市场消息

Bloomberg.com — The U.S. economy accelerated to a 4.1 percent pace in the second quarter, the fastest since 2014, letting President Donald Trump

The annualized rate of gains in the gross domestic product was 4.2. It followed the first-quarter growth rate of 2.2 percent that was revised from 2 percent. Consumer spending grew 4 percent, more than estimated, while nonresidential business investment climbed at a 7.3 percent clip.

Illustrating the volatility of some elements of GDP, net exports contributed 1.06 percentage point to the pace of growth, the most since 2013, partially on a surge in soybean shipments ahead of retaliatory tariffs. Inventories subtracted 1 point, the most since 2014, also on soybean stocks as well as those of drugs and sundries and petroleum and related products.

Nevertheless, the scorecard gives Trump a chance to highlight the success of his policies, including the biggest tax overhaul since the Reagan era, which probably boosted consumer spending and business investment. Yet the risks from tariffs wars and a fading effect from tax cuts are among the reasons analysts see difficulty keeping the economy growing at such a robust pace.

Even so, Federal Reserve Policy makers are expected to continue their gradual pace of interest-rate hikes in the care of the economy from overheating, without moving so fast that they could choke off growth. The dollar and yields on 10-year Treasuries declined after the report, which also showed inflation excluding food and energy. […]

Bloomberg.com — The earliest indicators for China’s economy showed the pace of expansion slowing this month, highlighting the reasons behind policy makers’ decision to add stimulus in the face of escalating trade tensions.

“Domestic businesses were dented by tightening financing conditions, while trade conflict hits exports and hurts market sentiment,” according to Fielding Chen at Bloomberg Economics, who aggregates the earliest available indicators on business conditions and market sentiment.

With the funding squeeze hurting domestic activity and the trade war threatening external demand, policy makers have unveiled a package of fiscal support including tax cuts and acceleration of bond issuance for infrastructure investment, while the central bank has cut reserve ratios three times this year. There are also signs that the ongoing campaign to curb leverage is being softened.

An index of conditions at small and medium-sized enterprises from Standard Chartered Plc declined to 55.7 in July from 56 in June, weighing down by a drop in a sub-gauge of credit.

“SMEs’ financing conditions have worsened, with credit access becoming more difficult and funding costs being high,” Shen Lan, a Beijing-based economist in charge of the survey on more than 500 smaller companies at Standard Chartered, wrote in a note. “This adds to the case for more targeted easing.” She sees the need to increase banks’ risk appetite and develop other financing channels to facilitate funding for those firms.

With the escalation of the trade dispute rattling markets, gauges of stock sentiment and commodity prices all indicate weakness. External demand, signaled by the weighted average of the flash PMI readings of trade partners including the U.S., the European Union and Japan, also edged down.

Producer inflation held up, with a Bloomberg tracker signaling robust prices. As industrial output slowed more than expected last month, sustained inflation would help bolster factory profits.

The expansion remained stable in July but business confidence fell further, according to London-based research firm World Economics Ltd. “Even though sales have remained stable in July, sales managers have expressed worry that the overall growth trend can’t continue,” Chief Executive Ed Jones wrote in a report.

Bloomberg.com — Asian stock markets were mixed on Friday, though the regional share gauge still headed to cap the strongest week since early June, following a series of steps by China shifting to stimulus mode.

Japanese equities climbed for a fourth day, shrugging off a decline in Nomura Holdings Inc. following a profit slide. Intensifying speculation about tweaks to the Bank of Japan’s stimulus program saw 10-year yields briefly trading above 0.1 percent — against the BOJ target of about zero — before slipping as the central bank said it offered to buy bonds. Stock indexes in China and Hong Kong ticked lower, with the offshore yuan bouncing off its weakest level in more than a year. The dollar held its advance and Treasury yields remained below 3 percent.

Central bank policy is back at the forefront of market discussions. China’s onshore currency is heading for a sixth straight week of declines as the People’s Bank of China continues to embrace faster liquidity and credit growth. The PBOC told some banks this week that a specific capital requirement will be eased to support lending, Bloomberg News reported.

The European Central Bank said Thursday it will stick to its plan to end bond purchases and pledged to keep interest rates unchanged “at least through the summer of 2019.” In Japan, reports suggest officials are debating ways to reduce the side effects of their yield-curve control policy.

Elsewhere, West Texas crude held gains after an attack on Saudi tankers stoked supply concerns. The Turkish lira took another beating Thursday after Trump threatened sanctions if the nation doesn’t release an American pastor.

Bloomberg.com — The European Central Bank stuck to its plan to end bond purchases as the European Union and U.S. stepped back from a trade war and the currency bloc’s economic expansion remained solid.

The Frankfurt-based institution reiterated it will continue buying 30 billion euros ($35 billion) of assets a month until the end of September, reduce the pace to 15 billion euros from October, and stop additional purchases at the end of the year.

It also pledged to keep interest rates unchanged “at least through the summer of 2019,” and repeated that additional support will come from its policy of reinvesting maturing debt. Attention now turns to President Mario Draghi’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. in Frankfurt. […]

Bloomberg.com — Stocks gains in Asia eased as initial enthusiasm following a U.S.-European Union agreement to avert a transatlantic trade war for now faded. Treasuries edged higher and the dollar steadied.

Japan’s Topix index and South Korea’s shares rose after President Donald Trump agreed with the European Commission chief to suspend new tariffs while continuing to negotiate over trade. But benchmarks turned lower in Australia, Hong Kong and China, and U.S. futures dropped with weak sales at Facebook wiping about 1 percent off Nasdaq futures. European equivalents pointed to a slightly firmer start to trading. Japanese 10-year government bond yields rose to the highest in a year and the yen strengthened amid renewed speculation the Bank of Japan is paving the way for a stimulus tweak.

