市场消息

Bloomberg.com — Asian stocks extended declines at the end of a torrid week that dragged the region’s equities deeper into a bear market. Treasuries rose and U.S. equity futures fell after disappointing reports from technology bellwethers.

Japanese shares reversed early gains, on track for a slide of more than 5 percent this week. Equities in Hong Kong and Australia edged lower, while losses were greatest in South Korea. China’s Shanghai Composite fluctuated. A decline in U.S. futures showed any optimism for technology firms from Thursday’s session was quickly dented after Amazon and Alphabet results. The S&P 500 Index had risen for the first time in seven days on earnings from Twitter, Microsoft and Tesla. The offshore yuan extended this week’s slide to trade at the lowest since January 2017.

“You’re going to see a lot more volatility,” Con Michalakis, chief investment officer at Statewide Super, told Bloomberg TV in Sydney. “It’s going to be a feature of this environment.”

Sentiment remains fragile after more than $6.7 trillion was lost from the value of global equities since late September as lofty expectations for earnings were tested amid heightened trade tensions and tightening financial conditions. Investors remain apprehensive as a flood of earnings, while mostly stellar, have come with warnings about the future impact of tariffs and rising costs.

Amid discussion of whether the Federal Reserve would slowdown its tightening path, vice chair Richard Clarida backed further gradual rate hikes while delivering an upbeat assessment of the economy in his maiden speech. The central bank is “as near as it has been in a decade” to meeting its twin goals of full employment and price stability, he said.

In Europe, the euro retained declines in the wake of European Central Bank President Mario Draghi downplaying the recent slowdown in economic momentum and Italian fiscal risks, reiterating that growth is returning to potential. The ECB kept its target rate unchanged at zero.

Elsewhere, West Texas oil dipped back below $67 a barrel. Copper extended this week’s retreat.

Bloomberg.com — The European Central Bank still intends to cap its bond-buying by year-end and leave room for an interest-rate increase late next year, even amid mounting signs that the euro-area economy is wilting under global pressures.

The Frankfurt-based institution said it will buy 15 billion euros ($17 billion) of bonds a month through December, with a final decision to end the program contingent on incoming information. Policy makers reiterated that interest rates will remain at their present record lows “at least through the summer” of 2019.

Deposit rate — minus 0.4 percent
Main refinancing rate — zero
Marginal lending rate — 0.25 percent

Attention now turns to President Mario Draghi’s press briefing at 2:30 p.m. in Frankfurt, where he will explain the Governing Council’s decision.

The euro was barely moved by the statement, trading up 0.2 percent at $1.1411 at 1:56 p.m.

“Expect a dovish spin in the press conference,” said Christoph Rieger, Commerzbank AG’s head of fixed-rate strategy. “Deteriorating economic and market sentiment are increasing the risks to the ECB’s baseline scenario.”

A key point investors will focus on is the assessment of economic prospects. Since policy makers characterized risk to the outlook as “broadly balanced” six weeks ago, domestic momentum has weakened and uncertainty around global growth has increased. […]

Bloomberg.com — An equities rout that wiped out this year’s gains for U.S. stocks spread to Asia and looked set to engulf Europe on concerns that company profits and economic growth are peaking amid rising borrowing costs. Haven assets like gold and the yen climbed, while Treasuries held gains and the dollar nudged lower.

Stock gauges tumbled across Asia, pushing the MSCI Asia Pacific Index deeper into a bear market. Futures suggest the sell-off will snare Europe. Japan’s Topix index closed at the lowest in more than a year. The S&P 500 Index erased this year’s gains following mixed earnings reports from companies such as AT&T and Texas Instruments. The benchmark extended its October rout to almost 9 percent, making it the worst month since February 2009, while the Nasdaq Composite Index fell into a correction.

“The fear is palpable in stock markets at the moment,” Greg McKenna, a markets strategist at McKenna Macro, wrote in a note Thursday. “When folks are struggling to explain the driver of a move that means an obvious circuit breaker is also not in evidence. So this could get much worse before it gets better. Collapses happen after falls. That’s the danger.”

Sentiment has been tested in October, with stocks poised for their worst month in more than six years as the effects of trade tensions, geopolitics and rising Federal Reserve interest rates begin to bite. Investors remain apprehensive as a flood of earnings, while mostly stellar, have come with warnings about the future impact of tariffs and rising costs.

“Around the world, equity markets in particular are having to get used to the idea of a higher interest rate environment and the possible impact that will have on earnings,” John Woods, Asia-Pacific chief investment officer at Credit Suisse, said on Bloomberg TV.

Not helping matters Wednesday was underwhelming economic data, particularly on the rate-sensitive housing front with new home sales continuing to slide. Traders also had to deal with reports that potential bombs were sent to Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, as well as the New York headquarters of CNN.

