市场消息

Bloomberg.com — Asian stocks struggled for direction after the recent rally as investors assessed the latest developments on the Trump administration’s trade policies. The dollar and Treasury yields stabilized after gains.

Equities climbed in Japan and Australia, while Hong Kong shares were choppy and Chinese stocks slipped. Earlier, the S&P 500 Index fluctuated throughout its session, rising past 2,900 for the first time before slipping back below that level. Rate-sensitive shares retreated as the 10-year Treasury yield moved toward 2.90 percent. The Canadian dollar advanced on a report the country was ready to make concessions on its dairy market to be included in any North American trade deal.

Gains for equities are being tested after U.S. stocks hit a fresh all-time high and Chinese shares rebounded off this month’s lows amid signs of central bank support. Appetite for risk assets remain fragile as hopes for a trade breakthrough between America and China are questioned.

“We don’t know where China is on this,” David Ader, chief market strategist at Informa Financial Intelligence, said on Bloomberg Television. “I tend to be more pessimistic that we are going to come away with trade deals that are going to make everybody satisfied, but we are trading headlines, we are trading the sensitivity to those headlines, so for the moment it looks good.”

Bloomberg.com — A rally in Asian stocks stalled and U.S. futures pared gains as the Trump administration dented hopes of an agreement with China on tariffs after it said it was negotiating a bilateral trade deal with Mexico. The dollar recovered against major peers.

Stocks in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia came off Tuesday’s highs, while Chinese shares underperformed. The yuan dipped as President Donald Trump said it’s not the right time for trade negotiations with China. Earlier, U.S. equities closed at all-time highs after Trump unveiled details of the Mexico agreement that he says will replace Nafta. The Mexican peso fell after initially rallying on the news as investors clamored for details and clarity on where it leaves Canada. U.K. equity index futures rose, signaling a catch-up rally as traders return from a holiday.

Stocks have been testing fresh highs since comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell eased concerns that the pace of U.S. interest rate increases will stymie growth in the world’s biggest economy. The breakthrough on trade with Mexico also captured investor attention and raised hopes of a resolution to the U.S. and China trade talks.

Elsewhere, Turkey’s lira added to a decline Monday when the country’s markets reopened following a holiday. Oil slipped below $69 a barrel.

Bloomberg.com — Asian stocks gained at the start of the week following a fresh all-time high in their U.S. counterparts Friday, as the Federal Reserve reaffirmed a slow and gradual pace of policy tightening. The dollar ticked lower and the yen climbed.

The biggest advances were in Hong Kong, China and Japan. The yuan was stable after Friday’s gains spurred by the People’s Bank of China move to restrain the influence of market forces that have been driving the currency lower versus the greenback. Treasury yields steadied and oil slipped after its first weekly advance in two months. European stocks futures gained, while markets in the U.K. are closed for a holiday.

Global equities are grinding upward despite trade talks in Washington between the world’s two largest economies yielding little visible progress toward a resolution. Investors have fully priced in a rate increase next month and see an above-60 percent probability of another move by the Fed’s meeting in December.

Elsewhere, the Mexican peso climbed after people familiar with the discussions said a Nafta deal with the U.S. could come as soon as Monday.

Bloomberg.com — Turkey’s lira whipsawed before rebounding against the dollar on Monday, shattering last week’s relative calm when local markets were shut for holidays.

The currency dropped as low as 6.0375 per dollar in early Asian trading on renewed concern the nation’s economy will worsen amid a feud with the U.S. and a deepening current-account deficit. The lira then reversed its losses to trade 0.4 percent higher against the greenback as at 7.43 a.m. in Sydney. The currency has slumped slumped 18 percent in August.

“We do not think that Turkey is out of the woods yet,” Jose Wynne, a portfolio manager at hedge fund Man GLG, wrote last week in a note to clients. The bounce in the nation’s assets from the nadir on Aug. 13 was “mostly driven by an engineered technical squeeze in the Turkish lira as opposed to fundamental developments,” he said.

The lira has been the whipping boy of investors dismayed over the local economy and sanctions imposed by the U.S. following the imprisonment of an American pastor. While the central bank has raised interest rates by 5 percentage points since April to stabilize markets, it may need to boost them a lot further to stem the rout, according to Societe Generale SA.

