市场消息

SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China expressed confidence on Wednesday that it can reach a trade deal with the United States, despite fresh warnings from President Donald Trump that he would revert to more tariffs if the two sides cannot resolve their differences.

In a brief statement on its website, the Chinese Commerce Ministry said China would try to work quickly to implement specific issues already agreed upon. “We are confident in implementation,” it said, calling the latest bilateral talks “very successful”.

Trump, via Twitter, held out the possibility of an extension of the ceasefire but warned tariffs would be back on the table if the talks failed to bear fruit. “We are either going to have a REAL DEAL with China, or no deal at all – at which point we will be charging major tariffs against Chinese product being shipped into the United States. Ultimately, I believe, we will be making a deal – either now or into the future,” Trump wrote in a post within minutes of the Commerce Ministry statement.

Bloomberg.com — Asian equities dropped in the wake of the biggest slide in stocks on Wall Street since mid-October. U.S. futures advanced after China pledged to quickly implement some steps on trade in the wake of the weekend summit in Buenos Aires. The dollar ticked up.

Stocks fell in Japan, Korea, Australia and Hong Kong, though declines were less than the 3.2 percent tumble in the S&P 500 Index. U.K. stock futures slumped. After days of silence on Saturday’s agreement between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, China’s Commerce Ministry said trade negotiations will proceed based on a timetable and it will swiftly execute on items where there is consensus. For his part, Trump tweeted there will be a “real deal” with China, or none at all. China’s yuan gave up some of its recent surge.

Putting a damper on any trade optimism has been a sharp decline in 10-year Treasury yields, to 2.91 percent, which has further flattened the yield curve and served warning that bond traders are anticipating weaker growth. That’s even after Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams on Tuesday reiterated his support for further interest-rate increases and gave an optimistic view of the economy.

The shrinking gap between short-dated U.S. yields and long rates hammered financial shares on Tuesday, and a similar dynamic was seen in Tokyo Wednesday as already-ultra-low Japanese 10-year yields dropped. Treasuries aren’t trading Wednesday, with U.S. stocks also suspended for a holiday marking the passing of former President George H.W. Bush.

Despite recent official data showing continued solid U.S. growth, some traders are betting that the Fed will cut interest rates as soon as 2020. The swaps market has brought forward the timing for when it sees the hiking cycle peaking, toward the end of 2019 or early 2020, a period when the Fed’s own projections indicate tightening will still be under way.

Sinking U.S. yields have been a boon to emerging markets, which have suffered with higher dollar borrowing costs and an appreciating greenback this year. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index of stocks has advanced more than 2 percent in the past week, while the S&P 500 Index is up just 0.7 percent.

“Under the hood of the volatility there are some important changes happening here,” said Jonathan Garner, chief Asian and emerging markets equity strategist at Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong, on Bloomberg Television. “We’re eking out alpha in terms of outperformance” of emerging markets versus U.S. stocks “on almost a daily basis,” he said.

Elsewhere, Australia’s dollar slid after weaker-than-anticipated economic growth for the third quarter. Oil prices fell back below $53 a barrel in New York.

Bloomberg.com — Monday’s relief rally looked like a one-day wonder on Tuesday as stocks slid in the wake of confusing signals over U.S.-China trade talks. The yen advanced and Treasury yields dropped.

Stocks fell in Japan, Korea and Australia and fluctuated in China after media appearances Monday with Trump administration officials shed little light on the specifics of how Sino-American trade negotiations will progress. European and U.S. futures dropped amid fading cheer about the suspension of new tariffs, and the dollar declined against all major peers. The inversion of portions of the Treasury yield curve for the first time since 2007 reinforced the impression that markets are approaching the end of the current cycle.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and President Donald Trump’s top economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, dialed back expectations and added qualifiers when asked about the weekend agreement between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. China has said nothing about the commitment to remove car tariffs flagged by the U.S., nor did its statement mention the 90-day timeline for talks the Americans have specified.

“We have to see what this next three-month period actually brings,” said Dwyfor Evans, head of Asia-Pacific macro strategy at State Street Global Markets in Hong Kong. “It’s all a little bit hazy at the moment.”

In the Treasury market, three-year yields have climbed above five-year ones, foreshadowing the end of Federal Reserve’s tightening campaign. While the more closely watched part of the Treasury yield curve — the gap between two-year and 10-year yields — remains upwardly sloped, it is only around 15 basis points. With yield-curve inversions having been a reliable indicator of past recessions, the move casts a shadow over the outlook for 2019.

One asset continuing to find support, however, is oil, which advanced for a second day in the wake of moves by producers to address a supply glut that contributed to a 15 percent tumble in West Texas Intermediate prices last month.

Some have read the weakness in oil as a signal on demand conditions, however.

“Despite all this noise with OPEC and so forth I personally think that oil could go to $40,” said Michael Preiss, an executive director at Taurus Wealth Advisors. “This sharp sell-off in oil is actually something in my mind an indication — a reconfirmation rather — of what the yield curve is increasingly telling us” about a looming economic slowdown, he said.

