市场消息

Bloomberg.com — Stocks in Asia climbed Tuesday on further signs of a shift by China toward monetary expansion and as rising yields boosted financial shares. The yuan tumbled to the lowest against the dollar in more than a year.

Equities gained across the region, with the steepest advances among Chinese stocks after the government unveiled a package of measures to boost domestic demand amid simmering trade tensions. The yuan slid as much as 0.6 percent a day after a record injection of funding for banks. China’s benchmark 10-year bond yield jumped to a four-week high.

Financial stocks as a group were among the biggest gainers on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index on rising bond yields and European equity futures gained in early London trading. Ten-year Treasury yields held around the highest in more than a month after speculation arose that the Bank of Japan may consider fine-tuning its stimulus programs — reminding traders that the direction of major central banks is toward rolling back quantitative easing.

The slide in the yuan has renewed investor focus on the role the currency could play in the country’s ongoing trade tensions with Washington. A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said Monday the yuan is “determined by the market,” after the Trump administration criticized the recent weakening in the exchange rate.

“We think it’s counterproductive for China and others to try and use currency actively as a tool in a trade war,” Johan Jooste, chief investment officer at Bank of Singapore, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “In the short run, they are probably quite happy to allow some depreciation to occur — it might soften the blow — but longer term what you will have is a series of competitive devaluations and you are back to where you started.”

Elsehwere, Google parent Alphabet — a target of European regulators’ ire — saw its shares climb in after-market trading, after reporting rising revenue from advertising. Crude oil held below $68 a barrel in New York and gold declined.

Bloomberg.com — Finance ministers and central bankers from the top 20 economies of the world on Sunday ended two days of talks in Buenos Aires. They began against a backdrop of concern with a burgeoning trade war that had risked spilling into currency markets. The meeting kicked off under the shadow of U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to slap more levies on Chinese imports, accuse the EU and China of manipulating their currencies, and criticizing the Fed of raising interest rates.

Here are some of the highlights from the two-day summit.

Fed Independence
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin addressed Trump’s comments on the eve of the summit that a stronger dollar and rising U.S. interest rates were undermining America’s competitive advantage.

Speaking to reporters Saturday morning before the start of talks, Mnuchin said Trump fully supports Federal Reserve independence and isn’t trying to interfere in foreign-exchange markets.

“This is not in any way the president trying to intervene in the currency markets whatsoever,” said Mnuchin, who also reiterated the traditional strong-dollar policy mantra.

IMF chief Cristine Lagarde weighed in, saying central bank “independence is key”.

“Central bank independence is absolutely sacrosanct in my view and there is ample evidence that independent central banks tend to be more successful,” South African Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Daniel Mminele.

Global Growth Threatened

Global growth continues strong but is less synchronized and faces more risk than before, including that from trade tensions, the G-20 said in its final statement. Emerging markets particularly faced risks of capital outflows and market volatility.

“The impact of protectionist measures already implemented has been — that’s lucky– so far very limited. But the risk of escalation is there,” said European Union Economic Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici.

Law of the Jungle
France’s Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said the U.S. needed to “return to reason” and likened “its unilateral trade actions to “the law of the jungle.”

The U.S. must rescind its tariffs on steel and aluminum imports before European countries discuss overhauling aspects of global trade, he said.
“We refuse to negotiate with a gun to the head.”

Diplomatic Wordsmiths
Despite some of the fiery rhetoric surrounding the summit, drafting the final statement
went smoother than it has in a long time, according to several people who participated. The host, Argentina, said consensus was easily reached on Saturday, a day ahead of schedule. Mnuchin himself said it was his easiest communique.

Cryptocurrencies
Policy makers are still working towards a unified strategy to oversee digital currencies, which have soared in popularity and pose a challenge to regulators who are concerned about their volatility and potential use in money laundering and tax evasion.

The G-20 statement reiterated cryptos lack many of the attributes of sovereign currencies, but delegates provided limited details on any specific and coordinated steps member nations might take to regulate the assets.

Bloomberg.com — European stocks fell and U.S. equity futures pointed to a weaker open as investors digested warnings from the world’s financial leaders about the impact of protectionism on growth. The yen rose and Japanese government bonds slid on speculation about the Bank of Japan’s stimulus.

Travel companies were the biggest losers in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index after Ryanair posted a 20 percent decline in first quarter profit, while futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were in the red as the finance chiefs from the Group of 20 nations on Sunday warned trade tensions threaten expansion as leading economies fall out of sync. The dollar and Treasuries were steady. Japanese government bonds plunged and the yen rose on reports of possible changes to the nation’s ultra-loose monetary policy, which spurred the central bank to offer to buy an unlimited amount of bonds at a fixed-rate operation. European bonds also fell.

