市场消息

Bloomberg.com — Asian stocks retreated further on Friday, set for the worst week since March, thanks to continuing worries about emerging markets and the outlook for the technology sector’s earnings. The yen headed for its biggest two-day gain since July.

Equities fell in Japan, South Korea and Australia, while stocks in China posted gains. Technology shares lagged behind, following their U.S. counterparts lower amid concern about the durability of chip demand. Emerging-market stocks steadied after entering a bear market, while currencies advanced. The yen strengthened after the Wall Street Journal reported President Donald Trump may turn his sights on trade with Japan.

Next up is the key U.S. payroll report on Friday, which will offer clues on the labor market’s health and the state of wage inflation. For now, emerging economies hold the key to sentiment, with recent losses fueling fears that turmoil could spill into developed markets. President Trump could announce tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports as early as Friday after a public comment period on the administration’s plan ended.

Elsewhere, Brazil’s stocks and the currency jumped after presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro was stabbed during a street rally as traders bet that the attack will wind up creating sympathy for the candidate and help propel him into the second round of voting. The ruble fell after Russia’s Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev called on the nation’s central bank to become more active.

Bloomberg.com — Stocks in Asia dropped, with a regional benchmark heading for the lowest close in a year, as investors contemplate the risk of weaker growth thanks to woes in emerging markets. The yen gained.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is down for a sixth straight session as declines in Australia and Hong Kong offset modest gains in markets including Indonesia and Malaysia. Japan’s equities underperformed in the wake of a powerful earthquake on its northernmost main island, which knocked out electricity and added to transport strains from a major typhoon earlier this week. European futures ticked lower. Ten-year Treasury yields held at 2.90 percent and the dollar was firmer against most major peers.

While focus remains on efforts by emerging markets from Argentina to Indonesia to sustain confidence, the potential for President Donald Trump to announce another round of tariff hikes on Chinese imports as soon as Thursday also looms large.

Prominent voices on Wall Street are warning that U.S. stocks face headwinds — Citigroup Inc. cited sentiment levels as it cautioned that another pullback may be in the offing and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said elevated valuations and a tightening labor market have driven the firm’s bull/bear market indicator to alarming highs.

“Contagion is a normal reaction,” George Boubouras, director at Salter Brothers Asset Management, said on Bloomberg Television. While valuations are compelling, “they’re going to become more compelling as it spreads a little bit further in the rout.”

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar fell after two more lenders raised their home-loan rates. Philippine stocks had the biggest slide in Asia’s emerging markets as foreign investors are dumping the nation’s equities at a record pace this year as inflation soars.

The British pound held gains after being whipsawed amid Brexit discussions. Gold climbed, while West Texas Intermediate oil held below $70 a barrel on concerns about a stockpile buildup. Bitcoin fell after a report that Goldman Sachs was said to delay setting up a trading desk for cryptocurrencies.

Bloomberg.com — Asian stocks fell as continued pressure in many emerging markets intensified concerns of contagion and trade tensions persisted.

A day after currencies dropped across the region, it was the stock market’s turn in the hot-seat. Equities declined from Japan to Australia, with the slides in Hong Kong, China, the Philippines and Indonesia among the worst. European futures fell. The dollar was largely stable, holding onto gains on the back of robust U.S. data, while 10-year Treasury yields hovered around 2.90 percent. An emerging-market currency gauge held near a one-year low.

Investors remain cautious as turmoil in developing nations grips traders’ attention, with some pondering whether the troubles will spill into developed markets. Inflation in the Philippines exceeded 6 percent for the first time in nine years in August, joining Turkey as another emerging market with soaring prices.

“It has to get a lot worse before it gets better,” Kay Van-Petersen, global macro strategist at Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore, told Bloomberg Television. “When you get full contagion everything gets thrown out and I don’t think we are there yet. Before people talk about structurally buying EM you need to get some kind of comfort on the end of U.S. dollar strength and the end of the Fed tightening and I still think that plays out for a lot longer.”

