnings season and growth in the economy.

“Until you get resolution of the trade talks you’re going to see international markets will underperform relative to the U.S.,” said Kevin Nicholson, chief market strategist at RiverFront Investment Group in Richmond, Virginia. The S&P 500 Index will probably trade between 2,600 and 2,800, with support from earnings growth and headwinds from trade tensions, he said. “Commodities are going to be a loser” in the trade war, and RiverFront has cut back its exposure, he said.

Bloomberg.com — Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz brushed aside concerns about trade wars and pressed ahead with a fresh interest rate increase as inflation hovers at its highest in seven years.

The Ottawa-based central bank raised its overnight benchmark rate by a quarter point to 1.5 percent on Wednesday, the second hike this year and fourth over the past 12 months. The statement didn’t introduce any new “dovish” language, with officials only reiterating that rates will need to rise further, albeit gradually, to keep price pressures in check. […]

Bloomberg.com — U.S. wholesale prices rose in the 12 months ended in June by the most since November 2011 as the costs of services accelerated, a Labor Department report showed Wednesday in Washington.

HIGHLIGHTS OF PRODUCER PRICES (JUNE)

• Producer-price index rose 3.4% y/y (est. 3.1%) after 3.1% gain in prior 12-month period
• PPI rose 0.3% m/m (est. 0.2%) after 0.5% gain the prior month
• Excluding food and energy, core gauge also rose 0.3% m/m (est. 0.2%) and was up 2.8% y/y (est. 2.6% gain)
• PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services, a measure some economists prefer because it strips out the most volatile components, increased 2.7% y/y

The figures, which measure wholesale and other selling prices at businesses, indicate that inflation pressures in the production pipeline are firming amid rising demand and tariffs on steel and other goods.

The June index for final demand services climbed 0.4 percent from a month earlier, the most since January, and 2.8 percent from the same month a year ago. More than 40 percent of the advance was due to higher retail margins for fuel. […]

Other Details

• Excluding the volatile categories of food, energy, and trade services, producer costs rose 0.3 percent from the previous month following a 0.1 percent increase
• Energy prices rose 0.8 percent from the prior month after jumping 4.6 percent; food costs fell 1.1 percent.

Bloomberg.com — President Donald Trump faced unusually blunt criticism from within his own party, as one of the U.S. House’s top lawmakers urged him to restart negotiations to stop a costly trade war with China.

Representative Kevin Brady, a Texas Republican who heads the powerful Ways and Means Committee, called on Trump to meet Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping and hash out an agreement to settle their trade differences. Brady warned that further escalation, such as the administration’s latest move to levy tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods, risked a multiyear fight that “that engulfs more and more of the globe.”

“Despite the serious economic consequences of ever-increasing tariffs, today there are no serious trade discussions occurring between the U.S. and China, no plans for trade negotiations anytime soon, and seemingly little action toward a solution,” Brady said in a statement late Tuesday. “I strongly urge President Trump and President Xi to meet soon face to face to craft a solution to establish fair and lasting trade between our two countries.”

The Trump administration had earlier announced what products would be hit by a new 10 percent levy on Chinese products, including consumer items such as clothing, television components and refrigerators. Hours later, China’s Commerce Ministry said the U.S. tariffs were “totally unacceptable” and would force the country retaliate, without saying how.

The action was also criticized by U.S. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch, a Utah Republican, who said it “appears reckless and is not a targeted approach.” “This action falls short of a strategy that will give the administration negotiating leverage with China,” Hatch said in a statement.

Bloomberg.com — Stocks in Asia declined with U.S. equity futures, industrial metals and China’s yuan after the Trump administration released the biggest list yet of Chinese goods it may hit with tariff increases, a move that China said will force it to retaliate.

Equities in Japan, China and Hong Kong bore the brunt of selling after the U.S. released a proposed list of $200 billion of Chinese imports to be hit by tariff increases. U.S. futures also fell, ending the positive tone to equities enjoyed at the start of the week thanks to optimism about the corporate-earnings season. The reaction was more muted in the currency and bond markets, with the yen giving up initial gains and some emerging currencies holding up even as the yuan retreated. Treasury yields ticked higher while copper, nickel and zinc all slumped.