Bloomberg.com — Stocks jumped on Monday alongside China’s yuan and Treasury yields after the U.S. and China declared a truce in their trade war. Oil surged on optimism producers will address a glut in global supply.

Shares soared from Sydney to Shanghai and futures on U.S. and European benchmarks climbed more than 1.5 percent after Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping agreed to hold off on the introduction of new tariffs and intensify trade talks. The Aussie and emerging-market currencies climbed against the dollar. Ten-year Treasury yields rose back above 3 percent.

The euro strengthened on news in Italian media that the government may accept a lower deficit target. Crude climbed following a Saudi Arabia-Russia agreement and plans for a supply cut from Canada’s Alberta province.

Trump and Xi promised to halt any new tariffs for 90 days as the countries continue negotiations. The U.S. had been scheduled to push ahead on Jan. 1 with increased tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods. Trump also said on Twitter that China has agreed to reduce and remove tariffs on cars coming into the country from the U.S.

“The meeting that we saw over the weekend was very much positive in terms of market sentiment,” said Kerry Craig, a Melbourne-based global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management of the Trump-Xi talks. “So there’s a small ray of sunshine here but it’s too early to be very positive on the outcome.”

Also on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit in Buenos Aires: Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that he and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had agreed to extend into 2019 their deal to manage the oil market. On a separate front, Qatar said Monday it would withdraw from the OPEC group from January.

Elsewhere, the pound ticked higher even as the threat of a vote to bring down British Prime Minister Theresa May’s government looms should Parliament reject her Brexit deal. That raises the stakes even further as lawmakers begin debating her plan this week.

Bloomberg.com — Asian stocks looked set to cap the month in mixed fashion and U.S. and European futures pointed lower as investors await a crucial meeting between the U.S. and Chinese presidents with the course of the trade war at stake. Benchmark Treasury yields held near its lowest since September.

Shares gained in Tokyo, slipped in Seoul and slumped in Sydney. The S&P 500’s rally faded late in the day on Thursday as doubts remain about prospects for Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping to agree to a thaw in relations. The 10-year Treasury yield was steady after briefly dipping below 3 percent Thursday. Data showing China’s economy that remains in a weak patch had little impact, with Shanghai and Hong Kong stocks rising.

“I wouldn’t be surprised at the end of this weekend if the U.S. and China didn’t announce a concord that basically sat down a path to help resolve the trade frictions,” Scott Minerd, chief investment officer at Guggenheim Partners, told Bloomberg TV in Tokyo. “I don’t think that out of the meeting there’s going to come much substance, but there will be a sort of set of principles that will be established to start the process of bringing an end to the trade war.” His firm manages about $265 billion.

Trump said he’s very close to “doing something” with China. American and Chinese officials have been working for weeks on the contours of a possible deal and those discussions have centered on the possibility of a truce in which the U.S. would delay ramping up tariffs on China in exchange for Chinese concessions, according to people familiar with the matter. The latest twist in Robert Mueller’s investigation threatened to distract Trump after his ex-lawyer Michael Cohen pleaded guilty to new crimes related to business dealings in Russia.

The first official gauge of China’s economy in November showed manufacturing activity continued to worsen, indicating the authorities will need to keep using stimulus measures as economic growth slows. Overnight in the U.S., minutes from the Federal Reserve’s November policy meeting showed the central bank preparing for a more flexible path in 2019.

Elsewhere, Korea’s won held on to this week’s losses as Friday’s interest rate increase did little to assuage concern surrounding the economy. The pound remained under pressure after U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May warned of the prospect of a “no deal” Brexit.

Bloomberg.com — The dollar slipped and Treasury yields retreated, while an equity rally that spread into Asia from the U.S. after a dovish tone from the Federal Reserve chairman lost some steam as investors turned their focus to this weekend’s crucial meeting of the world’s largest economies that will tackle trade issues.

Stocks from Sydney to Tokyo pared gains that were already more muted than the stellar rally in the S&P 500 Index, which surged the most since March. Hong Kong and Chinese stocks erased advances as U.S. futures slid, though European contracts pointed to gains. Emerging-market equities rose to the highest level since early October and developing-nation currencies strengthened alongside the yen. The 10-year Treasury yield drifted toward 3 percent after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell fueled speculation the central bank may pause lifting interest rates next year.

Powell’s comment that interest rates are “just below” a range of estimates of the so-called neutral level tempered remarks made last month that markets read as a signal of more aggressive monetary policy tightening. Investors are now betting the Fed is nearing a pause and eurodollar futures show the market pricing for just 25 basis points, the equivalent of one Fed increase, next year.

“If inflation stays benign, they are probably going to take a pause right after the December rate hike,” Randall Kroszner, professor of economics at Chicago Booth School of Business and a former Fed governor told Bloomberg TV. “Without a lot of inflation pressure, there are a lot of questions about how aggressive they need to be.”