The turmoil is part of an “explicit economic attack” by Washington, according to the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which has resisted pressure to keep raising borrowing costs in order to support economic growth.

Turkey’s 10-year bond yields climbed to a record 21.5 percent earlier this month as investors dumped the nation’s debt. Five-year credit-default swaps — the cost to insure the bonds against default — surged to 573 basis points before dropping to 477 basis points on Friday, CMA data showed.

Bloomberg.com — Asian stocks traded mixed Friday as U.S.-China trade negotiations produced no breakthrough, while the dollar slipped ahead of an address from Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell.

Shares in Japan, China and South Korea rose while Hong Kong equities underperformed. The yuan ticked up after China said talks with the U.S. were constructive and honest. Treasuries steadied and U.S. futures edged higher, with attention now shifting to Powell’s scheduled comments at Jackson Hole later Friday. European futures were little changed and the euro pushed higher.

“Any comments on current Fed policy will draw even more than the usual attention given recent and unprecedented criticism of the Fed by President Trump,” said Larry Hatheway, chief economist at GAM Investments in London. “While Powell prefers to speak plainly and in non-technical terms, he may find reason to take a more guarded approach in order to avoid the appearance of open conflict with the Administration.”

Turmoil in emerging markets, ongoing trade tensions and high stakes going into November midterm elections in the U.S. aren’t steering bond traders away from bets that the Fed will hike rates twice by the end of the year as the economy grows fast enough to warrant tighter policy.

Elsewhere, stocks in Sydney climbed and the Australian dollar jumped after Treasurer Scott Morrison replaced Malcolm Turnbull as prime minister. Oil advanced and is poised for its first weekly gain in two months.

Bloomberg.com — The dollar rallied for the first day in six as investors awaited a meeting of global central bankers after the Federal Reserve signaled no change to its pace of monetary policy tightening. Asian stocks traded mixed.

The greenback climbed against all its Group of 10 trading partners. The Australian dollar fell most against its U.S. counterpart and bond yields slipped as Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is fighting to keep his leadership. The 10-year Treasury yield held declines after the Fed indicated in meeting minutes a readiness to hike again if the economy stays on track. Australian stocks fell, with banks among the worst performers, and Japan was little changed. Shares fell in Hong Kong and rose in China. European equity futures declined.

While U.S. stocks remain close to all-time highs amid double-digit corporate profit growth, traders are keeping an eye on the legal drama engulfing President Donald Trump as well as the resumption of trade negotiations between the U.S. and China. China said it will file complaints against the U.S. with the World Trade Organization just as 25 percent of tariffs on $16 billion of Chinese goods came into effect.

Investors are also focused on comments from Fed chairman Jerome Powell later this week when he speaks at a meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

“With economic data mostly cooperating with the Fed’s base message of continued rate increases driven by tight labor markets, above trend growth and bubbling inflation, it is unlikely that Powell will drastically stray from this message,” BNY Mellon senior global market strategist Marvin Loh said in a note. Powell may provide more details on the neutral rate, curve inversion and balance sheet process, Loh wrote.

Elsewhere, oil steadied after surging on a U.S. government report that showed the biggest decline in crude inventories since late July. Gold declined and fell below $6,000 a metric ton.

Bloomberg.com — The tariffs that the U.S. and China are threatening each other with will cause China’s economy to slow more sharply next year if they’re enacted, underscoring the high stakes nature of negotiations set to resume this week.

The ongoing trade conflict will reduce China’s economic growth by 0.2 percentage point this year and 0.3 percentage point in 2019, according to the median estimate of 16 analysts in a Bloomberg survey this month. That’s if the U.S. follows through on its threat to impose additional tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods and China retaliates with levies on $60 billion of imports from America.

China’s more-than-$12-trillion economy will expand by 6.3 percent next year, a bit slower than the 6.6 percent expected this year, according to a separate poll of economists, not all of which have taken the proposed tariffs into account. While that’s still much faster than other major economies, slower growth will imperil the nation’s aim of doubling the size of the economy in the ten years to 2020.

“Trade war damage is not only through exports, it would also disrupt global supply chains,” said Iris Pang, greater China economist at ING Bank NV in Hong Kong, adding that Chinese factories would be reluctant to invest and expand further amid the uncertainties. “If the tariffs on $200 billion of goods kick in, the government will step up the fiscal stimulus and the monetary easing, providing some cushion.”