China has yet to say how it will retaliate to President Donald Trump’s follow-through on plans to take the trade war to the next step, though the Commerce Ministry described the U.S. move as “totally unacceptable”. One pattern seen so far in the escalating battle between the world’s top two economies is that the tensions have hit Chinese shares harder than American ones — they are now in a bear market, while the S&P 500 is within 3 percent of a record high.

A bumper corporate earnings season could still support sentiment, with expectations that strong results can complement a recent run of positive economic data and overshadow growth concerns stemming from the trade tensions.

“In the short run it’s very difficult to see what’s going to bring an end to this escalation of tit-for-tat,” Richard Turnill, chief investment strategist at BlackRock Inc., told Bloomberg TV in Hong Kong. “It’s those increasing concerns that are going to weigh on market returns and force investors increasingly to look for more resilience in their portfolios.”

Bloomberg.com — The U.K. economy is bouncing back from a near standstill in the first quarter, led by services such as retailing and computer programming.

Gross domestic product increased 0.2 percent in the three months through May, the Office for National Statistics said in its first publication of rolling monthly growth figures on Tuesday. In the month of May, output gained 0.3 from April.

The figures support Bank of England Governor Mark Carney’s argument that the slump at the beginning of the year was temporary and weather related. Policy makers are considering whether to raise interest rates as early as next month if evidence suggests the economy is expanding fast enough to stoke domestic inflation pressures.

The change in format for the GDP release means that the BOE won’t have a full second-quarter estimate of growth when it meets next month. Carney has nevertheless said that the rate- setting panel will have enough information to make a decision.

Tuesday’s report suggests growth will accelerate in the second quarter from the first, when it slowed to a meager 0.2 percent. Services would have to fall 1.7 percent in June to have a neutral impact on the period, and construction would have to decline 1.5 percent.

Recent evidence suggests that England’s success in the World Cup soccer tournament is boosting U.K. consumer spending. On the other hand, uncertainty over Britain’s departure from the European Union continues to weigh on the outlook.

Construction output surged 2.9 percent in May, the most in more than two years, extending a rebound from a snow-blighted first quarter. Manufacturing production gained a weaker-than- expected 0.4 percent.

Nine of the 13 manufacturing sectors saw output rise last month, with pharmaceutical products and transport equipment contributing most to the gain. Overall industrial production unexpectedly fell, hurt by a shutdown at the Sullom Voe oil and gas terminal in the North Sea.

Separate figures showed the trade deficit in goods was little changed at 12.4 billion pounds. The overall trade gap narrowed.

Bloomberg.com — Stocks in Asia edged higher, extending a rise from a nine-month low amid optimism the upcoming earnings season will be robust enough to overshadow a rise in trade tensions.

Equities in Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea rose after the S&P 500 Index climbed to the upper end of its recent trading range. Regional gains were muted as shares in Shanghai and Sydney bucked the positive trend. Still, the yen fell past 111 per dollar and 10-year Treasury yields ticked higher as risk aversion faded. With U.S. President Donald Trump focusing on a Supreme Court pick and upcoming trip to Europe, trade-war headlines have faded since last Friday’s imposition of U.S. and Chinese tariff hikes.

With JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo among those companies kicking off earnings season later this week, there’s hope that strong results can buffet a run of positive economic data. While trade tension may have put a lid on investment gains, it has done little to estimates for profits which are still expected to grow at 20 percent in the second quarter.

“Strong U.S. growth is leading the global expansion and powering corporate earnings, but uncertainty around the outlook is rising and financial conditions are tightening,” said Richard Turnill, global chief investment strategist at BlackRock Inc.

The pound remained under pressure after the resignation of two of U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s most senior ministers in one day, throwing the U.K. government into turmoil over negotiations to leave the European Union. Elsewhere, crude fluctuated around $74 a barrel in New York as U.S. crude stockpiles were seen declining for the fourth time in five weeks.