With Powell now out of the way, the market is looking for any hopeful signals on trade from a meeting between the U.S. and Chinese presidents that will take place at the Group of 20 summit in Buenos Aires this weekend. U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods unless they can strike a deal on revised terms of trade. Global economic growth may be slowing more than expected, the IMF warned. Recent data suggest the situation has only worsened since the fund trimmed its world GDP forecast last month, according to a report prepared for the G-20 meetings.

“The next catalyst will be the G-20 meeting between Trump and Xi; we believe risk assets will tactically trade in the green following a tariff cease-fire,” said Eleanor Creagh, a strategist at Saxo Capital Markets in Sydney. “A tradable risk bounce on a paper deal at G-20 will be unlikely to reverse sentiment structurally as the underlying U.S.-China relationship is still deteriorating.”

Elsewhere, Indonesia’s rupiah climbed as the nation’s central bank said it will provide room for the currency to keep strengthening in line with market mechanisms. Oil recovered some of its losses after an unexpectedly large increase in U.S. crude inventories spurred declines Wednesday.

Bloomberg.com — The U.S. economy remained on a solid footing in the third quarter, matching previously reported results, as stronger business investment and a bigger boost from inventories cushioned the worst trade drag since 1984.

Gross domestic product grew at an unrevised 3.5 percent annualized rate, Commerce Department data showed Wednesday, in line with the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Household spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, grew 3.6 percent, revised from 4 percent, on weaker durable goods purchases. […]

Bloomberg.com — Stocks climbed in Asia and U.S. and European futures pointed higher as investors mulled comments from Federal Reserve officials and the chances of a breakthrough in the U.S.-China trade dispute. The dollar maintained gains.

Shares in Hong Kong, China and Japan led advances, while South Korea and Australia lagged. Technology shares outperformed. Earlier, the S&P 500 Index climbed for a second day. The 10-year Treasury yield was steady as Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida backed gradual rate hikes ahead of Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech on Wednesday.

The debate on the pace of monetary policy tightening in the U.S. next year has intensified this week ahead of Powell’s speech that will be parsed for any hints on prospects for a pause in rate increases next year. Clarida said risks to the U.S. economy are “less skewed to the downside,” while St. Louis Fed President James Bullard was more cautious, telling Reuters that officials must monitor possible “cracks” in the U.S. recovery and that growth is going to slow in 2019 and 2020.

For investors, a lot also rides on the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Argentina this week, amid an escalating trade war that’s been keeping markets hostage. Trump is open to a deal with China but is ready to impose more tariffs if the upcoming talks don’t yield progress, Larry Kudlow, the president’s top economic adviser, told reporters Tuesday ahead of the tete-a-tete.

“It will depend a lot about the kind of comments that will come out after the meeting,” Massimiliano Bondurri, founder and chief executive officer of SGMC Capital in Singapore, said on Bloomberg TV. “We don’t expect anything saying a deal will never be found, we expect some formal comments will be made as in discussions will be ongoing, but we haven’t found any agreement as of yet, so that’s likely to weigh on the risk sentiment on global markets.”

Elsewhere, the British pound held losses as it appeared U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May has backed down in a key Brexit battle with Parliament. Bitcoin steadied around $3,800 after plunging 14 percent Monday. Oil in the U.S. rose back above $52 a barrel as an industry report indicated robust U.S. fuel demand.

Bloomberg.com — American stock futures slipped, and gains in Asian equities were limited, after a warning on tariff hikes from President Donald Trump cast a cloud on prospects for a cease-fire in the U.S.-China trade war later this week.

Treasuries and the dollar marked time with the Federal Reserve’s top two officials speaking in the coming two days. Equity benchmarks rose in Japan, Australia and South Korea, but declined in Hong Kong and China, in the wake of signals from Trump that the U.S. is prepared to go ahead with plans for more tariffs. Britain’s pound fell as traders mull prospects for parliamentary approval of the Brexit deal. Oil fell back towards $51 a barrel in New York.

The S&P 500 Index had climbed on Monday amid hopes a strong start to the holiday season will keep U.S. growth on track. But trade remains firmly in investors’ minds ahead of the meeting between Presidents Xi Jinping and Trump in Buenos Aires at the end of the week. Trump indicated in an interview with the Wall Street Journal published Monday that, besides a scheduled bump-up in tariff rates on $200 billion of Chinese imports in January, he’d also slap new duties on the remaining imports that have so far escaped his levies, depending on how negotiations proceed.

Fed speakers will be closely watched for the latest thinking on the trajectory of U.S. interest rates as investors remain on the back foot amid a pickup in volatility. Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech on Wednesday will be parsed for any hints on prospects for a pause in interest-rate increases next year after traders reduced expectations for the pace of U.S. monetary policy tightening.

“Before calling it a true correction, we would like to see increased volatility across most asset classes,” Christian Crête, a portfolio manager at Hexavest, a global equities affiliate manager of Eaton Vance, said in a note. “A large part of the excesses that have been building up within financial markets over the last decade needs to be removed in order to create the market environment we are looking for to change our defensive positioning.”

Elsewhere, bitcoin steadied below $4,000.