市场消息

Bloomberg – Happy Friday, Europe. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your day started:

• Theresa May is said to be weighing a plan to postpone the crunch vote on her Brexit deal in an attempt to avoid a landslide defeat that would risk a major U.K. political crisis
• European Union leaders are poised to turn their next summit into a Brexit crisis meeting, just two days after May faces almost certain defeat in Parliament over the divorce deal. But so far, they’re not willing to offer her anything that could shift the parliamentary math
• Budget breakthrough: Italian Deputy PM Luigi Di Maio is very optimistic on budget talks with European partners as money set aside for the government’s flagship measures was more than needed
• The European Central Bank’s economic forecasts have had big errors over the past five years, raising doubts on its assessment now as policy makers prepare to cap asset purchases, a Bruegel researcher says
• The ECB will offer new long-term loans to banks next year while going slow on interest rates to underpin the region’s increasingly fragile upswing, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.
• Wait and see: While Wall Street traders are now betting against the Fed raising interest rates in 2019, economists are still debating two, three or four hikes. Meanwhile, two regional Fed presidents urged policy caution amid mounting economic uncertainties and recent volatility in markets
• Wrong direction: Donald Trump is losing his war on the U.S. trade deficit amid mounting evidence his own tariffs are part of the reason why. The president has used tariffs as one of his most powerful tools for fighting trade wars, but he’s also wielding leverage with another weapon: uncertainty. Reflecting this, IMF chief Christine Lagarde warned against reacting to every twist and turn, saying a U.S.-China deal will take a “long time”
• Easy again: Interest-rate cuts are back on the table in Asia, with a growing number of analysts this week predicting policy easing from Australia to India as economic growth weakens and inflation pressures ease
• Casualty: India’s economic growth may become a casualty of the tug-of-war between the government and central bank. Over in Indonesia, the Asian financial crisis’s legacy still lingers over the economy, with one key policy restriction acting as a handbrake on growth
• Bailouts: People’s Bank of China adviser Ma Jun has probed the economy for triggers of financial turbulence, and proposed measures including direct bailouts of enterprises and bank re-capitalization should a crisis hit
• It’s U.S. jobs report day, here’s what you need to know

Bloomberg – Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a bullish assessment of the U.S. economy and the job market on the eve of the scheduled release of November employment data.

“Our economy is currently performing very well overall, with strong job creation and gradually rising wages,’’ Powell said in the text of a speech to be delivered to a housing conference in Washington on Thursday. “In fact, by many national-level measures, our labor market is very strong.’’

Economists are forecasting a moderating but still strong pace of hiring in the Labor Department’s monthly report Friday at 8:30 a.m. in Washington, despite some job-market data this week showing the potential for cooling.

Powell’s comments are his final scheduled public remarks before the Fed goes into a blackout period before its Dec. 18-19 policy meeting, at which officials are expected to raise interest rates by a quarter percentage point fore the fourth time this year.

Bloomberg – OPEC ministers discussed cutting their oil output by about 1 million barrels a day, a proposal that would go a little further than Saudi Arabia’s suggestion of a reduction that wouldn’t shock the market.

Under pressure after a collapse in oil prices last month, the kingdom is seeking to walk a fine line between preventing a surplus and appeasing U.S. President Donald Trump.

In one proposal being considered at talks on Thursday, OPEC could cut its own output by 900,000 to 1 million barrels a day and then seek further curbs from non-OPEC partners, one delegate said, asking not to be named as an agreement hasn’t yet been reached. Ministers are studying participation levels for such a proposal before potentially putting it to key ally Russia, the delegate said.

That would be a more bullish outcome than Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih had hinted at early in the day, when he said a reduction of about 1 million barrels a day from the entire OPEC+ coalition should be adequate and “certainly we don’t want to shock the market.”

After four hours of discussions in the Austrian capital, ministers were still poring over proposals and one delegate said it’s possible the group won’t announce a deal on Thursday. Al-Falih had earlier said that “if everybody is not willing to join and contribute equally, we will wait until they are.”

Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader, has made clear that it won’t shoulder the burden of trimming production alone. Its cooperation with Russia shows how much OPEC has changed since 2016 when the two countries ended their historic animosity and started to manage the market together. The alliance has transformed OPEC into a duopoly in which Russia, which isn’t a formal member of the cartel but part of the production-cuts alliance, is asserting its power.

VIENNA (Reuters) – OPEC and its allies are working towards cutting oil output by up to 1.5 million barrels per day but could fail to reach a deal if no compromise is found with non-OPEC Russia, the Saudi energy minister said on Thursday.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries meets on Thursday but is waiting for news from Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak, who flew back from Vienna earlier for possible talks with President Vladimir Putin.

Novak returns to Vienna on Friday for talks between Saudi-led OPEC and its allies.

OPEC hopes to prop up the price of crude, which has fallen by almost a third since October, but U.S. President Donald Trump has demanded it make oil cheaper by refraining from output cuts.

Bloomberg – 113 Days to Brexit, Five to the Vote.