The Indonesian rupiah hovered at its lowest level since the 1998 Asian financial crisis, while India’s rupee plumbed yet another record low. The Australian dollar received a short-lived boost after second-quarter economic growth beat expectations. Oil held losses amid the stronger dollar and a potential build at the Cushing, Oklahoma, storage hub.

Bloomberg.com — Stocks in Asia had a listless session Tuesday amid continuing concerns about stability in emerging markets and prospects for escalating U.S.-China trade tensions. The dollar and Treasury yields were steady.

Equity benchmarks swung between gains and losses with little direction after American exchanges were closed Monday for a holiday. Stocks in Japan and Australia headed lower, while they rose in Hong Kong and China in an afternoon turnaround. European futures tipped a muted session start. The yen fluctuated after the Bank of Japan increased purchases of shorter-term bonds in its regular operations Tuesday, compensating for a reduction in the number of days on which it plans to buy them.

Emerging markets maintained declines after sliding Monday, with Argentina slumping the most even as it took further steps to restore investor confidence. The Australian dollar reversed declines after the nation’s central bank painted an upbeat economic picture even as it left interest rates on hold. Earlier, the currency fell back toward its lowest since January 2017 after the current-account deficit widened more than expected.

Argentina and Turkey are proving the latest epicenters for crises that are denting sentiment across developing nations, where stocks have underperformed their developed counterparts thanks to trade headwinds and a rollback in liquidity injections by major central banks. U.S. stocks remain a point of light, reaching record highs last month even as the Federal Reserve prepares to raise interest rates again in September.

Meanwhile, U.S. trade negotiators are in difficult talks with their Canadian counterparts over a revision of the North American Free Trade Agreement already agreed to by the U.S. and Mexico. On the China front, President Donald Trump may announce implementation of tariffs on as much as $200 billion in additional Chinese products as soon as Thursday.

“Markets will get over this trade thing until it impacts the economic data, but this will be a volatile for markets,” Shane Oliver, AMP Capital Investors Ltd.’s head of investment strategy and chief economist said on Bloomberg Television.

Elsewhere, oil was stable after rising to the highest in almost two months in London as Iranian crude exports tumbled. The pound steadied as the U.K.’s flagship Brexit proposal came under attack at home and in Brussels.

Bloomberg.com — Asian stocks began September with declines, while the dollar held on to its recent rally as investors assessed the outlook for trade and whether turmoil in some emerging markets can be contained. The pound slid as the chief European negotiator on Brexit said he strictly opposed the U.K.’s current proposal.

Stocks slipped in across the region, while European futures were mixed. The S&P 500 closed flat Friday as gains in consumer shares offset losses in energy stocks, while Treasuries posted a modest decline. U.S. markets are closed for Labor Day on Monday. The yen ticked higher alongside the euro and emerging market equities fell.

With U.S. stocks reaching a fresh all-time high in August and the Federal Reserve set to raise interest rates again later this month, investors are hoping the global economy can withstand shocks from trade restrictions. Emerging markets remain under pressure, with Argentina and Turkey the latest epicenters for crises denting sentiment.

“I don’t buy the ideas that valuations are cheap in these markets” Chris Weston, Head of Research at Pepperstone Financial Pty Ltd., told Bloomberg TV from Melbourne. “My view is to continue trading on the trends — staying bearish on emerging markets. We need to see a perception of the U.S. dollar going lower and clarity that the trade tensions are coming to some sort of a close. I don’t think we’re there yet.”

Elsewhere, West Texas crude slid and copper steadied after last week’s losses. The Canadian dollar retreated after Nafta talks stalled.

Bloomberg.com — European stocks fell following a downbeat session in Asia after U.S. President Donald Trump stepped up his tough talk on trade. Emerging-market shares took another hit, while the dollar and Treasuries held steady.