Trump’s meeting with Jean-Claude Juncker came amid a raft of earnings from U.S. companies, some of which reflected the impact of recent trade threats from the White House. Facebook tumbled 20 percent plus in after-hours trading as revenue and user growth missed estimates and General Motors shares plunged after the carmaker cut its profit forecast on surging metals prices.

Elsewhere, West Texas crude ticked up above $69 a barrel as stockpiles decreased. Gold slipped and copper futures pushed higher.

Bloomberg.com — Asian stocks traded mixed Wednesday, with Chinese equities stalling after a three-day rally propelled by signs of a shift toward stimulus. The yuan was little changed after dropping to the weakest against the dollar in more than a year Tuesday.

Equity benchmarks in Tokyo and Hong Kong gained, while shares fell in Sydney and Seoul, and were flat in Shanghai. The yen and Japanese bond yields were little changed after the Bank of Japan refrained from scaling back its bond purchases at a regular operation Wednesday, following speculation officials may consider tweaking their stimulus policy. Ten-year Treasury yields dipped to 2.94 percent. Oil ticked up on stockpile decreases.

The rally in Chinese equities paused after the Shanghai Composite on Tuesday ratcheted up its biggest three-day gain in more than two years. China’s moves to shore up growth amid the rumbling trade war have helped to improve sentiment in its beaten-down equity market.

More earnings will roll in around the world, while the path of monetary policy is also in focus as the European Central Bank meets to decide interest rates.

“What we are seeing right now is positive earnings news on the back of fairly positive tax cuts and that is encouraging momentum in terms of economic growth,” Greg Daco, New York-based head of U.S. macro economics at Oxford Economics Ltd., told Bloomberg TV. “But we have to be wary that these tariffs have only gradually started to be implemented.”

Elsewhere, Turkey’s lira sank as the nation’s central bank unexpectedly held rates on Tuesday, fueling fears that monetary policy under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s watch will remain too loose to contain price pressures. Sterling held on to gains triggered by Prime Minister Theresa May taking control of Brexit talks, relegating her Brexit Department.

Bloomberg.com — Australia’s inflation remained subdued in the three months through June, suggesting the central bank’s interest-rate pause will extend into a third year.

The key annual core measure — trimmed-mean inflation — came in at 1.9 percent and has now undershot the central bank’s target for 2-1/2 years, a government report showed Wednesday. Tradable goods prices, which are impacted by the currency and other international factors, climbed just 0.3 percent from a year earlier, highlighting the lack of global price pressures.

The report highlights “the disinflationary pressures that have plagued the Australian economy in recent years,” said economist Callam Pickering of global jobs site Indeed, who previously worked at the central bank. “It appears unlikely that this inflation report will impact RBA thinking on monetary policy.” […]

• Quarterly CPI, or headline inflation, climbed 0.4% in the second quarter vs estimated 0.5%; annual CPI climbed 2.1% vs forecast 2.2%
• Quarterly weighted-median gauge, also a core measure, rose 0.5%, matching estimates, while the annual number also matched forecasts at 1.9%
• The biggest quarterly price rises were automotive fuel, climbing 6.9%, medical and hospital services, jumping 3.1%, and tobacco up 2.8%
• Price declines saw domestic holiday travel and accommodation down 2.7%, motor vehicles 2% lower and vegetables falling 2.9%
• Non-tradables inflation, affected by domestic variables like utilities prices, rose 3% in the second quarter from a year earlier

Bloomberg.com — Protectionism is starting to weigh on the euro area’s economy.

Growth in the region softened in July on the back of weaker new orders and deteriorating confidence, according to a survey of purchasing managers published Tuesday by IHS Markit. More worryingly, companies reported rising prices for raw materials, delivery delays and shortages, suggesting that tariffs — or the threat thereof — are already starting to disrupt global supply chains.

A Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing and services fell to 54.3 from 54.9 in June, below economist estimates in a Bloomberg survey.

“Given the waning growth of new business and further slide in business optimism, the outlook has also deteriorated, notably in manufacturing, where the surveys saw worries about trade wars intensify markedly,” said Chris Williamson, IHS Markit’s chief business economist. “The big question going forward will be the extent to which domestic demand can remain sufficiently resilient to cushion the euro-zone economy.”

After U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to slap tariffs on European cars — a key export for Germany and other countries in the region — Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker is traveling to Washington this week in an effort to ease tensions.

He won’t come unarmed. The European Union has vowed to retaliate against any import duties, and China has also said it will match American sanctions on its exports.

At the moment, the euro area can count on falling unemployment and still-robust consumer spending to support its expansion, with some countries recording labor shortages and rising wages.

European Central Bank policy makers meeting on Thursday will thoroughly analyze the data for any hints of more severe risks to the outlook.

“For now, the health of domestic demand seems encouragingly solid, but any feed-though of trade worries to other sectors will be a key area of concern to an already cloudier-looking outlook,” Williamson said.

Bloomberg.com — Bitcoin’s rebound continued Tuesday, as the largest cryptocurrency climbed past $8,000 for the first time in two months, leading a revival among digital currencies that have been under pressure for much of the year.

Bitcoin jumped as much as 4.1 percent to as high as $8,016.62 during Hong Kong trading hours, the highest since May, according to composite Bloomberg pricing. Rival tokens Ether, Litecoin and Ripple also rallied, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. […]