“A lot of people got in the market in January, thought it was going to be easy money and we’ve had two shakeouts,” Scott Minerd, Guggenheim Partners chairman of investments and global chief investment officer, said on Bloomberg Television. “People are getting nervous.”

Still, Minerd said he was looking for bargains in the recent wipeout: “The fundamentals look great. The whole scenario we talked about in August — growth in corporate earnings, the benefits of the tax cuts — it’s all holding up. The big psychological break was when the 10-year note went above 3 percent and all of a sudden it started to wake people up. It doesn’t change my near-term outlook, which is now positive.”

Elsewhere, European politics remained in focus, with Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte doubling down on his government’s budget proposal and U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s cabinet descending into conflict. The pound held losses. Oil declined.

Bloomberg.com — Asian stocks gyrated alongside U.S. futures as Chinese shares pared gains and investors continued to harbor concerns about the corporate earnings outlook in an environment of tightening financial conditions. Treasuries edged higher and the dollar steadied.

A turnaround in China’s markets that initially lifted shares in the rest of Asia and kept the MSCI Asia Pacific Index from tipping into a bear market ran out of steam. Benchmarks rose in Japan and came off their highs in China and Hong Kong, while U.S. equity futures resumed a slide. European futures rose, reflecting a late-day rally that lifted U.S. shares off their lows Tuesday. Oil fell to a two-month low on a pledge by Saudi Arabia to meet any shortfall that materializes from Iranian sanctions. Treasuries ticked higher though yields remained above Tuesday’s low.

Investors are grappling with what’s set to be the worst month in more than three years for global shares. Stocks in the Asia-Pacific region are close to entering a bear market amid a rout in Chinese shares that have been prone to wild swings amid government attempts to temper the sell-off. Sentiment remained fragile after Caterpillar Inc. repeated a warning from earlier this year about rising costs due to higher steel prices and U.S. tariffs. Italy was also in focus after Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said his government had no “Plan B” for its budget.

“We’ve come up upon a tremendous wall of worry for U.S. stocks and stocks around the world,” David Kudla, chief executive officer of Mainstay Capital Management, said on Bloomberg Television. “Concern among investors is the deceleration in earnings growth.”

Elsewhere, the Australian and New Zealand dollars led gains in commodity currencies as a rebound in Chinese stocks bolstered risk appetite.

Bloomberg.com — A sell-off in equities resumed with Asian stocks and U.S. futures sliding as Chinese shares snapped a two-day rally ahead of a slew of key blue chip earnings reports this week. The dollar traded around the highest level in two months and Treasury yields fell.

The steepest decreases were in Japan, Hong Kong and China, where shares failed to sustain the biggest jump in more than two years the previous day. S&P 500 Index futures declined almost 1 percent. Earlier, banks and energy stocks had led declines in the U.S. benchmark though the FANG cohort lifted tech-heavy Nasdaq indexes ahead of earnings from the likes of Alphabet and Twitter. The yen gained and gold ticked higher.

Risks still abound across global markets, from the continuing U.S.-China trade showdown and tension surrounding the killing of a Saudi journalist to Italian budget fears and President Donald Trump’s unpredictable actions ahead of American midterm elections. Equities are looking for direction after a miserable few weeks, and company results from the likes of Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Intel as well as U.S. growth data may provide a stimulus in the coming days.

“Global financial markets continue to struggle to rally as various geopolitical concerns weigh on investor confidence,” Nick Twidale, chief operating officer at Rakuten Securities Australia, said in a note. “With the rest of the world looking much more pessimistic in the current environment,” markets were poised for “a firm correction,” he added.

Elsewhere, crude oil traded near the lowest in almost five weeks. The pound maintained a retreat as the U.K. blurred more red lines in its Brexit negotiations, heightening the danger to Prime Minister Theresa May. Italian bonds pared an advance Monday after the government called for a budget dialogue with the European Union to address their differences.

Bloomberg.com — Stocks and U.S. futures erased losses and European contracts advanced as Chinese equities built on a Friday rally after calls for calm from the country’s top finance officials. The dollar and Treasuries dipped.

The Shanghai Composite Index surged more than 4 percent, set for its biggest gain since March 2016, buoyed by verbal support from authorities that lifted stocks at the end of last week from a four-year low, and plans to cut personal income taxes to support an economy showing strains from the trade war. Chinese President Xi Jinping vowed “unwavering” support for the country’s private sector. Stocks also advanced in Hong Kong and wiped earlier losses in Japan and South Korea. The euro strengthened.

Stocks are coming off the back of four straight weeks of losses in the Asia-Pacific region, with Chinese shares still in a bear market and the trade war not letting up. White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow accused China of doing “nothing” to defuse trade tensions ahead of a likely meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping at the G20 in Argentina next month, according to the Financial Times. Investors are now worrying that the effect of tariffs will start cropping up in U.S. company earnings amid the lack of any prospect for a resolution.