Carmakers and miners were the biggest losers in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index after Trump cast doubt on the scope of a trade deal between the U.S. and Europe and was said to be moving toward further tariffs on Chinese goods as soon as next week. Emerging-market equities fell a second day, while the Indian rupee dropped to a record and South Africa’s rand slid to the lowest in two years as contagion spread from Argentina and Turkey. The euro edged up and the yen was steady, while bonds drifted.

Caution is returning to markets as global stocks round out a month that saw a solid rally from mid-August. While the Federal Reserve remains on its tightening path and Chinese authorities have moved to stem declines in the country’s currency, the threat of global growth taking a hit from souring U.S.-China relations remains front and center.

On trade, the U.S. president wants to move ahead with a plan to impose tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports as soon as a public-comment period concludes next week, according to people familiar with the matter. In an interview with Bloomberg he also provoked investor concern about the longevity of his recent agreement with Jean-Claude Juncker, which was intended to stave off a broader trade war.

Elsewhere, West Texas crude steadied above $70 a barrel after breaking through for the first time in a month as shrinking stockpile levels in the U.S. pointed to supply constraints.

Bloomberg.com — Canada’s economy grew at the fastest pace in a year in the second quarter as exports surged, though a slowdown in business investment may cast some clouds over the brighter economic picture.

Gross domestic product expanded at a 2.9 percent annualized pace from April to June, faster than a 1.4 percent increase in the first quarter of 2018, Statistics Canada said in a report Thursday from Ottawa. Exports jumped by an annualized 12.3 percent, the biggest quarterly gain since 2014.

Still, the numbers may be a slight disappointment as slowing investment brought growth in below analyst forecasts. It’s a development that will give the Bank of Canada little reason to speed up interest-rate hikes, given the importance policy makers have placed on the need for demand to rotate away from consumption toward business investment. Investors are betting a rate hike by October is a near certainty, with a small chance of an increase as early as next week’s Bank of Canada rate meeting.

The GDP figures “are enough reason for the Bank of Canada to wait until October to hike again,” Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC World Markets, said in a note to investors, calling the numbers “in-line” with expectations.

The Canadian dollar dropped on the report, falling 0.4 percent to C$1.2963 per U.S. dollar at 8:49 a.m. in Toronto trading.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had anticipated a 3.1 percent advance in the second quarter, while the central bank had been forecasting a 2.8 percent gain.

Investment Slowing

Gross business investment — which had been on a run of late — was up an annualized 1.5 percent pace in the second quarter, the slowest since the end of 2016. Gross fixed capital formation — which includes government investment — grew by less due to a fall in public spending, advancing by just 0.9 percent. That’s well below economist expectations for growth of closer to 4 percent.

Growth in non-residential structures, machinery and equipment slowed to 1.9 percent from 11.4 percent in the first quarter — also the slowest since 2016.

Exports however were a big positive and the largest contributor to growth, confirming the sector has stepped onto much more solid footing after struggling for years following the 2008-2009 recession.

Consumer spending rebounded from a tough start to the year, accelerating at a 2.6 percent pace in the second quarter, slightly faster than economists predicted. This suggests households are overcoming concerns that had been weighing on spending — in particular whether the country was in store for a sharp housing slowdown.

A correction in housing didn’t materialize however and investment in residential structures rebounded in the second quarter following a sharp decline in the first three months of the year.

One negative in the consumption numbers may be that the increased spending was financed by a lower household savings rate.

On a monthly basis, GDP in June was unchanged from May, weighed down by a major power failure at a key facility of Suncor Energy Inc., Canada’s largest oil producer by market value.

Bloomberg.com — Asian stock gains evaporated, despite another fresh record from their U.S. counterparts, as trade and geopolitical issues continued to simmer. The dollar ticked higher and Treasury yields were little changed.

Japan’s equity indexes erased earlier gains and stocks fell in Hong Kong and China, while they were little changed in South Korea and Australia. Earlier, the S&P 500 Index rose a fourth day to close above 2,900 for the first time after a better-than-expected reading on the U.S. economy and a rally in tech shares buoyed sentiment. The Australian dollar plunged after second-quarter business investment was much worse than expectations, while the New Zealand dollar slumped as business confidence hit a 10-year low.

