市场消息

Bloomberg.com — U.K. retail sales unexpectedly increased last month as the warmest summer on record encouraged shoppers to splash out.

Sales rose 0.3 percent from July, compared with a median estimate of a 0.2 percent decline in a Bloomberg survey. Figures for the previous month were also revised up, according to data from the Office for National Statistics in London.

The increase was led by household goods such as furniture and electrical items. Sales of food and clothing fell on the month after strong gains in July. Excluding auto fuel, sales also rose 0.3 percent.

The pound extended gains after the report and traded 0.4 percent higher at $1.3193 as of 9:35 a.m. in London.

The warm weather helped overall retail sales climb and annual 3.4 percent in the June to August period, compared with just a 2.1 percent gain last year, the ONS said. Stores also may have pushed discounts harder than in previous years. […]

Bloomberg.com — New Zealand’s economy grew at the fastest pace in two years in the second quarter, prompting markets to pare bets on an interest-rate cut. The currency rose to a three-week high.

While growth exceeded the Reserve Bank’s 0.5 percent forecast, the central bank may still keep the option of a rate cut on the table amid a slump in business confidence that could damp activity in the medium term. The RBNZ has said it’s closely watching developments in the current quarter, when it wants to see evidence that fiscal stimulus is boosting growth. […]

Bloomberg.com — A rally in Asian stocks weakened on Thursday as rising U.S. Treasury yields threatened to pose a fresh test for equity investors. The dollar maintained declines against most major peers and oil extended gains.

With little in the way of new leads for equity traders to latch on to and tariff concerns set aside, Japan’s stocks shuffled into a three-month high for a second day. South Korea outperformed and Hong Kong and Chinese stocks drifted in a lackluster session. European futures tipped a muted open. The yield on 10-year Treasuries remained above the much-watched 3 percent mark after approaching its highs for the year. The yen edged higher and oil held above $71 a barrel on declining stockpiles.

Equity markets have so far remained resilient in the face of rising bond yields, suggesting investors are comfortable with the outlook for global growth even as borrowing costs rise along with trade tensions. The 10-year Treasury yield is up about 10 basis points over the past week.

Money market funds are getting more attractive, though, raising the bar for further allocation to riskier assets — read about that here.

The dollar remained under pressure after a report said the U.S. and Canada are unlikely to reach a deal on Nafta in Washington this week. There was little reaction in the yuan after China said it planned to cut the average tariff rate that it charges on imports from the majority of its trading partners as soon as next month. Emerging-market assets continued to rally off the lows seen earlier this month as some investors suggested the rout was overdone.

Elsewhere, the New Zealand dollar rose as economic growth topped estimates.

Bloomberg.com — Stocks extended a rally in Asia as investors wagered the world’s two-biggest economies have time to iron out trade differences in the wake of the latest salvos on tariffs. The yuan advanced as Premier Li Keqiang said China won’t devalue its currency.

Equities in Japan climbed to a three-month high and shares in Hong Kong and China rose. That built on a rally that began in Asia Tuesday and extended into the U.S. session despite the U.S.-China trade war deepening as Beijing announced retaliatory tariffs on $60 billion of U.S. goods and the Trump administration threatened duties on virtually all Chinese imports. The dollar dipped and Treasuries were steady. European equity-index futures climbed.

The threat to global growth remains, though investors have now had months to take a view on the trade war and many assets are already pricing in rising tensions, helping to cushion the impact from the latest blows. The S&P 500 Index registered its biggest gain in almost three weeks, led by technology stocks, which had been hammered in Monday’s session. Treasuries held on to losses that pushed the yield on 10-year U.S. bonds above 3 percent.

“It’s more likely that there will be some negotiated resolution coming through in the near term,” George Schultze, founder and CEO of Schultze Asset Management in New York, told Bloomberg TV. “Cooler heads will eventually prevail because otherwise both sides are shooting themselves in the foot by taking these extreme stances and going back and forth with tit-for-tat tariffs.”

Elsewhere, oil retained the bulk of gains triggered by Saudi Arabia’s expression of comfort with Brent oil prices rising above $80 a barrel. West Texas crude briefly breached $70 a barrel. The yen was steady after the Bank of Japan left its policy unchanged, keeping monetary stimulus in place. And President Donald Trump praised North Korean leader Kim Jong Un for agreeing to further steps toward giving up his nuclear weapons, signaling that stalled negotiations might get back on track.

Bloomberg.com — Welcome to Tuesday, Asia. Here’s the latest news from Bloomberg Economics:

• The Trump administration will slap a 10 percent tariff on about $200 billion in Chinese goods next week, and more than double the rate in 2019, setting up what could be a prolonged trade war between the world’s two biggest economies.
• The Bank of Japan’s high-wire act: We surveyed economists and market strategists on what the end game could look like for the world’s most aggressive monetary stimulus of the modern era.
• China’s ever-growing money market funds are posing an increasing problem for the nation’s central bank.
• Workers in the world’s richest countries are getting their biggest pay bump in a decade, a step toward solving a labor market puzzle that’s unnerving central bankers.
• India’s falling currency is posing a problem for Prime Minister Narendra Modi; meanwhile, the government is considering merging three state-run lenders.
• By now, many people have heard of the replication crisis in psychology. Something similar is happening in economics.

Bloomberg.com — U.S. stocks tumbled the most in a month as investors grappled with the latest American threats to expand tariffs on Chinese goods. The dollar slipped and emerging-market currencies declined.