“All sides are digging deeper in concrete and that’s a very dangerous thing; we’re going to see earnings that may start to reflect it,” David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors, told Bloomberg Television. “This is the first quarter where it might become visible in some of these companies.”

In Italy, bond futures opened higher and stocks may rally Monday after a ratings decision by Moody’s Investors Service removed the immediate threat of a downgrade to junk. Over in the U.S., the week will provide insights on the growth picture from GDP data, and potentially some clues into Federal Reserve thinking, with new vice chairman Richard Clarida delivering his first major address.

Bloomberg.com — Asian stocks rounded out the week in mixed fashion as an afternoon rally in China helped pare earlier losses in the regional benchmark. China’s equities rose from a four-year low after verbal intervention by the nation’s top financial regulators, who assured they’ll keep financial risks under control.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed, still heading for its worst three-week slide since January 2016. Declines in Tokyo, Mumbai and Taiwan countered gains in Shanghai and Hong Kong. U.S. equity futures rose, as did European ones. The yuan was steady and the dollar held overnight gains. The euro edged higher alongside the pound as the U.K. and European union inched toward a plan that could help unblock Brexit negotiations.

China’s recent rout spurred the most explicit comments by policy makers to date, with the central bank and other regulators moving to assure that liquidity risks are being addressed. Guo Shuqing, chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, said China will allow insurance companies to introduce products designed to ease liquidity pressures caused by share pledging of listed companies. The comments came as data showed China’s economy expanded at 6.5 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, just shy of the 6.6 percent average forecast in a Bloomberg survey.

Meantime, earnings misses from several U.S. industrial firms and a Bank of America downgrade of the housing sector added to worries that higher interest rates and the trade war are hitting profits. Weak results from Germany’s SAP and Taiwan Semiconductor helped drag American tech indexes lower Thursday, with the Nasdaq 100 index closing down over 2 percent.

Elsewhere, oil recovered from near the lowest level in almost a month after expanding American stockpiles overshadowed tensions between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia over the disappearance of a prominent kingdom critic.

Bloomberg.com — Stocks retreated in Asia after benchmark U.S. Treasury yields climbed back toward seven-year highs in wake of minutes of the latest Federal Reserve policy meeting. The dollar extended gains while China’s currency hit its weakest since the start of last year.

Equity benchmarks fell in Japan and South Korea, while Chinese stocks tumbled deeper into a bear market. U.S. stock futures slid after a flat session on Wednesday and European futures ticked lower. The British pound declined as Brexit talks between the U.K. and the EU appeared deadlocked. The yuan dipped against the greenback as the U.S. Treasury refrained from naming China a currency manipulator, while at the same time escalating scrutiny of the country’s exchange-rate policy.

The risk-off tone across markets highlights the fragility of investor confidence just days after the worst week for global stocks since March. While solid earnings results had spurred a rebound earlier this week, that momentum faded by the Wednesday U.S. session. Meantime, in the latest trade salvo, President Donald Trump plans to withdraw the U.S. from a postal treaty that gives Chinese companies discounted shipping rates for small packages sent to American consumers.

Citigroup Inc. analysts saw no solace in China avoiding the “manipulator” label in the Treasury’s semiannual foreign-exchange report.

“We continue to think that the U.S. is focusing on currency manipulation as an unfair trade practice and that it will deal with China’s FX concerns in the context of broader trade talks,” Citigroup New York-based global markets economist Cesar Rojas wrote in a note.

Elsewhere, oil traded in New York fell below $70 a barrel on supply concerns. The Australian dollar advanced with bond yields after the unemployment rate dropped to the lowest in more than six years.

Bloomberg.com — Stocks in Asia tracked a strong U.S. session after earnings handed investors a welcome distraction from rising yields and trade tensions. The dollar ticked higher and Treasuries were steady.

Japanese, Chinese and Australian shares rose, helping lift the MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares, which last week touched its lowest since May 2017. Chinese shares fluctuateds. Earnings cheer continued after the U.S. close, with profit at Netflix Inc. trouncing estimates. Ten-year Treasury yields traded around 3.16 percent. Oil edged higher amid simmering tensions between the Saudi Arabia and the U.S. over the disappearance of a prominent journalist. Hong Kong markets shut for a holiday Wednesday.

Better results at the start of earnings season from the likes of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Johnson & Johnson and Netflix offered investors some breathing space from worries about the jump in benchmark Treasury yields to seven-year highs. Minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting should offer more clues Wednesday on the outlook for policy tightening into next year. Also helping sentiment this week was a budget agreement in Italy.

“The earnings that came through overnight definitely is something the market has been waiting for to really change the sentiment,” Jingyi Pan, IG Asia Market Strategist, told Bloomberg Television. “But nevertheless, as we move into the final quarter of the year and into 2019, the sentiment remains to be seen.”