Today in Brexit: May’s whips are furiously trying to convince rebels. It’s not looking good.

Theresa May has five days to pull off the impossible.

Chief Whip Julian Smith is trying to talk skeptical members of Parliament into voting for the prime minister’s Brexit deal, but so far he has little to offer them. One Tory who joined a meeting with him yesterday said Smith was simply listening to the criticism of May’s deal, Kitty Donaldson reports. He’ll meet more lawmakers today. But the government will need something new, and big, up its sleeve to sway the rebels, who probably number as many as 100.

Things are looking so bad for May that Cabinet ministers are telling her to pull the vote, The Times reports. There’s a summit of European Union leaders on Dec. 13-14, which could become one final opportunity to go back and ask for tweaks to the deal, even though EU leaders have made pretty clear that the current plan is their final offer.

Some Tory rebels do want to come around. The argument is that rejecting May’s deal risks ushering in a softer Brexit, a second referendum, or no Brexit at all. It’s an argument Trade Secretary Liam Fox and May’s pro-Brexit former adviser Nick Timothy are both making forcefully — one that’s become stronger since Parliament voted to give itself more power over the endgame.

VANCOUVER/WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The daughter of Chinese tech giant Huawei’s founder has been arrested in Canada and is facing extradition to the United States, dealing a blow to hopes of any easing of Sino-U.S. trade tensions and rocking global stock markets.

The shock arrest of Meng Wanzhou, who is also Huawei Technologies Co Ltd’s [HWT.UL] chief financial officer, is riling authorities in Beijing and raises fresh doubts over a 90-day truce on trade struck between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping on the day she was detained.

Huawei confirmed the arrest in a statement and said that it has been provided little information of the charges, adding that it was “not aware of any wrongdoing by Ms. Meng”.

She was detained when she was transferring flights in Canada, it added.

China’s embassy in Canada said it resolutely opposed the arrest and called for Meng’s immediate release.
The U.S. Justice Department on Wednesday declined to comment. A spokesman for the U.S. attorney’s office in Brooklyn also declined to comment.

The arrest is related to violations of U.S. sanctions, a person familiar with the matter said. Reuters was unable to determine the precise nature of the violations.

Meng, one of the vice chairs on the company’s board and the daughter of company founder Ren Zhengfei, was arrested on Dec. 1 at the request of U.S. authorities and a court hearing has been set for Friday, a Canadian Justice Department spokesman said. Trump and Xi had dined in Argentina on Dec. 1 at the G20 summit.

Sources told Reuters in April that U.S. authorities have been probing Huawei, the world’s largest telecoms equipment maker, since at least 2016 for allegedly shipping U.S.-origin products to Iran and other countries in violation of U.S. export and sanctions laws.

Jia Wenshan, a professor at Chapman University in California, said the arrest was part of a broader geo-political strategy from the Trump administration to counter China and it “runs a huge risk of derailing the U.S.-China trade talks”.

Bloomberg — Theresa May was forced to publish the previously secret legal advice given to her Cabinet on the Brexit deal — and it gives a potentially explosive verdict on the divorce terms she struck with the European Union.

Key Developments:
• Government publishes 6-page legal advice that Attorney General Geoffrey Cox sent to May on Brexit deal
• Advice says U.K. will be legally trapped “indefinitely” in the Irish border backstop, which pro-Brexit Tories hate because it binds Britain to EU rules they want to escape
• Cox: It’s a “political decision” for May, but U.K. could be caught in backstop for “many years” while “protracted” talks continue on future trade deal
• Labour, DUP and Tory MPs step up attacks on May over her Brexit agreement

FRANKFURT (Reuters) – European Central Bank policymakers are debating ways to wean the euro zone off years of easy money, floating ideas such as a new kind of multi-year loans and staggered increases in interest rates, sources told Reuters.

The ECB will have a difficult task over the next couple of years: dialing back its unprecedented stimulus without hurting a banking sector still deeply divided along national lines.

Conversations with five sources on or close to the ECB’s policymaking body showed rate-setters were beginning to come up with ideas to ease the transition, including raising only the interest rate on bank deposits at first and offering multi-year loans at floating rates on a permanent basis.

These ideas are designed to avert a liquidity squeeze feared by bankers and investors in southern Europe.

A spokesman for the ECB declined to comment.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday held out the possibility of an extension of the 90-day trade truce with China but warned he would revert to tariffs if the two sides could not resolve their differences.

Trump said his team of trade advisers led by China trade hawk U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer would determine whether a “REAL deal” with Beijing was possible.

“If it is, we will get it done,” Trump wrote in a Twitter post. “But if not remember, I am a Tariff Man.”

While Trump hailed the agreement with Xi “an incredible deal,” a lack of detail from the Chinese side has left investors and analysts wondering if Trump’s exuberance is warranted.

“It doesn’t seem like anything was actually agreed to at the dinner and White House officials are contorting themselves into pretzels to reconcile Trump’s tweets (which seem if not completely fabricated then grossly exaggerated) with reality,” JPMorgan Chase said in a trading note.