The world’s finance chiefs said global growth remains robust and many emerging-market countries are better prepared to face crises, but risks to the world economy have increased. Also rattling investors, Trump took issue with the yuan’s six-week slide to the lowest level in more than year, raising concerns among investors that the U.S.-China trade war is now spilling over into currency markets. The ratcheting up of rhetoric is offsetting a mixed earnings season, which continues on Monday with Alphabet the main focus.

“The current U.S. administration has a clear preference for lower U.S. dollar rates and a weaker currency,” Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. strategists led by Daniel Been said in a note to clients Monday. “This will keep markets wary of further strength in the U.S. dollar; especially given the scale of the recent rally and the large long position already held by the market.”

Elsewhere, traded near $68 a barrel amid concern the escalating trade rows will undercut energy demand, undermining reassurances from Saudi Arabia that it won’t flood global crude markets. Emerging-market currencies edged higher.

Investing.com – Retail sales in Canada in May 2018 grew by 2% compared to the previous month, when their decrease was 0.9%, according to the Statistics Department of the country.

The dynamics of the indicator was much better than the forecasts of analysts, who expected the increase of the index by only 1%.

Sales in May amounted to 50.756 billion Canadian dollars.

In annual terms, retail sales in Canada rose by 3.6% in the month before last.

The dynamics of retail sales without cars was also better than forecasts. In May, sales increased by 1.4% and amounted to 37 billion Canadian dollars. At the same time, experts predicted that the figure will rise by only 0.5%. In the annual ratio, sales without auto increased by 4.1%.

The Statistics also published today inflation data for June

Last month, consumer prices (CPI) in Canada increased by 2.5% in June from June 2017, after rising by 2.2% in May. Analysts had expected inflation to accelerate only to 2.3%.

As to the previous month, prices increased by 0.1%.

Prices for foodstuffs for June increased by 0.7% and by 1.4% in annual terms. Housing prices rose 0.1% and 2%, respectively. Transport costs rose 0.6% in the month and 6.6% in annual terms. Prices for clothing and footwear for the past month dropped by 1.3% and rose by 1.8% year on year. Gasoline fell 2.3% in a month, while gasoline prices jumped 24.6% over the year.

Bloomberg.com — Stocks in Asia reversed losses and the yuan recovered its drop amid signs of intervention from Chinese authorities looking to stem the currency’s weakness.

Shares in China and Hong Kong climbed and the offshore yuan pared the slide that pushed it to its weakest in more than a year against the greenback, as traders said a major Chinese bank was seen making large offers to sell dollars. Equities also climbed in India and Australia, while Japan shares slipped. U.S. and U.K. stock-index futures pointed to a muted start to trading in London and New York. The dollar slipped and Treasury yields ticked higher.

Chinese assets are in focus after the central bank Friday weakened its daily reference rate for the currency by the most in two years. The yuan initially fell beyond 6.8 per dollar, then rallied amid speculation of intervention. The suggestion that China’s policy makers are comfortable with depreciation has stoked a debate about the implications for global markets, with the example of the turmoil of 2015 looming in investor memories.

Earlier, the dollar fell, triggered by President Donald Trump saying he wasn’t thrilled at the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates, raising the specter of political interference with the U.S. central bank. Meantime, earnings season is in full swing, with a mixed picture so far doing enough to propel U.S. equities back toward the all-time high reached in January.

Elsewhere, copper gained after Thursday’s slide. West Texas Intermediate crude rose above $69 a barrel.

Bloomberg.com —

• Bank of Japan remains far from its 2 percent price target
• Questions are mounting about inflation momentum in Japan

Japan’s inflation picked up slightly in June, largely because of higher energy costs. There was little to suggest price gains will accelerate toward the 2 percent target anytime soon.

Highlights

• Core consumer prices, which exclude fresh food, rose 0.8 percent in June from a year earlier (estimate 0.8 percent)
• Stripping out fresh food and energy, prices climbed 0.2 percent (estimate 0.4 percent)
• Overall prices increased 0.7 percent (estimate 0.8 percent) […]

Bloomberg.com — U.K. retail sales unexpectedly dropped in June, though the sector will contribute to growth in the second quarter.