Equities have rallied as August draws to a close, with Asia-Pacific stocks recouping much of the losses seen earlier this month. Central bank support in China has gone some way to stabilizing the currency and stemming a rout in Shanghai stocks, though worries remain concerning the U.S.-China trade spat and the pace of monetary tightening in the U.S.

The Korean Peninsula is back in the headlines, with U.S. President Donald Trump accusing China of undermining U.S. efforts to pressure North Korea into giving up its nuclear weapons, indicating his trade war with Beijing is starting to exacerbate geopolitical tensions.

Elsewhere, crude oil added to gains following a bigger-than-expected decline in U.S. crude stockpiles. Argentina’s peso tumbled to a record low after President Mauricio Macri asked the International Monetary Fund to speed up disbursements from its $50 billion credit line to ease the nation’s financial crisis.

Bloomberg.com — The U.S. economy expanded in the second quarter at a slightly faster pace than previously estimated on revisions to imports and software spending, bolstering the strongest period of growth since 2014, according to Commerce Department data released Wednesday.

• Gross domestic product grew at a 4.2% annualized rate (est. 4%), revised from 4.1%; still fastest since third quarter of 2014
• Consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy, grew 3.8% (est. 3.9%), revised from 4%; reflects downward revisions in motor vehicles, nondurable goods, health care
• Intellectual-property investment rose at 11% pace, revised from 8.2%; imports fell 0.4%, boosting GDP calculation, after previously reported 0.5% rise, reflecting petroleum
• Corporate pretax profits rose 7.7% y/y and 3.3% q/q, both the most since 2014, in the first estimate issued for last quarter; follows 5.9% y/y rise in first quarter and marks seventh straight y/y gain

Key Takeaways

The revisions to GDP, the value of all goods and services produced in the U.S., offer President Donald Trump another chance to stake his claim to the pickup in growth, as he did following the initial GDP report a month earlier. Trump had called the numbers “amazing” and “very sustainable,” declaring his policies, including the biggest tax overhaul since the Reagan era, a success.

Even so, the pace of expansion is expected to cool from the second quarter as the tax-cut boost fades, a trade war threatens business demand and the Federal Reserve raises interest rates further. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg project a 2.9 percent expansion for the full year.

Household purchases, which account for about 70 percent of the economy, have been supported by a strong job market and lower taxes. In addition, a rise in gasoline costs earlier this year has eased, reducing a risk to spending.

The continuing acceleration in profit growth suggests corporate America is benefiting from strength in consumer and business demand. That, together with lower taxes, could bode well for further gains in investment this year.

Price data in the GDP report showed inflation was in line with the Fed’s 2 percent goal. Excluding food and energy, the central bank’s preferred price index that’s tied to personal spending rose at a 2 percent annualized rate, the same as in the initial report.

Other Details

• Net exports added 1.17 percentage point to GDP growth, revised from a 1.06-point boost; inventories subtracted 0.97 point, compared with the previously reported 1-point drag
• Gross domestic income, adjusted for inflation, advanced 1.8 percent following 3.9 percent gain
• Nonresidential fixed investment — which includes spending on equipment, structures and intellectual property — increased 8.5 percent, revised from 7.3 percent; spending on business equipment rose 4.4 percent, revised from 3.9 percent
• Residential investment fell at a 1.6 percent rate, revised from a 1.1 percent decline
• Final sales to domestic purchasers, which strip out trade and inventories — the two most volatile components of the GDP calculation — advanced at 3.9 percent rate, same as initial reading
• Government spending increased at a 2.3 percent rate, revised from 2.1 percent; the figures reflected higher spending on defense and by state and local governments; defense spending rose by most since 2009
• Real disposable personal income rose at 2.5 percent pace, revised from 2.6 percent gain
• GDP report is the second of three estimates for the quarter