The government has already announced a range of measures to support growth, including more infrastructure projects and tax cuts. While officials are heading to the U.S. this week for the first major talks in more than two months, the next round of tariffs could begin as soon as Sept. 6. and President Donald Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on almost all goods imported from China.

At home, the central bank has cut reserve ratios for banks three times this year in an effort to inject liquidity into targeted sectors, and economists expect it to do so again in the second half. The government has also increased spending and urged local authorities to sell bonds faster to boost infrastructure construction.

Economists expect those measures to have an effect. Infrastructure investment growth will rebound to 7.4 percent for the full year, up from a record-low 5.7 percent in the first seven months, according to the survey.

However, the government’s controls on borrowing and property prices will continue to weigh on other types of spending. Fixed-asset investment for property development and manufacturing will rise 8.5 percent and 7 percent from a year earlier respectively, both slower than the paces in January to July, according to the median estimate of economists.

Bloomberg.com — Asian stocks traded mixed and U.S. futures pared losses as traders digested the news of President Donald Trump’s longtime lawyer pleading guilty to federal charges. The dollar maintained losses and Treasuries were little changed.

Michael D. Cohen’s plea deal had sparked mild demand for haven assets and sent U.S. equity futures lower, though there was little sign of a pronounced impact in markets. Japanese shares traded higher with Hong Kong stocks and equities underperformed in China and Australia. Cohen pleaded guilty to illegal campaign finance charges, all but naming Trump as having ordered him to do it. Trump’s former campaign chairman was earlier found guilty of tax fraud, among other charges. Earlier, the S&P 500 Index touched an intraday record high.

“I don’t think that what we saw last night in terms of Manafort and Cohen are necessarily fatal to the president,” Richard Harris, chief executive officer at Port Shelter Investment Management, told Bloomberg TV. “There are quite a lot of things that could continue and he could still ride them out. It takes an awful lot to impeach a president and it may take an awful lot for Trump not to be elected for a second term.”

Next up for global investors are minutes of the Federal Reserve policy-setting policy due Wednesday. Chairman Jerome Powell may provide more color when he speaks Friday at the Kansas City Fed’s annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Elsewhere, crude held on to gains triggered by a U.S. plan to sell strategic oil reserves that highlighted concerns about tightening global supplies. The Mexican peso strengthened on news the U.S. and Mexico moved closer toward a consensus on how to forge a new North American Free Trade Agreement. Markets were closed for holidays in parts of Asia.

Bloomberg.com — The dollar extended a decline against major peers on comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, and most Asian stocks gained after U.S. equities flirted with record highs.

The greenback accelerated a slide after the euro broke through the key $1.15 level amid thin summer liquidity. It had weakened earlier after a report from Reuters that Trump said China and Europe manipulate their currencies as well as separate remarks lamenting the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate increases. Treasuries gave back some of Monday’s gains ahead of a meeting of central bankers later this week.

Equities drifted in Japan and the yen erased gains. Australia’s shares had the biggest decline in the region after the benchmark touched a 10 1/2 year high Monday. The Shanghai Composite Index continued Monday’s rebound when state-backed funds were seen buying stocks to stabilize the market. Earlier, the S&P 500 Index advanced for a third day to close within 15 points of a record. European futures traded lower.

Investors remain on tenterhooks as they await the outcome of talks between the world’s biggest economies on trade that have made their way back onto the agenda. Meanwhile, traders will be closely watching this week’s Jackson Hole symposium for clues on monetary policy, and to see whether central bankers can do anything to help bring back stability after the recent bout of emerging market-led volatility.

“Given the little progress made on the U.S.-China negotiations in the past six months, investors’ expectations are still low,” Tai Hui, JPMorgan Asset Management’s global market strategist, wrote in a note. “On-going negotiation is good news, and that’s what the market is riding on at this stage, but a sustainable agreement to end this tension still seems unlikely at this point.”

Elsewhere, the lira held onto declines over the past two days. Turkish markets are closed for most of this week, which may mean low trading volumes and sharper currency swings than usual. Emerging-market stocks and currencies rose.