Sales fell 0.5 percent from May, compared with a median estimate of a 0.2 percent gain in a Bloomberg survey. The pound fell after the report, dropping as much as 0.7 percent to $1.2983, the lowest since September.

Still, the quarterly gain of 2.1 percent was the most since the first three months of 2004, meaning it will contribute a 0.1 point gain to GDP, according to the Office for National Statistics in London.

While people increased spending on food and drink, above- average temperatures throughout the month and the start of the soccer World Cup on June 14 kept them away from other stores. Sales at food stores rose the most since 2001 on a quarterly basis.

After a weak start to the year that the Bank of England says was down to cold weather, retail sales have largely been a bright spot for officials looking for signs of a recovery in consumption.

Policy makers are widely expected to raise interest rates at their Aug. 2 meeting. The odds investors place on a hike were little changed after the report at about 78 percent.

Excluding auto fuel, sales fell 0.6 percent. Monthly data for May were revised up. A report Wednesday showed consumer price growth held at 2.4 percent in June, surprising economists who had expected the rate to accelerate.

Despite the pickup in recent months, the U.K. high street continues to struggle. Discount chain Poundworld Retail Ltd. filed for protection from creditors last month, while DFS Furniture Plc has warned of a summer slowdown in sales.

Traditional bricks-and-mortar stores are struggling in the face of competition from the internet. Spending online jumped 14.3 percent from a year earlier, the ONS said.

From a year ago, retail sales increased 2.9 percent in June. Excluding fuel, annual growth was 3 percent.

Bloomberg.com — Stocks in Asia put in a mixed performance as summer breaks appeared to put a damper on trading volumes. The yuan slid as China signaled it was comfortable with the currency’s recent retreat.

A pullback in Hong Kong and Chinese equities had no obvious trigger in trading that was below recent averages across the region. Indexes in Japan closed slightly lower. European futures were little changed. The yuan fell after the central bank weakened its morning fixing, a sign it had no issue with the currency’s slide. The yen held modest gains after the Bank of Japan lowered purchases of longer-maturity bonds for the first time since January.

Investors are assessing a mixed picture from the earnings season that has taken away some of the focus from trade tensions. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in a congressional hearing that the U.S. economy may not yet have reached full employment, while also noting that risks to the central bank’s inflation forecast were “roughly balanced.” Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields touched a three-week high after his comments did little to shift expectations for further monetary tightening.

Elsewhere, oil retained gains as investors assessed conflicting supply-and-demand signals in the world’s biggest economy. Australian employment surged by more than triple economists’ estimates in June, bolstering the central bank’s argument that strong economic growth will spur hiring and help drive inflation to potentially open the way for the first interest-rate hike in almost eight years.

Bloomberg.com — U.K. inflation unexpectedly held at 2.4 percent last month as cheaper clothing and computer games offset the rising cost of filling up a vehicle. The pound weakened as investors pared bets that the Bank of England will raise interest rates next month.

Consumer prices were unchanged from May, the Office for National Statistics said on Wednesday. Annual inflation was expected to accelerate to 2.6 percent, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. Core inflation slowed to 1.9 percent, a 15-month low.

Clothing and footwear prices fell by 2.1 percent between May and June, the biggest decline for the month since 2012, with the ONS reporting a greater incidence of discounting. There was also downward pressure from computer games, toys and hobbies.

These effects were partly offset by auto fuel as the costing of filling up rose by 2.2 percent. Petroleum prices climbed by 2.7 pence per liter to 128 pence and the cost of diesel advanced by 2.9 pence to 132.1 pence, both the highest since September 2014.

Upward pressure also came from electricity and gas prices after suppliers including British Gas, EDF and Scottish Power increased their tariffs in response to higher wholesales costs.

BOE Decision
The figures represent the last take on inflation before BOE policy makers decide whether to raise interest rates on Aug. 2. While a hike is widely expected in financial markets, inflation last month was below the 2.5 percent forecast by the BOE in May.

The pound fell after the data and was 0.8 percent lower at $1.3016 as of 9:32 a.m. London time. Investors cut the probability of an August rate rise to 73 percent from 84 percent on Tuesday.

Separate figures showed producer input prices rose 0.2 percent, taking the annual rate of increase to 10.2 percent.

Factories, however, have chosen to absorb much of the pressure rather than pass it on to consumers with output prices rising 3.1 percent on the year.

House prices rose 3 percent in May from a year earlier, the slowest rate since August 2013. The worst-performing region was London, where prices fell 0.4 percent as Brexit fears and stretched affordability sapped demand.