The S&P 500 Index retreated Monday after five straight days of gains, with technology companies including Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp. leading decliners. Semiconductor stocks also slumped, and the Nasdaq 100 Index saw its biggest drop since June. Investors sought refuge in consumer-staple and energy stocks such as Procter & Gamble Co. and Exxon Mobil Corp.

Shares in Hong Kong and China declined on news that President Donald Trump had instructed aides to proceed with tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese products. Beijing has already said it will retaliate, according to people familiar with the decision. Trump said he would make an announcement on China trade after U.S. financial markets close.

“The vector for trade-related global equity weakness today is tech, rather than China and emerging markets,” said Naufal Sanaullah, chief macro strategist at EIA All Weather Partners. “If the recent weakness in U.S. tech represents sufficient digestion of 10 percent tariffs on another $200 billion in Chinese imports, then any announcement could mark a short-term bottom in tech and it becomes all about the U.S. dollar again.”

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed higher, with fashion store Hennes & Mauritz AB beating forecasts to help retailers outperform. Italian bonds rallied while other core European debt turned lower. Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields hovered just under 3 percent.

Elsewhere, oil wavered as international supply concerns were overshadowed by a looming demand drop. Emerging-market stocks weakened and their currencies were led lower by a slide in India’s rupee, South Korea’s won and Turkey’s lira. Base metals including copper as the looming trade conflict spurred concerns about demand.

Bloomberg.com — Stocks in Asia fell with emerging-market currencies after the latest U.S. move to place a further tranche of tariffs on Chinese goods and amid signs some central banks are struggling to stabilize their currencies. The dollar maintained gains.

Shares in Hong Kong and China led declines, with Japanese markets closed for a holiday, after news that President Donald Trump instructed aides to proceed with tariffs on about $200 billion more in Chinese products. Copper and nickel dragged industrial metals lower, while emerging-market currencies weakened, led by a slide in India’s rupee and the Korean won. Futures signaled small losses for stocks when trading starts in London and New York. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 3 percent on Friday.

Equities in Asia had made an attempt to rebound at the end of last week amid some signs the U.S. and China will enter talks and calm trade concerns. That was upended Friday when people familiar with the matter said Trump gave his aides instructions to proceed with more tariffs despite his Treasury Secretary’s attempt to restart talks with Beijing. China is considering declining the Trump administration’s offer of trade talks later this month after this fresh threats of tariffs from Washington, the Wall Street Journal reported.

India’s rupee tumbled as traders deemed the latest measures by the authorities to rein in the currency’s decline as inadequate. Read more on that here.

Elsewhere, oil pared gains from Friday ahead of an OPEC meeting in Algiers. Russian and Saudi Arabian energy ministers met in Moscow at the weekend and both confirmed a commitment to stability in the market.

Bloomberg.com — U.S. retail sales rose by less than forecast in August following an upwardly revised July gain as purchases of automobiles and clothing fell, suggesting households took a breather from spending.

The value of overall sales climbed 0.1 percent from the prior month after a 0.7 percent increase in July, Commerce Department figures showed Friday. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 0.4 percent gain.

Combined results from July and August indicate support from a strong job market and more after-tax pay during the back-to- school shopping season. While household spending, the biggest part of the economy, continues to drive economic growth this quarter, still-tepid pay gains and higher borrowing costs are among reasons why it’s projected to cool from its second-quarter pace.

The Commerce Department figures aren’t adjusted for price changes. The data indicated that the biggest plunge in clothing prices since 1949 depressed August results, at the same time as higher gasoline costs gave them a boost.

Sales fell 1.7 percent at clothing stores, the biggest drop since February 2017. In contrast, receipts climbed 1.7 percent at filling stations, as Labor Department consumer-price data showed seasonally adjusted gasoline prices increased 3 percent, the most since April.

Estimates for retail sales in the Bloomberg survey ranged from a decline of 0.1 percent to a gain of 0.7 percent. […]

Bloomberg.com — Asian stocks extended a rally after their recent battering drove valuations to a two-year low, following a technology-supported advance in U.S. equities. The dollar held declines after U.S. inflation unexpectedly cooled in August.

With the dollar heading for its biggest weekly loss since February, prospects for U.S.-China trade talks and action by Turkey to support its currency, it all made for a positive tone Friday. Shares in Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong climbed, while China stocks underperformed. Oil headed for a weekly gain as traders keep watch on Hurricane Florence’s path to the U.S. east coast.

China’s yuan stayed lower and equities in Shanghai did little after August economic data showed the economy in a modest slowdown. China aside, equities in Asia ended the week on a high after enduring the longest daily losing streak in 16 years.

News that the U.S. and Chinese governments are working out the details for a new round of trade talks helped lift sentiment, though it’s far from certain whether meaningful progress will eventuate. U.S. stocks pulled back from the day’s highs after President Donald Trump tweeted that the U.S. isn’t under pressure to reach a trade agreement with China.

While U.S. equities are now “highly priced,” they could still go “a lot higher,” Robert Shiller, the Nobel laureate famed for his analysis of asset-price bubbles, said on Bloomberg Television. “The U.S. is just doing great right now in terms of the strength of the economy and the stock market,” with Trump’s tax cuts and deregulation moves helping stoke sentiment, he said.

Gilt and pound traders were assessing a report that Bank of England Governor Mark Carney joined a cabinet meeting Thursday to explain that a no-deal Brexit would probably see interest rates rise rather than fall. The lira kept most of its gains after Turkey’s larger-than-expected interest-rate hike.